286
FXUS63 KJKL 040402
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1102 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer-than-average conditions continue tonight before a cold
  front passes through Eastern Kentucky tomorrow evening.

- This cold front will bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps a few
  rumbles of thunder to the area tomorrow and tomorrow night.

- A cooling trend takes place headed into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

The cold front is approaching the Mississippi River with the bulk
of the rain ahead of the front entering into western KY.
Widespread showers have been developing out ahead of the main
line of rain over the past few hours up to about the I-65
corridor. Confidence is still high in a rainy day across the
forecast area for Wednesday, have raised low chance PoPs for the
remaining overnight hours to account for showers ahead of the main
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 507 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

While sunny skies and much-above-normal temperatures are observed
across Eastern Kentucky this afternoon, change is on the horizon.
Upper level map analysis reveals that the antecedent ridging has
propagated off to the east of the forecast area this afternoon,
allowing mid-/upper-atmospheric flow to shift towards a more
southerly/southwesterly orientation. The resultant moisture return
should allow cloud coverage to spread northeast out of the Tennessee
Valley as the evening progresses, with mid/high level clouds
arriving first. These winds, and their related advection processes,
are progged to strengthen throughout the entire column overnight, as
models collectively resolve a vertically-stacked low pressure system
deepening upstream of the CWA. The increase in cloud cover and the
tightening pressure gradient should prevent there from being as
pronounced as a ridge-valley temperature split tonight, although
some patchy valley fog cannot be ruled out in our northeastern-most
counties. These locales will be the last to see cloud cover, so
observational trends will need to be monitored once the sun sets to
see how quickly temperatures drop off. If more significant ridge-
valley splits are realized, forecast adjustments might be needed.
Thankfully, temperatures are running much-above normal leading into
this event, with widespread afternoon highs near the 80 degree mark
and overnight lows near 60 (ridgetops and in places where the
boundary layer remains thermally coupled). The coldest valleys could
dip down further into the 50s if they decouple, but temperatures
near the freezing mark are completely out of the picture. Thus, the
greatest impacts from tonight and tomorrow`s mid-latitude cyclone
will come in the form of highly-beneficial rainfall, breezy winds,
and perhaps some post-event fog.

Forecast confidence is high that this system will bring measurable
rainfall to the entire forecast area tomorrow. The well-defined
nature of the negatively-tilted parent trough aloft favors a
prolonged period of deep southwesterly flow above 850mb through
tomorrow afternoon, which will pump a rich plume of moisture into
the atmospheric column above Kentucky. Ensemble mean PWAT values
between 1.4" (SE KY) and 1.6" (The Bluegrass) rank near the 99th
percentile of model climatology data, so there will be plenty of
moisture for the system`s dynamic and frontal forcing to work with.
This moisture will first arrive in locations west of I-75, where a
few generic warm air advection showers cannot be ruled out closer to
midnight. Otherwise, rain chances should spread from west to east
during tomorrow`s morning commute. Widespread cloud cover should
mute the diurnal warming curve (highs are forecast to be 5-10 degrees
lower than today) and thus the amount of available instability. A
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, with the greatest
thunderstorm chances coming immediately ahead of the system`s FROPA
tomorrow evening. The limited amount of instability in this setup is
a very good thing, as surface flow will remain out of the south-
southeast ahead of the cold front. This leads to elevated shear
parameters, but with only marginal SB-CAPE (<500 J/kg) and notable
SB-CIN (>50-100 J/kg) resolved across the CWA, widespread severe
weather is highly unlikely. Along these same lines, widespread flash
flooding is unlikely. The dryness of the past month has left the
ground resilient, with flash flood guidance above 1.25 inches per
hour area wide. Given the limited instability, this rate is unlikely
to be met. Even with the potential for multiple rounds of activity,
3/6 hour FFG comes in above 1.5/2.0 inches area-wide, and forecast
storm total QPF is well below these values. Forecast rainfall totals
(which have trended downward through the past few forecast packages)
are now in between 0.5"-1.25" in western and northern portions of
the forecast area, with locally lower rainfall totals between 0.25"
and 0.50" in downsloped areas immediately NW of the higher terrain
in SE KY. An isolated instance of standing water in areas of poor
drainage cannot be ruled out if heavier rain repeatedly tracks over
the same areas, so WPC has outlined the area in a Marginal (Level
1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. One interesting possibility is the
potential for clumps of recently-felled leaves to block gutters and
other drainage systems, leading to localized impacts. However, this
wouldn`t be true flash flooding, and interests are encouraged to
clear out such debris out of their drains before the event starts.
In short, this rainfall should prove highly beneficial, as it will
help quench any drought concerns and wet the fuels for any future
fall fire weather woes.

The second impact from this system will come in the form of
widespread breezy wind gusts, with both a strengthening 925/850mb
jet streak aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient
contributing to the setup. The forecast guidance suite collectively
depicts 925mb flow intensifying to between 30 and 40 knots tonight
as 850mb flow simultaneously strengthens to between 40 and 50 knots.
At the surface, southeasterly flow will gradually shift towards the
south during the day tomorrow and then the west-southwest once FROPA-
occurs. The higher-terrain locales of SE KY will be the first to see
the stronger winds aloft translate to the surface, and places
along/immediately downwind of Black & Pine Mountains will
accordingly see the strongest winds during this event. There, gusts
are most likely to peak in the 30-40mph range. Elsewhere, the REFS
probability of wind gusts in excess of 35mph are generally less than
50%, with the highest probabilities coming once diurnal mixing
processes takes root tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is not high
enough to issue any type of wind headlines at this time, but an SPS
may be raised in future forecast package for the potential for wind
gusts up to 30mph to blow around loose objects outside. Likewise,
tomorrow`s wind gusts will likely be enough to blow much of the
remaining leaves off the area`s trees. So, be sure take a good at
the peak fall foliage around the area before the sun sets tonight!

A third, residual impact from this system will be the potential for
visibility reductions in the wake of this system. With wet grounds
around the area and winds weakening in the valleys once the front
passes through, locally dense fog is possible in the traditional fog-
prone valleys overnight into Thursday morning. It is also plausible
that this could be more of a low-stratus event than a true ground
fog. If low-level clouds do stick around, they could insulate the
forecast low temperatures and prevent widespread fog. The fog would
cause visibility reductions along the area`s highways, which are
mostly in valley locations. The stratus could hang over the area`s
hilltops and cause visibility reductions on mountain drives and at
the area`s airports. So, satellite and observational trends will
need to be monitored tomorrow evening to determine which of these
two phenomena (or a combination of both) is favored.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 523 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will be in store over the CONUS
through early next week. A positively tilted trough will start out
aligned from the Great Lakes through the southern Plains, with an
associated dampening surface low positioned over Lake Superior. The
upper trough will gradually migrate eastward, with a cutoff low
likely emerging over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cold
front will cross the Commonwealth on Friday. Troughing will be
reinforced east of the Mississippi River, as additional short wave
energy traverses southeast from the central CONUS to the
Southeast within the southern stream. In the northern stream, the
troughing will be bolstered by energy translating across
southeastern Canada. At the surface, broader high pressure will
migrate south from the Midwest this weekend to the lower
Mississippi Valley by early next week, with cooler and drier
conditions seen across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Sensible weather will feature one more day of 70s for highs across
most of eastern Kentucky on Thursday. Generally dry weather is
expected, besides just enough lingering low level moisture that
could promote some light rain showers early across our southeast. As
a secondary cold front approaches late Thursday night into
Friday, some light rain chances may be renewed across our
southeast, although model guidance has been trending drier, so
this may be more of a temporary increase in clouds only. Cooler
and drier conditions will then be the story as we head into the
weekend, with highs returning to the upper 50s and lower 60s,
while lows drop back into the 30s. Cloud cover will dictate how
cold the valleys get both Saturday and Sunday nights. At this
time, Sunday night looks like the colder night, with some of the
deeper valleys dipping to near or just below the freezing mark.
More modest return flow ensues by next Tuesday, with highs
moderating to the lower and middle 60s. Generally dry weather
will also continue to hold on through that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the area through tonight, although
changes are anticipated during the day on Wednesday. As
atmospheric moisture increases ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, clouds will thicken, with ceilings gradually
lowering towards MVFR thresholds tomorrow afternoon. Expect rain
showers to spread from west to east in the latter half of the
forecast period, with strengthening southerly winds in this same
time frame. Winds will strengthen aloft first, so some marginal
LLWS is possible late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Surface
winds should be the lightest at northeastern terminals like KJKL
tonight, so confidence in LLWS is greatest there. Once the
stronger winds start to mix down after dawn tomorrow, any LLWS
should give way to surface wind gusts of 15-25 knots. So, in
short, expect flight conditions to deteriorate as a storm system
approaches the area tomorrow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DISINGER/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...MARCUS/DISINGER/GEERTSON