183
FXUS63 KLBF 062100
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm potential enters the picture Monday afternoon and
  especially during the evening. Briefly severe storms will be
  possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Precipitation chances will decrease by the middle of the week and
  remain low until possibly early next weekend.

- Slightly cooler but abnormally warm temperatures will remain for
  the rest of the week with Wednesday being the coolest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A couple of thunderstorms could clip northwest Nebraska this
evening as they move northeastward off the higher terrain from
the west. Overall most of the area is within an area of
subsidence behind this morning`s MCS which has moved into Iowa.

Otherwise, upper level ridging will remain anchored across the
southern plains through Monday night. Meanwhile a potent upper
level low will be crossing southern Canada with upper troughing
extending southward into the Rockies and northern Plains. A slow
moving cold front associated with the northern plains
troughing...will be located from near Bassett to Ainsworth by
late Monday afternoon. Moisture pools ahead of the front with
PWATS nearing 1.75 to 2.0" before any convective initiation
along the front. That is a very moist atmosphere which leads to
a locally heavy rain threat Monday night. As far as the expected
scenario:
widely scattered thunderstorms should develop from north to
south along the front during the late afternoon hours.
Development should first be across north central Nebraska where
overall forcing will be somewhat stronger. As winds back to the
southeast slightly ahead of the front during the early evening,
convergence along the boundary increases with storms expected to
become more numerous. Upper-level flow is parallel to the front
so will have to watch for training of storms, which would
increase the heavy rain threat. As far as the severe potential,
overall shear and instability would support storm organization
and at least some potential for some briefly severe storms. This
may be more early on while storms are more isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A deep upper trough parked over sourthern Canada near the Pacific
Northwest will move eastward through Tuesday into Wednesday and
flatten out the upper ridge that is over much of the Plains. During
this timeframe near the surface, a cold front will push across the
northern Plains throughout late Monday through Tuesday. This front
will come into contact with a moist airmass provided by strong
southwest flow ahead of it. Combine this with modest but sufficient
wind shear, increased chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms
will linger into Tuesday morning. Once the front passes through,
slightly cooler temperatures will be in its wake for the remainder
of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to to potentially low 90s
further south along I80. Wednesday in particular will be the coolest
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.

The flattened ridge will become a more zonal flow regime through the
mid week with high pressure settling across Nebraska. This is likely
to preclude precipitation chances until the following weekend where
a deepening upper trough is forecasted to take shape across the
Pacific Northwest sometime Saturday morning. Once this trough
crosses the Rockies, it will support increasing precipitation
chances as well as the potential fore returning to near normal highs
for the time of year in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions can be expected through Monday morning
across western and north central Nebraska. The exception will be
the possibility of some temporary MVFR ceilings around sunrise
Monday morning across north central Nebraska. Also, some
sporadic areas of LLWS can be expected late tonight through
sunrise Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Taylor