Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
312 FXUS62 KKEY 121753 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1253 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions, along with light breezes and seasonably warm temperatures, will persist over the next couple of days. - Winds will increase Saturday, peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning. - A frontal boundary will push through the Keys Sunday night and Monday, supporting increased measurable rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for both MTH and EYW for the 18Z TAF period. Near surface winds will slowly build from light and variable to northwesterlies to northerlies by sunrise. Reduced visibility in patchy, thin layers of mist will be a concern in the late overnight hours, but not at sufficient magnitude to decrease into MVFR criteria. EYW is more likely to observe reduced VIS than MTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Feb 12 4006 Over the next several days, a shortwave trough will progress eastward towards the southern Plains. Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) mean and member fields are in good agreement that this trough will support cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. This low will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Gulf Coast. As the low interacts with a continental area of high pressure diving southeastward from the Great Lakes to off the Carolina coastline, the pressure gradient will tighten the vicinity of the Florida Keys, with possible breezy conditions Saturday night through Sunday night. NWP runs have come into much better agreement over the past twenty-four hours regarding the fate of the low pressure system, supporting a more diffuse system as it approaches the East Coast. With that being said, the Florida Keys will likely be in a region of decent upper-level divergence Sunday night through Monday morning. Coupled with substantial boundary layer moistening, little inhibition, and at least moderate CAPE for this time of year, a band of showers will likely survive the trek ahead of a frontal boundary attached to the low. We considered adding possible thunder for this time frame, but we will hold off for now, given the increasing confidence in this somewhat less amplified solution. Temperatures behind the front will change little owed to the lack of a strong continental high building in the wake of the front. The Florida Keys look to return to an extended period of dry and seasonably warm conditions for the early to latter part of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Feb 12 4006 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. A nebulous pressure pattern across the Florida Keys coastal waters will support light and at times variables winds through Friday night. Patchy marine fog will be possible Thursday night or Friday night over the favored coolest ocean temperatures in the southeastern Gulf. High pressure diving off the Mid- Atlantic coastline will interact with a developing area of low pressure near the ARK- LA- TEX region by Saturday and Saturday night, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes. The low pressure system will drive a frontal boundary through the Keys marine zones Sunday night into Monday, with gentle winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake for early next week. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1973, the daily record low temperature of 51F was recorded. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 62 76 62 / 0 10 10 0 Marathon 76 63 75 63 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest