Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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446
FXUS62 KKEY 070845
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
445 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A brief lull in shower activity near the start of the overnight
shift is already behind us as our KBYX radar has been busy
detecting the increase in showers across our forecast area over
the past few hours. A few automated observations along the island
chain have reported anywhere from a trace of rainfall to just over
a tenth of an inch, but radar estimates suggest some moderate
showers over the local waters have produced approximately half of
an inch to near one inch of rainfall. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows
values near 2 inches across the area, so it seems reasonable to
see rainfall amounts like this. Temperatures are sitting mostly in
the lower 80s, but a few showers that have just crossed the
Marathon area have brought temperatures there down into the upper
70s. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s, so we would like to
take this opportunity to refer to the air as "gross".

If you`re looking for some relief, you will have to hang in there
a little longer. An area of low pressure is idling over the
Bahamas, but it`s important to note that this is not an area of
tropical interest. Over the next few days, it will slowly pull
westward across our area. This will result in an uptick in both
moisture and shower activity. Forecast soundings suggest we may be
a little too saturated for significant thunderstorm coverage, so
we will continue to advertise only a slight chance of thunder. The
slow progression of this low means that persistent, steady
rainfall will be possible. While this isn`t necessarily an issue
over the water, any island communities experiencing relentless
rainfall will be more likely to see flooding as this is occurring
at the same time as King Tides. Flooding risk will have to be
monitored in near real time as the intensity of each shower will
have to be considered. This forecast package will show PoPs
fluctuating between 50 and 60 percent through Friday, but actual
precipitation will likely resemble an on-and-off pattern as
dynamics change aloft.

Global model guidance continues to show a very amplified ridge
over the western half of the U.S. with an accompanying trough
developing over the rest of the country. As this trough deepens
into the southeast, a cold front will start to descend through
southern states and into Florida. A tighter gradient will lead to
increased breezes, which are not in our current forecast, but they
are showing up in marine forecasts from our neighboring Florida
forecast offices. It is still too early to narrow down where the
front ends up, but some ensemble members are resolving dew points
in the lower 70s as far south as Key West, indicating that the
front may reach us. Even though confidence is low, this means that
relief may be on the way!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters, but higher high tides will result in
reduced clearance under fixed bridges near the island chain. From
synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a
weak area of low pressure still situated near the Bahamas will
make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days.
This will maintain above normal rain chances through the entire
forecast period. The lax gradient will help to keep winds near
gentle to moderate, but direction will fluctuate between the
northeast and southeast at times. At this time, the strongest
breezes look to stay confined to the northern portions of our deep
Gulf waters, but we will continue to monitor model forecast
trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
VFR conditions will largely prevail at both terminals through the
TAF period. However, intermittent showers or a thunderstorm are
anticipated throughout the period. Any showers or storm will be
capable of reducing CIGs and VIS to MVFR as well as produce gusty
winds. Near surface winds will mainly be northeast to east between 5
to 12 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1962, the daily record
rainfall of 1.74" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key
West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  78  88  78 /  60  50  50  50
Marathon  87  78  87  78 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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