Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
287 FXUS62 KKEY 081012 CCA AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 410 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida this morning. Breezes will slacken quickly after sunrise. - Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal, but gradually trend warmer through the weekend and into next week. - Nil rain chances are expected for the next several days as dry air remains entrenched across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 Another quiet night for the Florida Keys with no rain yet again detected on the KBYX radar. High pressure diving out of Canada and expanding equatorward has allowed our winds to clock around from the northeast this morning. As a result, we are getting a late nocturnal surge off the mainland with most marine platforms reading moderate to fresh breezes. The relatively stronger winds through the overnight has also meant that temperatures have stayed in the upper 50s to near 60. This most recent nocturnal surge will end quickly after sunrise and breezes should slacken to light to gentle across our waters north of the island chain, while slackening only to gentle to moderate for the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida waters. Dry air will continue to filter in as the aforementioned broad surface high settles along the Eastern Seaboard today and tonight. As it settles along the Eastern Seaboard it will briefly become disorganized as a potent shortwave aloft moves through Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. By Tuesday the surface high will reconsolidate just off the Southeastern U.S. coast and then slowly meander eastward across the Atlantic. At this time, while the shortwave will dive into the Sunshine State late Monday into early Tuesday, we`re not expecting this feature to impact the Keys. This is because a low level mean layered ridge will slide east across the Gulf Basin and help to steer any low level energy well to our north and northeast. Locally, we will see winds wax and wane through the next several days, tending to peak during the overnight hours. Temperatures through this period look to be remain fairly similar with daytime highs reaching into the lower to mid 70s and overnight lows falling into the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 A late, weak nocturnal surge is ongoing across the Florida Keys this morning with moderate to fresh northeast breezes. These breezes will slacken shortly after sunrise, more noticeably across the nearshore waters north of the island chain. As high pressure settles across the Eastern Seaboard and slowly re-consolidates off the Southeast U.S. coast, breezes will undergo a wax and wane cycle. Breezes will tend to peak during the overnight and slacken during the late morning and early afternoon hours. As the high develops off the Southeast U.S. coast, winds will have more of an easterly tendency. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Near surface winds will remain mainly north early this morning, becoming north to northeast after daybreak, and becoming northeast to east this evening and overnight. Frequent gusts of 20 to 23 knots are expected this morning creating for a crosswind. The gusts are expected to relax heading into the afternoon hours. Dry air will also continue to dominate with nil rain chances prevailing. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1895, the daily record low temperature of 49F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 74 62 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 72 61 72 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest