Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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549
FXUS62 KKEY 211937
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
237 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and
 into next week keeping breezes gentle and rain chances out.

-Surface ridging to our north will be reinforced by a broad
 continental high, resulting in strengthening breezes and slight
 rain chances early to mid week, next week.

-Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal with dew
 points in the upper 60s to lower 70s at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

High pressure spanning the Atlantic Coast and Florida
will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, tending stronger over
the Florida Straits. This high will weaken as it pivots out into
the Atlantic overnight. This will result in slackening breezes
heading into the weekend. Breezes are expected to freshen modestly
early next week as a continental high driving into the eastern
United States reinforces the old ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening and overnight.
Breezes will remain light to gentle from the northeast to east.
Low clouds may increase overnight but will not impact either
airfields.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Deep layered ridging remains in control with an upper level ridge
aligned along our longitude and lower level ridging centered over
Florida. This is keeping very dry and stable conditions across our
broader area. A messy surface ridge is aligned along the Atlantic
Coast and Florida, resulting in mostly gentle northeast to
easterly breezes along the Keys. This flow is maintaining near
normal temperatures with dew points fairly high in the upper 60s.
Weather radar has remained precipitation free over the past 24
hours.

A mid latitude trough will sweep trough the northeast over the
next couple of days and push the previously mentioned ridge
southeastward and string it out into the Atlantic. As a result,
wind will oscillate downwards. While breezes will initially shift
further easterly, guidance suggests day time heating will
bifurcate the weakening ridge, allowing breezes to back north to
northeasterly this weekend. While temperatures will go nowhere
with this shift, dew points may briefly drift down into the mid
60s. This along with stable and dry conditions aloft will keep
rain chances nil.

A broad robust surface high will press eastward into the eastern
United States early next week. This should bolster easterly
breezes in the Keys as the pressure gradient steepens. The more
veered flow may push highs up a degree or two and hold overnight
lows in the mid 70s. In addition, surface dew points may be driven
up above 70. The faster flow, higher moisture, along with a
neutral to veering wind profile should be sufficient for weak
shower development. Have introduced dime PoPs for the long range
forecast. With all that said, there has been considerable model to
model and run to run inconsistency with how this high affects our
area. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  80  71  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  72  80  70  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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