Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 251856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
256 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...In the mid and upper levels(700-200 MB),latest
available model streamline analysis overlaid with satellite data
as of 200 pm, depicts a narrow yet sharp full latitudinal trough
axis across the immediate Westernmost CONUS extending from
Washington State to off of the Central CA coast. Just downstream
of that, ridging is present from the Intermountain West to the
Plains to the East Coast. The center of the strongest ridging is
located over Southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the NE
Gulf of Mexico. South of that, a well defined east to west upper
ridge axis is positioned from the SE Bahamas to Western Cuba
(Pinar Del Rio). At the surface and in the lower to middle
levels, latest available marine and land surface observations and
analysis detail a 1020 mb ridge developing across Central Florida

.CURRENTLY...As of 200 pm, skies mostly sunny across the islands
and surrounding waters. Temperatures have reached the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. C-man stations are
recording northeast to east winds at 15 to 20 knots, with gusts
between 20 and 25 knots. Island sensors are near 15 mph.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight thru Tuesday, forecast models continue to
maintain the deep ridging across Florida and the Florida Keys with
a dearth of drier air in the middle levels mixing down. The
surface ridging, though across Northern Florida now, will slowly
work its way southwards, intensifying a bit across Central
Florida. This will allow for periodic lulls and surges, with the
lulls harder to time each early morning and the surges usually
happening after sunset and again later in the morning in
association with diurnal mixing. Any showers brought on by
convergence would only remain in the Florida Straits through these
periods. High temperatures will reach near 90 with lows in the
upper 70s to near 80.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night thru Saturday, Although middle level,
500 mb heights remain near 590 decameters, slight moistening in
the boundary layer will allow for just a slight chance for showers
over the islands. Given somewhat of a gradient remaining with
surface ridging north of the Keys, any of these short lived
showers would occur late night or early morning, with only 10 to
20 percent chances for showers at best.


.MARINE...SCA is in effect for at least one more period for all
waters thru this evening. Most areas tomorrow will still be at
least SCEC except an advisory will likely remain in place across
the Florida Straits tomorrow and tomorrow night, possibly even
Memorial Day. Winds should be just under SCEC, but still around 15
knots for Memorial Day across Hawk Channel and the shallower
Nearshore Gulf and Florida Bay waters.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals. ENE
winds will remain gusty and increase from near 20 knots to near
25 knots in the evening.


Key West 78 87 79 87 / - 0 0 0
Marathon 80 91 80 92 / - 0 0 0


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-



Data Collection......BT

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