381
FXUS63 KLBF 191157
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued hot temperatures with a heat advisory for Sunday and
  Monday

- An isolated chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons

- Temperatures cool back to near to slightly below seasonal
  levels Wednesday and Thursday.

- Confidence increasing for a widespread wetting rainfall
  Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- Heat begins to return Friday and Saturday with dry conditions
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Short Term (Today through Monday night): The main concern in
the short term will be the extreme heat on Sunday and Monday
along with isolated thunderstorm chances both days. The upper
level high will remain situated across the High Plains Sunday
and Monday, with Monday being the warmest day of the two. Strong
WAA Sunday and Monday with 850 temps Sun. around 27 to 30
degrees celsius and Mon. reaching around 30 to 33 degrees
celsius. This will lead to sfc highs in the upper 90s to low
100s Sunday and Monday. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to
100s as hot sfc temperatures combine with dew points in the 50s
and 60s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the northern
Sandhills into north central Nebraska for Sunday and will
continue through the overnight Sunday night as lows will remain
in the 70s. The Heat Advisory is then extended for Monday to
include the entire forecast area. Most models continue to come
in slightly warmer with each run for Monday with greater
confidence in widespread high temperatures reaching 100 degrees
and some locations across southwest Nebraska reaching into the
low 100s, however at this time temperatures are expected to
remain below record highs.

There will also be the chance for isolated thunderstorms both today
and Monday. For today the focus for any isolated thunderstorm
development will mostly be across the northwest Sandhills as storms
will develop across the higher terrain and move eastward into the
area. The environment will not be supportive for thunderstorms to
sustain themselves and are not expected to become severe. For
Monday, expect storm development to form near the frontal boundary
across the Sandhills into central Nebraska Monday afternoon. Storms
will again be isolated in nature and diurnally driven. Storms are
expected to remain below severe limits. The main hazards for any
storm development will be lightning and the potential for some
moderate to heavy downpours, however some gusty winds and small hail
can`t be ruled out. Expect any isolated thunderstorms that does
develop to diminish by mid to late evening as sunset nears.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tuesday...Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front
with a north to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph. H85 temperatures do
cool to 22 to 27C, with highs 89 to 95 (warmest in the southwest).
The deterministic GFS and Canadian GDPS do generate light
precipitation, mainly western Sandhills and southwest. NBM
probabilities of greater than 0.01 inch is only up to 20 percent,
so confidence remains low on measurable amounts. Tuesday night,
confidence increases, with chance to likely POPs after midnight west
of Highway 83. NBM probabilities of greater to a tenth of an inch 25
to 50 percent.

Wednesday through Thursday...A reprieve from the heat is expected as
the upper ridge will be pushed further west and south into the
Intermountain West and Southern Plains with upper troughing across
the Great Lakes. This will place western Nebraska in northwest flow
aloft. Surface low pressure is forecast to be across southeast
Colorado Wednesday and southwest Kansas Thursday. Wednesday into
Wednesday night, continues to give the best opportunity for
scattered to widespread wetting rainfall. MId level frontogenesis is
indicated as an H85 jet increase Wednesday night. Likely POPs for a
good a majority of the period Wednesday into Wednesday night,
lingering into Thursday morning east. NBM 24 hour probabilities for
greater than 0.25 inches is from 50 to 70 percent. The GEFS, ECMWF
and Canadian ensembles all support widespread wetting rain. Another
period of  chance POPs Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The
upper ridge is forecast to build eastward into the region Friday and
Saturday with dry conditions.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday low 80s to upper 80s, with near 90
southwest. Friday should see highs close to normal in the upper 80s
to low 90s, with heat returning to the low to mid 90s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours at the KLBF and
KVTN terminals. Stratus with IFR ceilings was east and
southeast of KVTN, which should lift the next few hours.
Otherwise mainly SKC this morning will become SCT080 after 18Z
until 00Z at both TAF sites. South to southeast winds will gust
to 17KT at KLBF during the afternoon and to near 20KT at KVTN
during the afternoon through the evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and early
evening hours west of the KVTN terminal and will not be included
at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ004>010-026>029-094.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg