Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
876 FXUS62 KKEY 170304 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures across the Keys will stay warmer than normal this week. Dew points are expected to linger in the upper 70s. - A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through the first part of the week. Shower chances are likely to stay significantly below normal until the latter half of the week. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes at the beginning of the week will slacken to light to gentle over the course of the week, and even become light and variable at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 A mostly uneventful night is unfolding for the Florida Keys. Saharan dry air continues to limit a majority of the shower activity and seen on Nighttime Microphysics even clouds are struggling to survive. Tonight`s 00z KKEY sounding measured another dry profile with only 1.43 inches of PWAT which according to SPC Climatology is less than the 10 percentile for the day. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s making for another humid, warm night. Along the Reef, winds are east to southeasterly at near 10 knots. For the overnight, not much is expected to change as things remain dry therefore near nil rain chances are in the forecast and breezes will slightly slacken to light to gentle as ridging remains in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, generally gentle east to southeast breezes will become light and variable at times across the local waters over the next few days as ridging remains the dominant weather feature across the area. Northward movement of the subtropical ridge away from the Keys will allow a col region to set up between Florida and Cuba. Shower coverage will be kept far below normal because of a Saharan Air Layer moving over the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit shower activity therefore no mention of VCSH necessary at either terminal. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots through tonight. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....DM/DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest