Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
609 FXUS62 KKEY 081838 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 238 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys. The SAL is on track to lift out of the Keys by the weekend. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The Saharan Air Layer reduced shower and cloud coverage considerably across the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon. KBYX radar scans highlighted stray, fast moving showers around the Keys. Gusts near showers that were able to form generated gusts capable of 20 knots. Breezes are gradually increasing from light to gentle to gentle to moderate across the Florida Keys waters as the Atlantic ridge strengthens slightly and lifts north towards central Florida. Thus, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for the Bayside and Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, winds will trend upwards over the next couple of days as the Atlantic ridge across Central Florida strengthens. Light to gentle breezes will become moderate to fresh during the evening hours. Winds will tend to peak in the evenings and lull slightly during the day. At least marine cautions will be required to most Keys waters over the next few days. Breezes are expected to ease back gradually through the weekend. Shower and thunder chances will be slight or less over the next few days, but trend sharply upwards late in the week as a weak low level trough pushes westward across our area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH. Dust from the Saharan Air Layer will reduce VIS slightly at both terminals, but it is unlikely MVFR VIS will develop unless a stray shower moves over the terminal. Near surface winds will steadily increase during the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The Atlantic ridge will remain across Central Florida and help drive moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. A few hours of breezy conditions will be likely in the very late afternoon and evening hours and tend to lull during the day. Forecast soundings indicate a healthy dose of lower level inhibition and drying based just above 900 mb. This should help to keep rain and thunder chances slight to nil over the next couple of days. Expect highs to remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Rather humid conditions will persist due to dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Through the latter portion of the week and into the weekend, a cut off upper low will wobble its way westward across the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. An associated lower level trough is still expected to work its way across our general area late in the work week and the start of the weekend. While guidance has been trending weaker with the inverted trough, they still depict subtle and messy lower level troughing and associated swathes of increasing moisture. Expect rain and thunder chances to pick up Thursday night and lingering into the weekend. Winds should trend downwards slightly through this period as the surface ridge lifts further northward and weakens slightly. The lower levels are expected to dry out considerably beginning in the second half of the weekend, allowing rain and thunder chances to come down. Weakening ridging will try to hold on across the Florida Peninsula and keep breezes generally gentle to moderate east to southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 83 91 / 10 0 20 30 Marathon 84 90 83 90 / 0 0 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest