Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
583 FXUS62 KKEY 121525 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1125 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity levels will be below normal. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for these island communities, as water levels have decreased below the advisory criteria. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected today, even outside the times of high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled rising low- and mid-level geopotential heights, along with tremendous dry air above 850 mb. KBYX radar is only detecting a few isolated showers across the Florida Keys marine zones, with CIMSS satelitte-derived precipitable water product highlighting dry air filtering southward into the Keys, as a continental high builds across the East Coast in the wake of an intensifying low pressure off Tidewater Virginia. Temperatures are only near 80F across the Island Chain at this late morning hour, only likely nudging upward into the lower to mid 80s later this afternoon. No changes to the forecast required at this time-- enjoy the first taste of Florida Fall. && .MARINE... Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 From synopsis, light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes expected this afternoon and tonight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the North Carolina Coast and high pressure building in across the northern Gulf Coast. Expect north to northeasterly swells across the eastern marine zones this afternoon due to the low off the North Carolina coast. High pressure will build across the eastern United States to start the week, leading to freshening mainly northeasterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals today, with only a slight chance of a passing brief shower. Near-surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast at 6 to 8 knots through 12z Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 77 86 78 / 20 10 10 20 Marathon 85 75 86 77 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest