785
FXUS63 KLBF 081820
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
120 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
  across western and north central Nebraska, with a Slight Risk
  (Level on 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms near and south of
  Highway 2. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, though
  a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon across
  western Nebraska, with a Red Flag Warning in effect Tuesday
  afternoon into the evening. Additional concerns are possible
  Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

- Hot temperatures are forecast on Tuesday afternoon, with highs
  in the upper 90s possible. A Slight Risk (Level on 2 of 5) for
  severe thunderstorms all areas east of the panhandle. Large
  hail and damaging winds are possible.

- Cooler air arrives for the weekend with periodic chances for
  rainfall returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A disturbance moving through southwestern NE this afternoon will
bring scattered thunderstorms east of Tryon to Imperial, heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, along with frequent lightning
expected. Marginally severe hail also possible. A brief break
late this afternoon, before thunderstorms develop late this
afternoon in northeast CO and the Nebraska panhandle, and move
east into western and southwest NE this evening. This supported
by recent runs of the HRRR and 12Z RRFS. While large hail is
possible across southwest NE, damaging winds appear to be a more
widespread concern. Looks fairly quiet after midnight with a
return of light south winds across the west.

Tuesday, surface low pressure will deepen across eastern CO and the
Nebr. panhandle. A well defined dryline is forecast to develop
across the far eastern panhandle. Gusty southerly winds Tuesday
afternoon, along with low RH west of Highway 61, will lead to
critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for fire zone 204 and is highlighted in the fire weather
section below. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s.
By late afternoon, with the arrival of a mid level shortwave
and peak heating, the latest 12z HRRR and also the GFS and NAM12
initiate convection near the dryline. As for the severe threat,
forecast DCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along with moderately steep mid
level lapse rates Tuesday afternoon would lead to a primary
threat for damaging winds with a secondary threat for large
hail. The latest 12Z HRRR and RRFS indicate isolated discrete
storms in the moist sector east of the dryline as early as 20Z.
Storms developing off the dryline the potential for bowing
segments Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as convection
traverses from western into central NE, leading to a wind threat
Tuesday night.

Wednesday, a gusty west to northwest wind 20 to 35 mph in the
morning through mid afternoon. Highs 83 to 92. Much drier air, with
dewpoints falling into the upper 20s to low 30s west, with another
day of critical fire weather conditions possible (west of Valentine
through Broken Bow). Lows chances for showers/storms Wednesday
night as a shortwave trough moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Thursday, cooler and drier air with a northwest wind 15 to 30
mph. Fire weather concerns persist with afternoon humidity 15
to 25 percent. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.

Dry Friday with a west northwest flow aloft. warming up to the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

A cooling trend Saturday and Sunday with shower chances
increasing Saturday night into Sunday. Highs by Sunday forecast
to range in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation concern for southwest
NE including the KLBF terminal now through 21Z. Very heavy rain
and frequent lightning are expected with visibility below 1SM
possible, with an increasing threat for gusty winds. As this
activity moves east into south central Nebraska later this
afternoon, another round of storms may move into southwest NE
this evening. Have not included in the current TAF this evening,
but will monitor for possible inclusion. Strong wind gusts the
main concern. All activity will exit the area after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday, critical or
near critical fire weather conditions will be possible,
especially in fire zone 204 where fuels are ready to burn. Winds
on Tuesday will be southerly 15 to 25 mph with potential gusts
up to 40 MPH in the western Sandhills and eastern panhandle. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for zone 204 Tuesday afternoon
through mid evening. An additional concern for dry lightning.

On Wednesday, winds will shift to the west northwest with
potential to gust up to 45 MPH. Widespread minimum RH of 10 to
20 percent is expected across all of western and north central
Nebraska. Critical fire weather conditions will hinge on fuel
status which currently favors zone 204. Northwest winds will
remain gusty on Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 35 MPH.
Minimum RH will range from around 15 percent in the southeastern
panhandle to around 25 percent in the northeast. Friday will
see near critical or possibly critical fire weather conditions
in the west. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 MPH are possible
along with minimum RH west of highway 83 of 10 to 18 percent.
Winds are forecast to be lighter Saturday and Sunday along with
cooler temperatures which will alleviate fire weather concerns
across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg