Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
082 FXUS62 KKEY 051720 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 120 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle east to southeasterlies this afternoon will gradually become gentle to moderate tonight, then continue through early next week. - Bouts of elevated rain and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week. - Rain chances will return to near normal for the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Fast-moving scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of the terminals through the evening hours. Coverage in the activity will wane thereafter through the late overnight, before another round of activity may push through the terminals towards the end of the TAF period. Due to a combination of the chaotic pattern to the activity and the general scattered coverage, have elected to include periods of VCSH in the TAFs at this time, with brief bouts of gusty winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities to be dealt with with TEMPOs as needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 The congestion occurring to our west will gradually migrate further west and northwestward away from our area as the surface through lower level ridge strengthens and lifts northward towards North Florida and the Gulf coast. As the ridge doe so, easterly breezes will trend upwards, becoming gentle to occasionally moderate. Deep layered moisture is expected to remain quite high as a cut off upper low slowly lumbers its way west southwestward across our area. This will help to keep neutral to slightly troughy flow through the lower levels and deep layered moisture will remain quite high. In addition, the environment will remain unstable and uncapped. As a result, shower and thunder chances will remain above normal for the remainder of the week. Expect seasonable near 90 highs, and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the mid to upper 70s. Rain chances should slip to near or slightly below normal this weekend in to early next week as ridging becomes more dominant through the mid and upper levels, allowing moisture levels to fall to near or slightly below normal. In addition, the lower level ridge will shift slightly southward, allowing east to southeasterly breezes to relax to a gentle breezes. No trend in temperatures or dew points are expected in the extended. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 An Atlantic high centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward across Florida and into the gulf. Over the course of the next several days, this ridge will shift west southwestward closer to the Carolina coast, while its western flank shifts northward into the southeastern states. As a result, easterly breezes will trend upwards, becoming moderate over the next day or so, and hold there for the duration of the forecast. A number of subtle lower level undulations with continued high available will keep shower and thunderstorm chances above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 40 40 60 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 50 40 40 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest