Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
884 FXUS62 KKEY 130240 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1040 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity levels will be below normal. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for these island communities, as water levels have decreased below the advisory criteria. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even outside the times of high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A quiet night for the Florida Keys. A stationary boundary at the surface is located just outside of area of responsibility to the southeast. Meanwhile, aloft there is excellent convergence occurring from central to eastern Cuba. This has been supporting a healthy cluster of convection across Cuba and stretching northward across the Bahamas. Temperatures this hour are hovering near or just below 80 degrees. Dew points continue to slowly click down with values in the lower to mid 70s as drier air continues to slowly filter in. Expecting another minor nocturnal surge to come off the mainland late overnight and have upped winds to reflect that. We should see winds holdover a couple hours after sunrise then fall briefly into the afternoon before freshening in the evening. Otherwise, dry air in place will continue to limit rain chances to where the strongest surface convergence can occur. Therefore, have left PoPs where they are at for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes expected overnight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic and high pressure building in across the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure will build across the eastern United States to start the week, leading to freshening mainly northeasterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with dry conditions. Northerly winds will increase towards sunrise and clock around more to the northeast on Monday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest