591
FXUS62 KKEY 250155
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
955 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate
  coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing,
  especially around high tide.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through early next
  week. Near-gale wind gusts will be possible at times Sunday
  evening through Monday evening, especially SE Gulf.

- Little to no relief from significant coastal and marine impacts
  are expected into at least the middle of next week. Residents
  and visitors should take the necessary actions to protect flood-
  prone property.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
It`s been a pleasant evening across the Florida Keys with current
temperature readings in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. We`re situated on the dry side of mid to upper-level
troughing which is becoming somewhat cutoff over the Bahamas. Weak
lobes of low-level vorticity are rotating around the trough axis and
generating a few shallow showers across our waters this evening
amidst ~15-20kts of low-level flow, but the 00Z KKEY RAOB measured
deep layers of very dry air throughout the tropospheric column with
only a shallow saturated layer around 825mb. Satellite observations
show a region of higher moisture propagating southwest along the
east coast of Florida where the radar is much more active tonight.
Model guidance suggests this moisture plume will arrive across our
forecast area tomorrow while we continue to be grazed by spokes of
vorticity on the western side of the trough axis. While the forecast
calls for mostly rain free conditions tonight outside of a brief
shower here and there, Chance PoPs still seem reasonable for
tomorrow given the return of a more favorable environment for
precip. Any heavy rain that occurs along the island chain during
high tide could result in compounding flood issues given the ongoing
King Tide coastal flooding, but fortunately quick cell motions (~20-
25 kts) should help to limit that concern.

Meanwhile, the pressure gradient is strengthening as flow over the
Keys is becoming increasingly pinched in between a sprawling
anticyclone encompassing the Eastern CONUS and the region of
stagnant troughing over the Caribbean. Winds have recently began
increasing again as we transition from a daytime lull back into an
overnight peak, and therefore the Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for all Florida Keys marine zones.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
zones. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern United
States and a weak low northeast of the Bahamas will sustain fresh
to strong breezes through the weekend and early next week. Peak
breezes are expected on Sunday night through Tuesday in which near
gale wind gusts will be possible over the Outer Gulf waters.
Freshening breezes and pulses of low level moisture may support
elevated shower chances on Sunday night and Monday. Breezes are on
track to slacken to moderate to fresh by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
VFR conditions are set to prevail as dry air over the Keys will
limit precip chances at both TAF sites tonight, but the enhanced
pressure gradient will result in breezy north to northeasterly
winds with occasional gusts of 20-22 kts. A pocket of higher
moisture content will rotate across the area tomorrow which may be
enough to generate some scattered vicinity showers around 19Z.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  83  75  84 /  10  30  40  40
Marathon  74  83  75  84 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DM
Aviation/Nowcasts....DM
Data Acquisition.....11

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