Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
766 FXUS62 KKEY 030250 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 950 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light to gentle breezes will continue to turn west to northwest overnight, becoming north around sunrise. -Some areas of fog may develop over local waters by early Wenesday morning, and some of this fog may cross the island chain. -The next opportunity for an unsettled pattern looks to occur sometime over the Sunday and Monday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 948 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Our KBYX radar has been busy all evening as it has been following showers across the area. During the late afternoon, a line of showers tracked across our western marine zones, and clipped portions of the Lower and Middle Keys as it tracked eastward. A few automated observation sites near Big Pine Key and Cudjoe Key measured a few hundredths of an inch as showers passed. The ASOS at Marathon International Airport reported a trace of rainfall just before 7 PM, but Key West International Airport did not pick up any rainfall as a break in the shower activity developed just before the line moved through. At the time we are typing this, a couple of light showers just north of the Lower Keys are approaching, but the reflectivity on radar suggests that these are very light showers. The 00Z KKEY sounding showed a reasonable amount of moisture up to approximately 10k feet above ground level, with a sliver of drier air between 3k and 7k feet, but the vertical wind profile was nearly unidirectional, so it`s a little surprising to see showers still on radar. CAM guidance suggests that these should be the last of the showers for tonight, so island communities will lose the current slight chance of rain during the overnight hours. Current temps are mostly in the mid 70s with dew points just a couple of degrees behind that, so we are still just a little bit sticky outside. No updates or changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 948 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 There are not watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the FLorida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a developing low pressure system extends from the Carolinas to the Florida Panhandle. A corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys late overnight into Wednesday morning. In the wake, breezes will freshen out of the north to northeast Wednesday. Another surface high builds back in following the front with gentle broadly southern breezes returning in time for the weekend. There is the potential for another frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Marine fog developing during the late overnight hours will be advected over portions of the island chain. IFR and LIFR VIS and CIGs will be possible at either terminal with the better chances at MTH. Hourly guidance has continued to suggest the window of opportunity at MTH will be between approximately 08Z and 15Z with chances of IFR and LIFR conditions between 20 and 30 percent. Much less chances are currently in the forecast for EYW, but this will need to be reevaluated once fog actually develops. 03Z TAF amendments will be issued to account for the anticipated reduction in flight categories at MTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 70 78 70 79 / 10 10 0 0 Marathon 70 78 71 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest