Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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034
FXUS62 KKEY 141842
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry
 air dominates the Florida Keys.

-Humidity levels will be below normal through most of the week.

-A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and
 Middle Keys.

-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida
 Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even
 outside the times of high tide.

-Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not
 be a threat to the Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of
today and into tonight. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out,
low chances of organized development will keep mention out of
either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the
northeast to east at near 10 knots with frequent gusts to 15 to 20
knots, becoming northeast late overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Things are drying out along the Florida Keys after a somewhat wet
start to the day. Outflow from yesterday`s convection over Cuba
pushed north through the Straits of Florida developing showers
that ultimately crossed through the Lower and Middle Keys before
sunrise. What now remains is a cluster of convection bubbling in
the eastern Straits of Florida as well as a blob of showers
drifting west near the Dry Tortugas. GOES-19 visible imagery
notes clear skies over the western half of the Keys with cloud
debris obscuring the remainder of the island chain. Despite some
of the extra cloud cover, temperatures are still hovering near or
just above 80 with dewpoints still stuck in the lower to mid 70s.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes persist along the
Reef making for a choppy day in the nearshore waters of the Keys.

The Keys are currently situated along a steep moisture gradient
brought along by the front that swept through southeast CONUS this
past weekend. CIMSS MIMIC PW constantly puts values greater than
2 inches in the Florida Straits with values approaching 1.5 inches
found in deep Gulf waters north of the island chain. This
morning`s 12z KKEY sounding leaned towards the wetter side of
things with a PW above 2.13 inches likely helping explain the
early morning rainfall. Guidance expects mid level moisture to
gradually sink south as the nor`easter on north end of the
Eastern Seaboard marches out into the North Atlantic. Thus have
opted to keep slight rain chances in the short term. Breezes are
also expected to slacken starting tonight into tomorrow as high
pressure takes over the Eastern Seaboard. A shame we could not
also see a proper drop in dewpoints, but it is still just a little
too early for a real frontal passage just yet. Stay tuned...

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 421 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The forecast challenge for the upcoming week will be placing the
precipitable water gradient between Florida and Cuba. The upper
level pattern is shifting to allow sinking air over the
southeastern CONUS, but moisture transport north of Cuba will
cancel out some of the subsidence. The current forecast shows more
subsidence, and thus drier conditions, through midweek. The
pattern shifts by the end of the week, and the subsident pattern
shifts eastward into the Atlantic. Near normal (around 20%) to
above normal rain chances return over the weekend as the wind
pattern shifts from northeasterlies to east-southeasterlies in the
lower atmosphere.

Breezes will be the other topic of interest. When the upper level
trough moves offshore, a mid latitude low is expected to develop
off the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, a high pressure system
along the Canadian border will sink southeast over the Great
Lakes. Slackening breezes are expected midweek before the high
sinks south towards the Carolina coastline. Once the high set up
over the southeastern US, fresh breezes are possible across the
Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are possible
depending on the southward extent of the high and the location of
the pressure gradient. The windy season is fast approaching, so
check back later for an update on whether or not boating will be
seasickness inducing across the Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all coastal waters of the
Florida Key except the Florida Bay. A low pressure system
developing off the Eastern Seaboard and a high pressure system
over the eastern United States will allow moderate to fresh
breezes tonight. Slackening winds are expected on Wednesday as the
aforementioned low moves east. By the end of the week, high
pressure will set up along the Carolina coast and support
freshening breezes. Expect peak breezes during the late evening to
mornings, and lulls in the afternoons. Shower coverage will
remain isolated to scattered.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  76  86  76  86 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  76  84  75  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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