516
FXUS63 KLBF 052043
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A loosely organized complex of showers and thunderstorms
  should organize eastward out of the Panhandle into western
  Nebraska this evening.

- Chances for storms overall appear to diminish Sunday afternoon
  into Sunday evening.

- An incoming front will lead to heighten shower and thunderstorm
  chances late Monday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures will remain abnormally warm but precipitation
  chances will diminish mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon across the Panhandle...should grow upscale into a
loosely organized complex across the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska this evening and overnight. Overall the shear is weak,
and locally heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds appear to be
the main risks. PWATS are on the increase this afternoon as
sub-tropical moisture is flowing northeastward into the area
around the periphery of upper level high pressure that remains
anchored across Kansas and Oklahoma.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into
Sunday morning across portions of central into north central
Nebraska. Appears that a lull in thunderstorm activity may
persist Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with very little
forcing and upper level high pressure nosing northward into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The upper ridge will remain over the Central to Southern Plains
through mid day Tuesday, bringing southwesterly flow across the
Rockies and heading into the the Northern Plains. A deepening low
will form across the Pacific Northwest and move eastward across
southern Canada during this time frame as well. Moving down to
the surface, a cold front will drop south late Monday and stall
out Tuesday over central Nebraska. This feature will be the
primary focus for the potential of increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. While these precipitation chances will be
increased with a line of 50 to 70 percent chances stretching
from portions of southwest to north central Nebraska,
accumulations remain fairly lackluster. Guidance suggests a 30
to 50 percent chance of areas within that line of higher PoPs
receiving at least 0.10" of wetting rains, with that
probability dropping to 10 to 30 percent of receiving 0.25".
Additionally, severe probabilities remain uncertain at this
time. Monday look to be the hottest for the week while the upper
ridge remains at its peak, with highs climbing to the mid 90s
across the region. Areas along and south of I80 could see highs
further climbing into the upper 90s. Tuesday width aid from the
incoming cold front will keep highs primarily in the mid to
upper 80s cross the region.

By the middle of the week next week, the upper ridge will build
westward, creating largely zonal flow. While the aforementioned cold
front will push further south out of Nebraska, zonal flow remains
above our region and as such high pressure will settle int much of
the Plains for the remainder of the week. This will not only keep
abnormally warm temperatures in the region, where highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s (5 to 7 degrees above normal) through Friday;
but will largely zap the region for any measureable precipitation
chances until the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered TSTMS are expected through the period across most all
of western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. Surface winds will generally be from
the southeast at 5-15 kts, but expect locally variable and
stronger gusts near any thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Taylor