536
FXUS62 KKEY 250447
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1247 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 841 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The outer rain bands of Tropical Storm Helene pushed through the
Florida Keys earlier this evening, bringing messy weather as we
would expect from a tropical system. By 11 PM local time,
rainfall amounts anywhere from a third of an inch to just over an
inch were reported from stations in the Lower Keys. Maximum wind
gust observations of near 30 knots were also reported. Since this
was only the leading edge, the Upper Keys have seen less activity
this evening, but nobody should let their guard down yet.

At this time, radar reflectivity shows the next round of showers
encroaching on the majority of the island chain with the leading
edge of these showers just about to cross Marathon. Interestingly
enough, satellite hasn`t shown many lightning flashes with these
clusters, so the heavy sleepers likely wont be woken up. With the
earlier showers having produced a few tenths of an inch of
rainfall at a time, we can assume we`ll see similar amounts from
the next few rounds of showers and any areas that are slow to
drain or are prone to ponding in heavy rainfall will see some
degree of flooding during the overnight hours.

Even though the center of Helene is well off to our southwest,
roughly in between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of
Cuba, the fact that we have already experienced some of the outer
banding is a testament to the sheer size of this system. During
the overnight hours, we will continue to see rounds of showers
with breaks in between, but it`s important to note that the worst
conditions aren`t expected until sometime late Wednesday night and
into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 841 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a sizable portion
of Keys waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
waters around the Upper Keys. Helene is still forecast to
strengthen as it moves across the Yucatan Channel and into the
Gulf, and will pass closest to Keys waters overnight Wednesday
night and into Thursday morning. Expect the strongest winds and
highest seas during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 841 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Squalls and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage through
the next 24 hours as Tropical Storm Helene travels north across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Periodic squalls will pass over the island
terminals before onset of tropical storm force winds, most likely
tonight, which will require occasional TEMPOs. Near surface
southeasterly winds will steadily increase throughout the TAF period
with gusts near 45 to 50 knots near fast-moving squalls amidst MVFR
to IFR conditions.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ076>078.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ077-078.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ032>035-043-044-053>055-073>075.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ031-042-052-
     072.

&&

$$

Coordinator/Hazards..CJ
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Social Media.........DR
Data Acquisition.....DR

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