Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
869 FXUS62 KKEY 100158 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 958 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dew points in the mid 70s and nighttime lows in the lower 80s will support moderate to major heat risk concerns for the rest of the weekend. - Limited chance for rainfall this weekend and early next week will exacerbate existing drought conditions for the Florida Keys. - Southeasterly breezes forecast to break early next week and transition to light and variable by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 917 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 A tilted upper-level ridge axis stretches from Central America across the Greater Antilles. A surface ridge axis reaches west across the Bahamas to near South Florida. Southeast winds at the Reef range from 10 to 15 knots, and at times as high as 17 knots earlier this evening. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled a stout inversion near 700 mb and an extremely dry and well-mixed BL. In fact, the calculated DCAPE was near the record for the date. This explains the higher than guidance winds at the Reef as stronger winds mix down to the surface. Also, the 700 mb inversion likely explains the nearly clear reception of USCG Sector St. Pete on our VHF radio, with nearly perfect ducting of radio waves. The pattern will not change much overnight, aside from potentially weak nocturnal confluence in the southeasterly steering flow. Given the moisture depictions from CIRA`s ALPW products, isolated showers are possible (<20%) across our western Straits overnight. The inherited forecast calls for overnight lows in the lower 80s and nil rain chances for the island chain. No changes are needed, nor planned. && .MARINE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the rest of the weekend while high pressure over the western Atlantic dominates the weather pattern. Light to gentle breezes with periods of variable winds are expected by the start of the work week. Deep layers of dry air over South Florida will keep rain and thunder chances low through the weekend and early next week. A lingering frontal boundary next week may be able to slightly increase rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 917 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 VFR and gentle southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 0 Marathon 81 88 82 87 / 10 10 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest