Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
162 FXUS62 KKEY 231755 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts through this evening. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by the early to middle part of the week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Monday. Surface winds will remain mostly southeast to south, though there is the potential for a period of light and variable winds this afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. In addition, an island cloud line may continue to wax and wane through this evening, supporting the risk for vicinity showers and thunderstorms. Mention of VCSH is not explicitly in the TAF for now, with low confidence in cloud line proximity to the terminals, although this will be monitored over the next several hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 436 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly dry air will continue to be the main story for the next couple of days across the Keys. However, just enough moisture is available to support slight chances of showers and thunderstorms through at least Monday night. Weak ridging will also continue to dominate with mainly southeast breezes occasionally becoming variable this afternoon and early evening. The ridge over the Atlantic builds a little further westward tonight into Monday leading to an increasing influence across the area resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes. Since the flow is expected to mainly be light today, there is the potential for a weak cloud line this afternoon. The main inhibiting factor will be the dry air that is in place. Otherwise, the warmer than normal weather will continue be the main story with daytime highs near 90 degrees. Overnight lows won`t provide much relief in the lower to mid 80s while dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture is expected to increase across the region beginning Tuesday with this continuing throughout the week. A more typical pattern for this time of the year is expected to ensue with more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms. The ridge across the North Atlantic will keep its western periphery across the Keys leading to moisture undulations as well as peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak overnight into the morning before lulling during the afternoons. Daytime highs near 90 degrees continue through the week, though, overnight lows will dip some due to the increased rain chances into the lower 80s. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 3 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a low or near 0 percent chance of formation over 48 hours with a medium or 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Conditions will be somewhat favorable for island cloud line formation, mainly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys. Any cloud line may produce a few waterspouts. Mariners are reminded that a waterspout would most likely appear beneath a dark, flat bottom of a building cumulus line, just at the hint of rain. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through tonight, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, east to southeast breezes will become more established from tonight through Thursday, becoming gentle && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest