Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
873 FXUS62 KKEY 040321 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1021 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Nil rain chances are expected through the end of the week as dry air remains across the Keys. -North to northeast breezes overnight will shift to the northeast around daybreak on Thursday. Breezes further shift to the northeast to east during the day Thursday while remaining gentle to moderate. -The next opportunity for an unsettled pattern looks to occur sometime over the Sunday and Monday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A weak cool front has pushed through the Keys earlier this evening. However, this frontal passage was dry as KBYX radar has not detected any shower activity all evening across the Keys. The only noticeable items of interest are the increase in wind speeds across the Keys coastal waters, wind shift to the north to northeast, and slightly lower dew points. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s compared to the lower to mid 70s earlier on in the day. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing north to northeast of 10 to 15 knots west of the Seven Mile Bridge with 5 to 10 knots to the east and northeast of the Seven Mile Bridge. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a virtually dry atmospheric profile through the entire column. The wind profile shows slight backing with northerly winds around 1000 ft AGL and slightly northwest to north winds around 3000 ft AGL. This indicates ever so slight cold air advection occurring. Instability is virtually non-existent and the PWAT value measured was 1.43 inches which is a little below the 75th percentile for the date. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows the higher PWATs observed earlier during the balloon launch are now to the south of the Island Chain. There was a narrow plume of increased moisture that pushed through with the front. This is now to the south of the Island Chain across the Straits. Therefore, GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) now estimates PWAT values of 1.1 to 1.3 inches infiltrating the area. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast as dry air will reign overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a cold frontal system will meander across the Florida Keys overnight. Breezes will veer northeasterly and freshen overnight and Thursday. High pressure building over the Ohio Valley will cause winds to veer southeasterly and slacken over the weekend. Another frontal passage is possible towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Near nil rain chances will also persist as dry air remains entrenched across the Keys. Near surface winds will remain north to northeast between 4 to 8 knots through the overnight before shifting to the northeast to east around daybreak. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 70 81 73 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 80 71 80 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest