344
FXUS63 KLBF 081150
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances will shift south today as a cold front
  progresses across the area.

- Lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms tonight in southeastern
  areas with dry conditions expected there after through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Precipitation chances today and early this evening is the main
forecast challenge in the near term. Upper level low pressure
will track across central Manitoba today. A trailing shortwave
trough will track from western into northeastern Montana. These
systems will force a cool front through the forecast area today.
Late this afternoon, this feature will extend from far NW
Kansas into east central Nebraska. The latest NAM12 and 00z HRRR
soln are in agreement with this scenario tonight, while the 00z
WARW is more aggressive with the front having it oriented from
west central Kansas into far SE Nebraska late this afternoon.
That being said, feel the best chances for convection tied to
the surface front will be across far southeastern portions of
the FA today. This main chance will be during the afternoon
hours as the front exits the forecast area between 18z and 21z
this afternoon. The front will push further south into Kansas
this evening shifting the surface focused precipitation south.
Behind the front, decent mid level frontogenesis will develop
this evening into the early overnight hours from far
southwestern into south central and east central Nebraska. This
will lead to a lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms
across southern portions of the forecast area. The latest NBM
forecast was dry across the south with the second round of
elevated forced precipitation. Based on the deterministic 00z
NAM12, 00z WARW and 00z HRRR solns, decided to insert a mention
of showers and thunderstorms in far southeastern areas mainly
this evening. Surface high pressure will then build into the
northern forecast area overnight, then southern portions of the
forecast area Wednesday morning. With cool high pressure being
the dominant feature across Nebraska Wednesday. Even with mainly
clear skies, highs will reach the upper 70s north of Interstate
80 with lower 80s across southwestern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure aloft across the Desert Southwest will gradually
weaken as deep troughing dives southeast from western Canada.
Southerly flow will support warmer temperatures with a return to
upper 80s to lower 90s for Thursday and Friday. Broad upper-level
height falls from the approaching longwave trough will overspread
the area. Low pressure across the Northern Plains will drag a cold
front south into the area during the afternoon/evening hours. NBM
QPF probabilities continue to favor areas to our south and east and
as a result, the going forecast keep most of the forecast area dry.
That said, deterministic solutions vary slightly on placement
of this boundary by roughly 100-200 miles. Any slower
progression with this feature will bode more favorable for local
rain chances thus confidence in precipitation potential remains
low for now. More unsettled weather will be on tap for the
weekend as enhanced mid- level flow resides immediately north of
the area. Though upper-level dynamics will largely miss the
immediate area, reasonable moisture fetch from the Gulf combined
with mid-level moisture originating from the Eastern Pacific
will combine to produce PWAT values nearly 1-2 sigma above
normal values for mid-September. NBM remains fairly noisy with
broad low-probabilities for wetting rain and this closely aligns
with the latest EPS solution. That said, deterministic
ECMWF/GFS solutions are fairly aggressive with rainfall over the
weekend but particularly Sunday night as a surface low takes
shape in the lee of the Central Rockies. This will be something
to watch in the coming days including a potential severe threat
with stronger mid-level flow supporting a sheared environment.
Of course the question remains where the frontal boundary sets
up. NBM inner- quartile spreads remain large, 20F for North
Platte on Sunday, highlighting this uncertainty.

Towards the middle of next week, upper-level ridging will redevelop
over the southern CONUS with increasing influence across Nebraska.
Though NBM MaxT spread remains large, gradual day over day increases
are noted from Monday through Thursday. While heights aloft will
increase, non-zero precipitation potential will exist. Though no one
day appears to be a washout, recurring rain chances should be enough
to keep us on the wetter side of normal for the time frame. This
aligns with the latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 outlook which
hedges towards > 40% probabilities of above normal precipitation for
Tuesday through the end of next week. Details are far from certain
so continue to check back with later forecasts for details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Scattered showers continue to drift east across central Nebraska
and should remain east of all area terminals for the remainder
of the day with the exception of KBBW where only minor impacts
are possible. Expect cloud bases to remain at or above 10kft AGL
for the remainder of the period. A frontal boundary currently
diving south through the area will lead to largely northwesterly
winds early in the period with a brief period of gusts around 20
knots for both terminals. This afternoon and evening, winds will
largely become variable as high pressure works in. As this
occurs, speeds should largely favor 5 knots or less with more
westerly winds becoming established late in the period across
the Sandhills.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ