557
FXUS62 KKEY 101000
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
500 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys today.
 This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy
 conditions developing for the first part of the work week.

-Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the
 end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the
 northern Gulf.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
It is the calm before the roar this morning across the Florida
Keys. After a modest cloudline percolated along the island chain
yesterday afternoon and evening, KBYX has been clear of
precipitation near land overnight with it now only detecting a few
broken lines of shallow precipitation drifting through the
Straits of Florida. Similar to 24 hours ago, light to gentle
breezes persist along offshore observation platforms on the Reef
with temperatures on the island chain in the upper 70s and humid
dew points in the mid 70s. GOES-19 nighttime microphysics imagery
shows change on the horizon with the leading edge of a cold front
represented by a band of cumulus marching through the Gulf and
over central Florida.

The big weather story for the Keys today is the passage of the
previously mentioned cold front. Our light to gentle breezes this
morning will rapidly accelerate out of the northwest as this
potent front crosses into and through our waters. Strong breezes
are expected to reach the island chain in the late morning to
early afternoon hours before sweeping into the Straits of Florida
by tonight. As winds increase with the leading edge of the front,
a brief window of chance PoPs will exist this morning with speed
convergence promoting low level lift in what will still be a
somewhat moist environment ahead of the front. Last night`s KKEY
sounding does note dry air already above 650 mb meaning that
thunderstorm chances will still lean near nil.

Strong to near gale force breezes will howl through our waters
tonight. These northerly winds will bring in a dry and cooler air
mass to our CWA with dew points plunging into the 40s and low
temperatures extending below 60 degrees. This will also zero out
rain chances as we get this early taste of dry season conditions.
Winds will start to slacken on Tuesday gradually pulling back to
moderate northeast breezes as a surface high takes control of our
sensible weather by the second half of the week. By then,
temperatures will also have returned to more normal values and
seasonal conditions will continue on through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, a potent cold front will push
through the Florida Keys marine zones today, bringing fresh to
strong northerly winds by the afternoon. While the next high
builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast
and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will
remain possible through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
VFR conditions will largely prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF
period, with the exception of several hours centered around midday.
During these hours, a frontal passage will bring the potential for
MVFR CIGs, along with a chance of showers and associated brief
reduced visibility. This front will also see winds transition from
light and generally westerly, becoming northwest to northerly and
near 20 knots, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. These stronger winds
will persist for the remainder of the TAF period, potentially
creating notable crosswind issues at the terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1913, the daily record low temperature of 57F was
recorded at Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  57  70  63 /  30   0   0   0
Marathon  81  55  68  63 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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