Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
859 FXUS62 KKEY 090952 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 452 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and humid weekend across the Keys with light breezes. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide into the start of the week. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing on Monday. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Generally peaceful but muggy conditions prevail across the Florida Keys this morning. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts some broken lines of cumulus drifting northwest through the Straits of Florida occasionally crossing the island chain. While mostly dormant, KBYX radar did detect a brief thunderstorm southeast of the Middle Keys overachieving amid what has mostly been a precipitation free night. Gentle southeast winds are observed along the Reef and remain relatively unchanged from yesterday evening. These lighter winds are making for a somewhat oppressive start to the day with temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points close behind in the mid 70s! With relative humidity values near 90%, there will more than likely be some dew to wipe off windows and mirrors before any morning road trips. The short term forecast calls for one more day of lighter winds with humid and warm conditions before a potent cold front sweeps through at the start of the week. A surface ridge axis nosed over our area will maintain light southeasterly breezes into the afternoon. It will then shift east into the western North Atlantic leaving us in a col region ahead of a deep layer trough diving through the Ohio River Valley towards southeast CONUS. As a result, the next 24 hours or so holds very similar conditions to yesterday as both our winds and current airmass will remain constant in this prefrontal environment. Expect humid and warm conditions but still only a slight chance of rain as a mix of dry air aloft and an unfavorable low level wind profile keeps organized convection at bay. Monday will be a completely different story however. The previously mentioned deep layer trough will surge into the southeast US with an associated surface cold front blasting through the Gulf and into our area. Gentle to moderate northwest breezes will quickly freshen to strong breezes by Monday afternoon. Sharply increasing winds will enhance surface convergence and numerical guidance is quick to suggest enhanced PoPs, but less moisture in the middle to upper levels atmosphere ahead of the front is keeping PoPs slight at best for now. The peak of the wind event looks to be set for overnight Monday with strong to near gale northerly breezes currently forecast. These winds will then gradually slacken through Tuesday but stay in at least the moderate category for the rest of the week. A strong northerly blow will also bring a cool (cold for the locals) and dry airmass with low temperatures possibly below 60 across the Keys Monday night! This unusually early sample of dry season conditions will not last for too long however, as temperatures recover back to near normal before the end of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic through Sunday. This will result in mainly light east to southeast breezes, potentially becoming variable at times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday bringing fresh to strong northerly winds by Monday afternoon. While the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Minimal rain chances early will slightly increase towards the end of the period, but remain low enough to preclude TAF mention. Winds will be generally light from the east through midday, turning to the west by this afternoon and remaining light. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded at Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded at Key West in November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 73 83 57 / 20 20 20 0 Marathon 83 74 80 55 / 10 20 20 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest