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FLUS42 KKEY 240934
HWOKEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
534 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-251000-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
534 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Minor coastal flooding associated with seasonal king tides will
continue today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, with scattered
thunderstorms expected tonight. The primary hazards will be heavy
downpours, locally gusty winds, and lightning strikes.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Lower Keys and the
coastal waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge. Tropical Storm
Conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine located in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea will move northwestward today and tonight, followed
by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through
tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

The system is expected to be quite large as it moves northward
through the eastern Gulf, with tropical storm force winds extending
out over 200 miles east of the center. Expect frequent squalls
across the Keys beginning tonight and continuing through Thursday or
Thursday night. The strongest winds are forecast to occur Wednesday
evening through midday Thursday, when wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph in
squalls will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40
mph or greater may arrive in the Lower Keys as early as Wednesday
morning, but are most likely to arrive Wednesday evening.

We expect increasing winds and building seas across the Florida
Keys coastal waters beginning tonight, and Small Craft Advisories
will likely be required for waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge
from late tonight or Wednesday morning through Friday. A Tropical
Storm Warning will likely be issued later today for the waters
west of Seven Mile Bridge.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level at the shore
and lowest elevation areas will be possible throughout the Keys on
Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Coastal Flood Watch is now in
effect.

Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to
6 inches, will be possible from today through Friday, with the
potential for some rainwater flooding of low lying spots.

It is especially important to not focus on the central track for
this system, as impacts will likely extend far to the east of the
center. All interests in the Florida Keys should continue to
closely monitor the latest forecast updates from the National
Hurricane Center and your National Weather Service office in Key
West during the next few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$