Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 291958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
258 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023


Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
KBYX radar is detecting some light showers over the far distant
Straits of Florida, mainly to the south of Woods Wall East Crack.
This shower activity has been persistent throughout much of the
day as well just not as robust as earlier. GOES 16 Visible
satellite imagery continues to show a high cirrus deck continuing
to stream from west to east across the Florida Keys. Temperatures
across the Keys are in the lower 70s with some locations hovering
near 70 degrees with dew points in the lower 60s.

Strong surface high pressure remains in place across the
Southeastern United States which continues to move off to the east
resulting in the north to northeast breezes earlier becoming more
northeasterly. As a result, marine platforms around the Keys are
observing northeast breezes of near 15 knots while Island Chain
communities are observing near 15 mph.

The aforementioned surface high pressure will continue to be the
main weather driver for the next few days. The high will continue
to slide eastward off the Southeastern United States coastline
Thursday while continuing moving eastward into the western North
Atlantic heading into the weekend. This will keep the healthy
pressure gradient going for tonight through Thursday night as
another surge of wind is expected. Therefore, another period of
breezy conditions is expected for the Lower Keys for this time
frame. One more cool night is also expected with upper 60s for
the Middle to Upper Keys with near 70 degrees for the Lower Keys.
Also, some moisture is expected to move through the Lower Keys
Thursday which may result in a passing shower. All of these
factors resulted in a split of the zones this forecast package.

As the high slides further out into the western North Atlantic for
Friday through the weekend, expect dew points to creep back up
into the lower to mid 70s along with increasing moisture as
moisture undulations ride the southwestern periphery of the ridge.
Therefore, kept the forecast for slight chances of rain. Also,
with the east to southeast flow, there is the potential for record
highs to be either tied or broken, especially Marathon, on
December 2nd and 3rd. Previous record highs were 86 degrees on
both days with these previously set in 2018. Current forecast is
for a high of 85 degrees on the 2nd with 86 degrees on the 3rd.
Key West may also come close to tying records but right now it
looks like we will fall just short. Looks to be shaping up to be
a toasty and summery feel to start the last month of 2023.

Then, a weak front is anticipated to push through the Keys early
next week which is expected to bring a slight decrease to
temperatures and dew points along with a slight uptick in winds.

Lastly, model guidance has been honing in on a much stronger front
moving through the Keys toward mid-week which may bring another
period of possibly cooler and windy conditions to the Keys. Model
guidance continues to remain in disagreement on timing and
strength of this front, therefore, keep checking back for updates
as we continue to fine tune...


Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for Increasing Winds (SCEC)
are headlined for all the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight with
the exception of the Florida Bay where winds should remain just
below SCEC. There is the potential for another Small Craft
Advisory for late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
though, current thinking is this remains just below. From
synopsis, high pressure initially over the Southeastern United
States will shift east into the western North Atlantic over the
next few days. Moderate to fresh northeast breezes will clock to
the northeast to east overnight becoming east for Thursday night
through Friday evening. Breezes further veer to the east to
southeast for Friday night through Saturday night and then
southeast to south for Sunday while diminishing as the high moves
into the Atlantic. Breezes become variable for Sunday night and
Monday before freshening Monday night as a frontal system


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
VFR and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period. High dense cirrus clouds continue to stream overhead with
little coverage expected near FL030. Gusty northeast winds will
diminish slightly into this evening before freshening overnight
and into tomorrow morning.


Key West  70  79  74  82 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  69  79  73  84 /  10  10  10  10




Data Acquisition.....AJP

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