551
FXUS63 KJKL 281604
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1204 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and mainly dry weather continues through the end of
  the work week with cool, comfortable nights.

- Labor Day weekend will remain mostly dry, though a few isolated
  showers may develop Sunday afternoon, especially in southeastern
  Kentucky.

- While better chances for rain arrive early next week, any
  rainfall looks too light to provide significant relief to the
  current drought conditions near Lake Cumberland.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

A quick update was made to refresh the forecast to reflect
afternoon wording and the latest hourly trends. Otherwise, the
forecast remains largely unchanged. Still expect clouds and
perhaps a few sprinkles (now approaching Cincinnati) to affect
locations north of the Mountain Parkway later this afternoon and
early evening. A brief period of light rain cannot be entirely
ruled out in Fleming and adjacent counties.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

A low chance of sprinkles has been added this afternoon and
evening for most places north of the Mountain Parkway due to an
area of WAA cloud cover and light precipitation dropping
southeast from Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Over our far northern
counties (e.g. Fleming), there is a slightly better chance of
actually having measureable rainfall (15-20%), but that would only
be about enough to settle the dust.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

The forecast is on track. Just made some minor Sky grid updates
and updated hourly temperatures based on the latest hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

Synoptically, an amplified pattern will continue across the CONUS
with a ridge out west and a trough across the east. Eastern
Kentucky will continue to reside within the outer envelope of a
cut-off low over far southern Ontario moving toward southern
Quebec and northern New England, with upper disturbances and
associated reinforcing cold fronts glancing eastern Kentucky from
the north and northwest both later today and again on Friday.

Both weak cold frontal passages are not likely to produce anything
more than a few sprinkles in the far north of our forecast area toward
the Ohio River. The main impacts will be the continued below
normal temperatures and periods of increased cloud cover.

Highs today are expected to be in the mid-70s to around 80
degrees, with upper 70s to mid-80s expected Friday with increased
warm advection ahead of the afternoon cold front. Lows tonight
will remain well below normal, with mid-40s to mid-50s expected,
coldest in the sheltered valleys and warmest on ridges.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

The overall jet stream weakens in intensity by Saturday but will
remain well south of the region through at least the first half of
next week, with weak cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the Ohio
River Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure in the low-levels will
build across the Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic region
through the weekend and move toward the coastline, resulting in
increasing easterly and then southeasterly winds from the Ohio
River Valley south to the Southeast and Gulf coastlines from
Sunday into early next week. This will allow for increasing
moisture advection from the Atlantic and Gulf into the region,
warranting an increase in PoPs especially from Monday through the
middle of next week. Instability looks limited this far north, but
not limited enough to warrant eliminating thunder chances at this
time from Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures appear poised to remain below normal, particularly as long
as the jet stream remains south of the area. Highs will generally
range from the mid-70s to lower 80s, with lows by the middle of
next week likely warming back closer to normal in the 50s to lower
60s under a warm advection regime by Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025

Valley fog will burn off by ~14z, remaining outside of terminals.
Expect VFR CIGs and light and variable winds through the daytime
hours, with valley fog again in the sheltered valleys most likely
not impacting the terminals. Winds will be light through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC