500
FXUS63 KJKL 151910
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
310 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog is favored to develop tonight where skies
  partially clear.

- Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the
  new week, with showers and thunderstorms expected on most days.

- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low-
  end threat of excessive rainfall, with isolated occurrences of
  high water or flash flooding possible into Monday.

- Look for temperature to climb distinctly above normal for
  daytime highs for the latter part of the new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

At 300 PM EDT, numerous showers and thunderstorm, some with heavy
downpours, continue to drift eastward across the JKL forecast
area as an upper level low (situated near Cincinnati) dissipates
into a quasi-zonal flow aloft. The system`s increasingly amorphous
surface low is presently centered near Huntington, WV. A trailing
subtle cold frontal boundary trails behind the low, roughly
draped along the Lower Ohio River. The boundary extends further
west southwestward to over northeastern Oklahoma where a weak wave
of low pressure is developing under a more substantial shortwave
trough aloft.

Expect deep convection to continue through early evening before
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating and upper level
forcing. In fact, a pocket of weak negative vorticity advection
behind the remnant vorticity max of the dissipating upper low should
favor areas of weak subsidence in the lower/mid troposphere and
thus partial clearing overnight. Given the suppressed temperatures
and saturated ground conditions from today`s shower and
thunderstorm activity, it won`t take much time for radiation fog
to develop and become locally dense, should clearing materialize.
Keep in mind that if fog develops early enough, it could lift into
a low stratus deck for some locales by late in the night.
Temperatures will remain very mild and muggy overnight, only
settling back into the mid/upper 60s.

Looking ahead to Monday and Monday night, the frontal boundary
associated with the former upper low will remain stalled to our
northwest as the next upper level trough and wave of surface low
pressure ride toward and then up the Lower Ohio Valley. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop again on Monday as weak forcing
returns and diurnal heating destabilizes the soupy air mass. While
coverage of convection is likely to wane somewhat Monday evening,
the passing wave of surface low pressure will likely keep at least
scattered convection going Monday night. Any showers or storms on
Monday/Monday night could produce briefly heavy rainfall,
potentially leading to isolated instances of high water or flash
flooding. Monday`s high temperatures are forecast to reach lower 80s
while temperatures settle back into the mid and upper 60s for Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

The main adjustments to the extended were to restore some terrain
detail to the NBM temperatures each night after Thursday. Did
also keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms around into
Saturday afternoon with some uncertainty as to the ability of a
late week front to clear the threat out of the area entirely.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in
rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with
a trough in weaker flow extending southward over the Mississippi
Valley. To the east of the trough subtle ridging is expected over
eastern KY. At the surface, a weak, nearly stationary frontal
boundary is forecast to be laid out near or just south of the Ohio
River along the northern border of KY, with a warm and humid air
mass still in place over our area. The ridging aloft, along with
stable surface air in the morning, will probably keep the first
part of Monday dry. However, latest model runs weaken the ridge
and shift the entire regime slowly eastward, which would allow
the trough to provide some upper level support for precip for the
later part of the day, and a likely POP is being carried. Loss of
instability in the diurnal cycle should allow for a decreasing
trend in precip Monday evening.

The upper trough will still be slowly approaching from the west on
Tuesday, and with another diurnal heating cycle, another increase
in convective precip is expected for the afternoon. The weak upper
trough should finally be moving to our east on Tuesday night, and
along with the diurnal loss of instability, a more pronounced
decrease in precip is expected.

Conditions aloft will be more benign on Wednesday, with weak and
relatively flat flow. At the surface, the prior frontal boundary
should be gone, but another cold front will be crossing the
Midwest and bringing us an increase in low level southwesterly
flow as the pressure gradient tightens in front of it. This front
will be supported by a slightly more significant upper level
trough moving east across the CONUS (moving onshore on the West
Coast on Monday). Without any change in air mass and no cap
expected, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop, but probably less coverage than the preceding couple of
days. The cold front and its supporting upper trough are forecast
to pass through on Thursday afternoon or evening, likely bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive for
Friday into Saturday, but the amount of cooling and drying is
unclear, with models not agreeing on the extent of strengthening
of the upper trough as it passes by. Regardless of the strength,
it should be enough to finally bring at least a couple days of
dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to drift across
eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance time and expect those to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon before gradually
diminishing in the evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Generally expect high end MVFR to VFR conditions through sunset
outside of convection. As showers and storms pass overhead, expect
brief drops to MVFR/IFR or worse at terminals. Fog/low stratus is
likely to redevelop tonight with significant reductions in
visibility and/or ceilings possible. Outside of storms, winds will
be around 5 kts from the southwest - becoming light again after
dark.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF