Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
582 FXUS62 KKEY 041741 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light showers will continue to wax and wane across the island chain leaving VCSH at both locations for the next few hours. Showers that pass directly over either terminal could briefly deteriorate CIGs and VIS and TEMPOs will be included if need be. Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 A busy morning for portions of the Straits of Florida and deep Gulf waters. KBYX radar is detecting stronger thunderstorms that are currently northeast of the Dry Tortugas. Outside of those thunderstorms, garden variety showers are impacting portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. GOES-19 satelitte imagery displays that while the Lower and Middle Keys are cloudy, the Upper Keys are in a mostly sunny skies. This shows in the temperature difference while Key West is currently 82F and Key Largo is observing 85F. Along the Reef, winds are northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots. This morning`s 12z sounding recorded 2.03 inches of PWAT which is almost a quarter of an inch more than last night`s value, which checks out with more showers in our CWA today. For the rest of the day, things will continue similarly with showers and thunderstorms popping up in various locations before burning out and coming back down. 60% PoPs seems appropriate for the environment, so no changes are necessary to this update. && .FORECAST... Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary it developed along will hold in place through the upcoming weekend. All of this to say, we are still expecting an active period of weather for the Florida Keys. As this features lifts northwest of the Keys by Monday, high pressure that remains anchored along the eastern half of the U.S. will fill back in. This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary will attempt to lift north of the Florida Keys but get shoved back across the island chain as the high builds in. This will keep the boundary and moisture in place through next week. When combined with the moderate to fresh breezes, convergence zones will likely develop at times and promote shower and thunderstorm development. Therefore, will keep generally above normal rain chances through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas will act to weaken the pressure gradient briefly across the Florida Keys. This will result in slackening breezes veering from the northeast to the southeast through Sunday. This system is expected to drift west- northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. As it lifts north and northwest of the Keys, high pressure across the Atlantic will build back in resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest