699
FXUS62 KKEY 201517
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1117 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Depression Two is located across the northeastern Gulf
  on which the National Hurricane Center continues to issue
  advisories. This system poses no threat to the Florida Keys.

- Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull
  through the week. The exception is the SE Gulf where moderate to
  fresh breezes will slacken to gentle to moderate today.

- Heat indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees each afternoon for
  some Florida Keys island communities.

- Saharan Air Layer plumes will transit the area through at least
  mid week, limiting rain and thunder chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
A mostly uneventful morning for the Florida Keys. A few showers
have moved through the western Gulf waters but none with any
lightning or lasting very long. Besides that KBYX has remained
quiet. GOES-19 Visible Satelitte depicts mostly sunny skies for
the area making for a nice hot day. Temperatures are nearing 90
for most of the island chain with dewpoints creeping into the
upper 70s. Along the Reef winds are southerly at 10 to 15 knots.
As the only show in town is the Tropical Depression that is not
expected to impact our area at all, not too much is going to
change here for the forecast. Breezes will continue to slacken
in the afternoon and start to freshen overnight. With temperatures
nearing 90 and overnight lows in the 80s not much relief from the
heat is possible so make sure to stay hydrated!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The main story is Tropical Depression Two early this morning.
Currently, the system is located across the northeastern Gulf. The
system continues to pose no risk to the Florida Keys. CIMSS
products shows the Keys continue to remain in between two ridges,
though, the ridge over the Atlantic has slowly nudged farther to
the west over the last 12 to 18 hours. Tropical Depression Two
remains sandwiched in between these two ridges as the other ridge
is over the south-central United States. Also, a broad trough is
anchored across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Therefore,
Tropical Depression Two`s steering flow remains weak for the time
being and hence why it has been lingering across the NE Gulf of
America for the last few days. At the surface, the western edge of
the Atlantic ridge is influencing much of the Keys waters.
Therefore, marine observation platforms surrounding the Island
Chain are recording southeast to south breezes of 10 to 15 knots.

KBYX radar has been active all night with showers and
thunderstorms traversing north northeastward through the area.
Some of the activity became strong enough as it moved across the
Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore waters prompting Special
Marine Warnings and a Special Weather Statement. Harbor Bank Key
Light measured a gust to 32 knots or 37 mph around 230 am EDT.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s
and dew points are in the mid to upper 70s. The exception is the
area from the Saddlebunches to Big Pine Key where temperatures are
in the mid to upper 70s due to the rain cooled air.

.FORECAST...
Tropical Depression Two will continue to try and steal the show
for the next few days as it only slowly traverses across the
North Gulf Coast. However, this system poses no risk to the
Florida Keys. With that said, the western periphery of an Atlantic
ridge will continue to be the dominant feature for the Keys
sensible weather. Overall, slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through much of the week as moisture
undulations move through the region. Outside of the slight rain
chances, seasonably to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected to continue through the week. Daytime highs will be near
90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points
will continue to be tropical and steamy resulting in heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Make sure to continue to take breaks
and stay hydrated! Peaking and lulling gentle to moderate
southeast to south breezes are expected through mid week before
shifting more to the east to southeast for late week and into the
weekend.

One caveat is guidance is beginning to show signs of another
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell moving swiftly
westward to west-southwestward for mid to late week. Right now it
looks to cross the Bahamas sometime Wednesday night and then Cuba
around Thursday before continuing to move towards the Yucatan. All
this means is that there may be a uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity around this time. Right now, much of this is
expected to remain south of the Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida
Keys waters. From synopsis, At 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Two was
centered over the northeastern Gulf of America, and is expected to
move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression
will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next
several days. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to
the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Moderate breezes,
especially across the SE Gulf will slacken to gentle to moderate
this afternoon. Thereafter, breezes will continue to peak
overnight and lull during the day through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will shift to the southeast to south later
this afternoon. Not much chance of rain is expected through
tonight therefore no mention of VCSH at either terminal.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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