372
FXUS62 KKEY 061820
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
120 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong high pressure over Bermuda will remain stationary
  through the rest of the week into the weekend, supporting an
  extended period of relatively unremarkable weather.

- Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane through the weekend,
  generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the
  afternoons.

- Rain, with possible thunder, chances anticipated this afternoon
  and tonight.

- Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn
  bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water
  supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight
  chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
VFR conditions prevail for EYW and MTH for the upcoming period.
East to southeasterly winds will remain around 15 to 20 knots.
Stray showers are possible, but confidence is not sufficient for
VCSH. Isolated to scattered cumulus will stream towards the
terminals from the Straits, but are not expected to cause MVFR
CIGs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
High pressure centered over Bermuda will remain the main driver
for the Florida Keys sensible weather for the next several days.
The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the
Gulf. This continue to promote moderate to fresh mainly easterly
breezes through the weekend. Therefore, the prolonged breezy
stretch for the Island Chain is expected to continue through at
Sunday before we notice a slight weakening in the high to allow
breezes to fall below breezy conditions. Low-level moisture will
remain ample with episodic showers remaining possible through the
period. There remains the risk for an isolated thunderstorm today
and tonight as ample instability remains across the area. Thunder
was removed for Saturday through the remainder of the forecast due
to confidence being low and statistical guidance showing low
probabilities. However, this will continue to be scrutinized over
the next forecast cycles. Temperatures will remain slightly above
normal for the next week with daytime highs in the lower 80s and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Also, early to mid next
week, a slight strengthening to aforementioned ridge will
potentially lend to another period of breezy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of
Florida tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is headlined
for Hawk Channel with until winds decrease headlined for
nearshore waters north of the Island Chain and the SE Gulf. From
synopsis, high pressure is centered over Bermuda with the western
periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf.
This will continue to promote a prolonged period of moderate to
fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters through the
weekend. Winds will be strongest across the Florida Straits and
weakest over the cooler Gulf side waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1987, the daily record rainfall of 5.26" was
recorded in Key West. This is also the wettest day ever recorded
in March for Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date
back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  73  82  73 /  20  10  10  20
Marathon  82  75  83  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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