Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
509 FXUS62 KKEY 141856 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While a shower cannot be ruled out near either terminal, low coverage and certainty in location and timing will leave mention out of the TAFs for now. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast a near 10 knots with occasional gusts to near 15 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Not too much has changed across the Florida Keys this morning. Shallow strips of fair weather cumulus are streaming across our area from the southeast with a few clusters of showers north of the Cay Sal bank and west of the Dry Tortugas (similar to yesterday). KBYX radar reflectivity notes shower activity near the island chain is on the decline while the previously mentioned locations continue to bubble with shallow convection. Meanwhile, the eastern Straits of Florida have really dried out as CIMSS MIMIC PW depicts a tongue of lower values advecting in from Cuba. Thunderstorm activity has been notably lower than previous days so far as this morning`s KKEY sounding shows more dry subsidence intruding into the mid to low levels. This should help suppress deep convective development throughout the day along with weak anticyclonic surface flow. Overall sparse cloud cover has temperatures observations up into the mid to upper 80s before the afternoon once again making for a mildly oppressive near normal summer day taking dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s into account. East to southeast breezes along the reef are still moderate in magnitude but have slackened a touch from before sunrise. The forecast looks to be on track with no changes needed at this time. && .FORECAST... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A fairly stable weather pattern is established across our area thanks to the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward past Florida. Meanwhile, mid and upper level ridging is in place across our broader area. Surface winds have freshened modestly late this evening and are moderate out of the southeast. This steady flow is maintaining seasonable surface temperatures and dew points. Precipitable water is near normal at around 1.5 inches and inhibition is very limited. However, lower level dry layers and overall anticyclonic flow is keeping convective activity isolated. No significant changes to our synoptic pattern is expected. Surface through mid level ridging will remain in control. The upper level ridge is expected to weaken as weak troughing pinches off in the western Gulf. However, for our area, this means the flow aloft will become nebulous. As a result, the prolonged stretch of gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will continue through the weekend and well into next week. Winds will tend to peak in the evening and overnight and lull during the day. CAPE will remain ample, precipitable water near normal, and inhibition limited to non existent. However, the continued existence of lower to mid level dry layers and the dominant anticyclonic flow will help to mitigate convective coverage. Have nudged down pops to slight chance through the forecast. Expect continued seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the lower 80s and dew points lingering in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will remain in place for the next several days. This will support moderate to occasionally fresh breezes. The high will drift a bit southeastward over the weekend into early next week, leading to slightly weaker breezes. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1957, the daily record high temperature of 94F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 88 82 88 / 20 10 20 20 Marathon 82 89 82 89 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest