Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
401 FXUS62 KKEY 230329 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1029 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week keeping breezes light to gentle with nil rain chances. -A broad continental high will advance into the eastern United States early next week resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -The next significant cold front is not expected until late next week at the earliest. Consequently temperatures will range broadly near normal with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 The nice stretch of weather continues across the Florida Keys this evening. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values hovering between 0.75" and 0.95" throughout the Keys. KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity and GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mostly low level cumulus clouds throughout the area. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some radiational cooling is also ongoing with the Big Pine Key RAWS dropping down to 69 degrees a little before 8 pm. Elongated high pressure remains over the Gulf with this ridge stretching eastward into the western North Atlantic. This is promoting north to northeast breezes near 5 knots north of the Chain and northeast to east breezes of 5 to 10 knots at surrounding marine platforms south of the Chain. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile once again this evening. The shallow moist layer present around 850 mb last evening has dried out more tonight. Once again though, this layer is most likely deeper over the Straits where a some cumulus remain. The PWAT value measured was 0.96" which is below the 25th percentile but above the 10th percentile for the date. Also, the wind profile in the lowest few thousand feet AGL is unidirectional out of the east between 5 to 10 knots. Since we have dry air in place, no trigger nearby, and no instability, expect a quiet night to continue with the best chance for a shower, if any, remaining over the Straits. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light, predominantly northeasterly breezes will linger through the remainder of the weekend. A new continental high will push in to the eastern United States early next week, resulting in freshening northeast to easterly breezes. This high will progress eastward into the Atlantic, and after mid week, breezes should collapse as the pressure field becomes nebulous. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to become north to northeast overnight and remain north to northeast through Sunday evening with speeds remaining between 2 to 9 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 82 71 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest