Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
104 FXUS62 KKEY 211539 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into next week keeping breezes gentle and rain chances out. -Surface ridging to our north will be reinforced by a broad continental high, resulting in strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal with dew points holding in the upper 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 A very dull, but pleasant start for the Florida Keys. Surface high pressure centered over the Florida Peninsula, coupled with deep layer ridging aloft is keeping all but a few clouds at bay. KBYX radar is empty of any precipitation echoes. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees at most locations across the Keys. Dew points are a tad bit on the muggy side with upper 60s to lower 70s being reported. Thankfully we still have a light to gentle breeze streaming out of the northeast to east which is helping somewhat. With the deep layer ridge in place, not expecting any surprises today. Conditions will remain dry, skies will be mostly sunny aside from the passing strato-cu and northeast to east winds will prevail. No changes made to the going forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure spanning the Atlantic Coast and Florida will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, tending stronger over the Florida Straits. This high will weaken as it pivots out into the Atlantic tonight. This will result in slackening breezes heading into the weekend. Breezes are expected to freshen modestly early next week as a continental high driving into the eastern United States reinforces the old ridge. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions will prevail under light to gentle northeast to east breezes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Deep layered ridging remains in control with an upper level ridge aligned along our longitude and lower level ridging centered over Florida. This is keeping very dry and stable conditions across our broader area. A messy surface ridge is aligned along the Atlantic Coast and Florida, resulting in mostly gentle northeast to easterly breezes along the Keys. This flow is maintaining near normal temperatures with dew points fairly high in the upper 60s. Weather radar has remained precipitation free over the past 24 hours. A mid latitude trough will sweep trough the northeast over the next couple of days and push the previously mentioned ridge southeastward and string it out into the Atlantic. As a result, wind will oscillate downwards. While breezes will initially shift further easterly, guidance suggests day time heating will bifurcate the weakening ridge, allowing breezes to back north to northeasterly this weekend. While temperatures will go nowhere with this shift, dew points may briefly drift down into the mid 60s. This along with stable and dry conditions aloft will keep rain chances nil. A broad robust surface high will press eastward into the eastern United States early next week. This should bolster easterly breezes in the Keys as the pressure gradient steepens. The more veered flow may push highs up a degree or two and hold overnight lows in the mid 70s. In addition, surface dew points may be driven up above 70. The faster flow, higher moisture, along with a neutral to veering wind profile should be sufficient for weak shower development. Have introduced dime PoPs for the long range forecast. With all that said, there has been considerable model to model and run to run inconsistency with how this high affects our area. Stay tuned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 72 80 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest