511
FXUS63 KLBF 282010
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances expected to start in earnest this evening across
  the region as tropical moisture arrives, with potentially
  heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. With heavy rainfall
  possible, a Flood Watch has been issued for southwest and
  central Nebraska.

- Rain chances begin to wane Thursday into the weekend. Cooler
  than seasonal highs are expected across the region from
  Thursday through early next week.

- Thursday night into Friday morning, expect a return to more
  seasonal lows, with lows in the low to mid 40s. Lows are
  expected to remain in the 40s through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

An upper level trough continues to dig south across the western
United States, as Hurricane Polo begins to take on its northeastward
track. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the plume of moisture
from the remnants of Odalys tracking across Colorado and western
Nebraska this afternoon. The 18z KLBF sounding shows the layer of
deep moisture advection aloft, with PWAT values already exceeding
the 90th percentile for late September. A surface low pressure
system remains over western South Dakota, firmly placing our region
in the warm sector of the system. Strong southerly surface winds are
observed this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph across most of
western and north central Nebraska. A few showers are already
ongoing across northern Nebraska this afternoon, but have remained
lower end precipitation so far. By tonight, a cold front tracks
eastward, which should provide the lift for more widespread showers
and thunderstorm activity. With all the deep, tropical moisture in
play, rainfall amounts could get heavy at times, with most of the
area likely to receive at least wetting rainfall. Across the
Sandhills and into north central Nebraska, amounts could reach as
high as half an inch to an inch overnight into Tuesday morning.
However, with thunderstorms also expected in the mix, there is
potential for even higher local amounts.

Tuesday, Hurricane Polo begins to interact with the upper level
trough, which will quickly weaken the storm and bring another plume
of tropical moisture across the Plains. As the low across the
Dakotas slowly tracks east, another low pressure system is expected
to develop and deepen off the Front Range of the Rockies and slowly
lift north. With all the surface convergence between the two
systems, rainfall is likely to continue across western and north
central Nebraska. By Tuesday night, as the deeper moisture begins to
arrive from Polo, rain chances continue, with chances for heavy
rainfall continuing. As the tropical moisture arrives in earnest on
Wednesday, expect rain to continue through the day, lasting into the
nighttime hours. Rain could again remain heavy at times.

There still remains some level of uncertainty in where the heaviest
bands of precipitation will set up over the next few days, given
disagreement in the southern extent of a northern jet stream. If the
jet stream remains slightly further north, as some guidance
suggests, we may see heaviest precipitation setting up along
southwest and central Nebraska, including the I-80 corridor.
However, if the northern jet sags slightly further south, this could
push the bulk of precipitation just to the south and east. With the
uncertainty still looming, have decided to keep forecast more in
line with ensemble guidance. While there is very high confidence in
precipitation totals through Thursday night exceeding 2 inches to
the south and east of us, there is still around a 40 percent chance
of our area exceeding 2 inches, primarily along and south of
Interstate 80. Ensembles remain fairly optimistic in an area south
of an Ogallala to Thedford to O`Neill line exceeding one inch
through Thursday, however. With ample deep layer moisture in place,
and PWATs exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology, still think
that there is strong potential for heavy rainfall through Thursday
morning. With this unusual set up bringing ample tropical moisture
across the region and heavy rainfall expected, have collaborated
with neighboring offices on issuing a Flood Watch from Tuesday
evening through Thursday evening across southwest and central
Nebraska. Areas of greatest concern will remain lower lying areas,
including canyons and dry creek beds, which may be prone to flooding
and flash flooding. However, if the forecast changes slightly, there
may be need for a slight northern expansion. Make sure to stay up to
date with the latest forecast information over the next several
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Rain chances begin to wind down Thursday morning into the afternoon
hours, as an upper level low pushes south of the region. While this
may keep rain chances continuing to the east, confidence lowers on
wrap around precipitation continuing across our region. Worth
remembering that the Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday
evening, as waters may take time to recede if flooding occurs.

With the upper level low remaining to the south, guidance continues
to suggest the low will bring in a mass of cooler, Canadian air
across the region. This cooler air mass is expected to bring
temperatures below seasonal average, with highs remaining in the 60s
into the weekend. As a slight push of warmer air occurs on Saturday,
may briefly see highs reach the lower 70s, but for the most part,
expecting 60s into early next week. For reference, early October, we
typically see highs around 71 to 73 degrees with lows around 40 to
42 degrees. So, even if we do see a slight temperature increase on
Saturday, expecting it would mostly remain near climatological
normal. However, brace for the more seasonal low temperatures to
return near the end of the week. We have mostly remained well above
our seasonal normal lows in large part to the higher dewpoints
overnight. Thursday night into Friday morning, widespread lows are
expected to be in the low to mid 40s, and while not unusual for
October, still about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than we have been
experiencing. For now, forecast trends indicate that we should be
near to slightly above seasonal with our lows through the weekend,
with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Again, while not unusual for
October, folks with outdoor plants and animals sensitive to cooler
temperatures may want to pay attention to this change in the
pattern. Forecast trends continue to suggest that we may finally be
seeing more frequent fall like weather late this week into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Cloud cover remains across most of the region this afternoon, as
deep layer moisture tracks across western and north central
Nebraska. This is causing mostly MVFR ceilings, with some locations
breaking to VFR for a few hours this afternoon. By this evening,
expecting a fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the region, bringing in lowered ceilings. Conditions
are expected to drop back to MVFR, if not IFR in heavier downpours.
Once rain begins this evening, expecting rain to continue through
most of the effective TAF period, with lower ceilings prevailing.
Gusty winds are expected to persist into the evening hours,
eventually calming and taking on a more westerly direction.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening for
NEZ038-058-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie