Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
960 FXUS62 KKEY 050913 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 413 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend with the approaching new moon. - Rain chances will be near to below normal for the remainder of this week. - Dew points is expected to slip to near 70 degrees by this weekend due breezes turning to light to gentle northerlies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 A surface ridge stretches southwestward off the southeast Atlantic coast, across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf. This ridge is being pinched by a mid latitude low over northeastern North America and a non tropical low developing well northeast of the Bahamas. As a result of this setup, breezes in the Keys are light to gentle out of the northeast this morning. Meanwhile, weak lower to mid level ridging is splayed across Florida and under the descending branch of an upper southern stream trough. Last evenings sounding indicated precipitable water was around 2 inches with ample CAPE and zero inhibition. However, in recent hours, convective activity across the area has been spotty and generally weak with no thunderstorms. It`s possible that some expected lower level drying has begun to move in. The weak surface through lower level ridge is expected to remain across the Florida Peninsula today. The Keys are expected to remain just outside of the cyclonic envelope around the western periphery of the non tropical low far to our east northeast. Expect surface winds to be light to gentle out of the northeast to east today. Forecast soundings suggest inhibition will remain essentially non- existent, but lower level instability will diminish, along with continuing lower level drying. The steering flow is expected to be east northeast, much like yesterday. This will, once again keep the door open for island cloud lines and South Florida seabreeze activity pushing towards the Keys. For now, will maintain slight chance for showers and thunderstorms for today. Conditions will be warm and humid compared to seasonal norms. Highs will be in the mid 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 A surface ridge stretching southwestward across the Florida Peninsula is being squeezed by a mid latitude trough over northeastern North America and a deepening non tropical low centered far to the northeast of the Bahamas. As a result, surface winds across Keys waters will generally be light to gentle out of the northeast to east today. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. A weak island cloud line will be possible today and may produce periods of sub VFR conditions, mostly in the form of lower ceilings. Surface winds will be light out of the northeast to east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest