Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210841
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
441 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly cloudy skies and a steady east to southeast wind of
round 10 mph, temperatures range from the mid to upper 70s to
lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are
detecting isolated showers and thunderstorms over our service
area. On our marine district, winds are east to southeast ranging
from 9 knots at Pulaski Shoal Light to 14 knots at Smith Shoal
Light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
An elongated, east-west oriented low level trough over the
Bahamas will slowly become better organized, before moving
westward and across our region Friday and into the extreme
Southeast Gulf of Mexico late Friday night. With a broad cyclonic
flow, plenty of moisture, little if any convective inhibition and
a light northeast to east trajectory, mesoscale forcing in the
form of wet cloud line genesis along with cells migrating off the
South Florida Mainland and into our area will be the primary
precipitation sources. Hence, outside of late this evening and
overnight, high chance pops will be retained for most of this
forecast cycle. Due to variably cloudy skies and at least a few
episodes of rainfall, high temperatures will average near 90 with
overnight lows ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
The persistent, north-south oriented trough (below 700 mb)
extending from the western portion of the island of Cuba,
northward into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico will drift
slowly westward this weekend and early next week. In wake of the
undulation, a western Atlantic high pressure cell will slide
across the archipelago of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida.
But until then, a broad cyclonic flow combined with plenty of
moisture will prompt middle of the road chance pops to start the
weekend, before some drier air filters in resulting in low chance
climo pops thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from showers, thunderstorms, outflow boundaries and possible
waterspouts, gentle to moderate winds with the higher winds mainly
south of the island chain for at least the next couple of days.
Thereafter, light to gentle southeast to south winds will
predominate for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moist easterly flow will gradually weaken across the EYW and MTH
terminals today. Although convective coverage has decreased
considerably near the terminals since midnight, redevelopment will
remain possible at any time. This afternoon, the decreasing E flow
may become favorable for cloud line development along the island
chain. Due to high uncertainty in the specific timing and coverage
of any convection, have included only VCSH in the terminal forecasts
at this point.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1923, the daily record low temperature of 71 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  81  90  81 / 50 50 50 50
Marathon  92  81  93  82 / 50 40 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson

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