968
FXUS63 KLBF 012002
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
202 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasing rain coverage through the evening Sunday, continuing
  into Monday and Tuesday with a few embedded thunderstorms
  non-severe thunderstorms possible.

- Strong northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will overspread
  the area behind a strong cold front for late Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Drier weather arrives by late Tuesday with a return to more seasonable
  temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Early this afternoon, south southeasterly flow was prevalent across
the area. Gusts were steadily increasing with speeds around 20 to 25
mph. With little change from early morning temperatures, the result
has been for steady or even decreasing "feels like" temperatures
resulting in a fairly raw day. Temperatures ranged from the middle
50s to lower 60s, which is as much as 10F above normal for the time
of year.

Tonight...lee cyclogenesis will ramp up tonight ahead of an
approaching upper-level disturbance set to cross the central Rockies
overnight. The resulting surface height falls will compress the
pressure gradient and lead to increasing winds overnight. Current
gusts around 20 to 25 mph will increase to 30 to 35 mph with
stronger flow immediately off the surface. The resulting warm air
advection from a northward lifting warm front will lead to a non-
diurnal temperature swing with slowly climbing temperatures through
daybreak Monday. This likely leads to the calendar day high
temperature occurring close to Midnight tonight for all areas along
and east of Highway 83 and even possibly as far west as Highway 61.
As this warm front lifts through western Nebraska, scattered rain
showers should encounter greater available instability and allow for
some embedded thunderstorms to form. HREF guidance suggests MUCAPE
values approaching 500 j/kg with the NAM12 suggesting some greater
pockets closer to 750 j/kg. While this should fall well short of
supporting strong, much less severe, convection, it should be enough
to get some lightning and rumbles of thunder in the area.
Consecutive HRRR runs advertise this materializing late tonight,
perhaps after 10pm CDT (04z) with a quick end as the dry slot
arrives. Morning temperatures should be comparable if not slightly
warmer than Sunday`s highs, with the calendar day low temperature
for Monday likely not occurring until the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Monday/Tuesday...deep low pressure will settle in southern South
Dakota early in the day Monday with a crashing cold front exiting
eastern Wyoming. With an influx of cooler air from modest Canadian
high pressure over the northern Rockies, temperatures will likely
fall quickly through the remainder of the day. Though some questions
remain about timing of the said frontal passage, most NWP guidance
generally agrees it`ll be before Noon for areas west of Highway 83
and by mid afternoon for areas to the east. With a deep surface low
falling below the 5th percentile in NAEFS climatology, increased
kinematics resulting from a tight pressure gradient will promote
strong cold air advection. This will lead to falling temperatures
for most of the day west of Highway 83 as gusts ramp up markedly.
Expectation is for gusts to increase to 30+ mph for these areas with
a delayed onset of the stronger winds to the east. As the frontal
boundary progresses south and east, it`ll encounter richer moisture
within the warm sector where instability should be more readily
available. The NAM12 solution paints localized areas of 1000 j/kg
MUCAPE within a strongly sheared environment. This would support a
strong to potentially severe thunderstorm threat but confidence in
where storms initiate on the boundary remains low. The latest SPC
Day 2 Outlook keeps any severe threat east of the area, which aligns
with HREF probabilities. That said, the NAM12 and HRRR solutions
prog a further west frontal position which would introduce a greater
thunderstorm threat for our eastern zones in central Nebraska. This
will need to be closely monitored going forward. Rain will continue
further northwest beneath the deformation band with greater QPF/PoPs
limited to South Dakota and closer to the Pine Ridge/far western
Sandhills. While precipitation will continue overnight Monday into
Tuesday as temperatures fall, it`s believed that the fall should be
slow enough to preclude anything but rain as the predominant
precipitation type. Interestingly, the RAP13 suggests some potential
for a mix in our far western zones (west of Highway 61), but this
remains fairly uncertain for now. By early Tuesday, a dynamic
vertically stacked system should be in place over eastern Nebraska.
With western Nebraska on the back edge of this system, winds will
become the primary concern. Wind gusts should increase through late
Monday/early Tuesday where ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) values
climb to around 0.6-0.8 with non-zero Shift of Tails (SoT) values.
NBM hourly gust probabilities reach 60-80% of exceeding 41 knots by
Monday evening with further increasing spatial coverage by Tuesday.
Though probabilities decrease notably when upping to 48+ knot
probabilities, BUFKIT soundings show efficient momentum transfer
potential beneath a belt of h85 flow pushing 40-45 knots. Do believe
consideration should be given to High Wind Watches with later
forecasts as 50 knot gusts cannot be ruled out at this time. While
some diurnal bump in temperatures appears possible Tuesday, it`s
unlikely to be overly significant and thus high temperatures for the
day will likely occur early with values only in the middle 40s to
lower 50s. As the main h5 low stalls over eastern Nebraska,
precipitation should linger for west central through eastern
Nebraska and only once the low begins to weaken/track away do winds
diminish and PoPs decrease. Low temperatures will continue to fall
and should approach the freezing mark Tuesday night for our western
areas but settle in the upper 30s for all other locations to the
east.

Wednesday and beyond...convoluted pattern in the extended. Active
northern stream jet should settle south again with a secondary low
crossing out of Colorado by Thursday/Friday. This southern track
will likely carry with it most if not all precipitation potential
with it and this is echoed well with the NBM 90th percentile QPF
output which maintains dry conditions locally. A steady stream of
disturbances will train from the Pacific Northwest through the Great
Lakes for the late week and while this will keep synoptic lift
absent to the north, trailing frontal boundaries should lead to
slightly varying temperatures and low end precipitation chances. The
model blend paints Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs Saturday into Sunday
for the area though individual EPS/GEFS outputs show fairly low
probabilities themselves for measurable moisture so expect some
adjustments with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An approaching disturbance will bring a multitude of aviation
impacts to the area over the next 24 hours.

As early as Sunday afternoon, an expanding shield of
precipitation will lift north and east across the area with
degrading CIGs and visibility. Later tonight, more appreciable
rain chances arrive with a slight chance/chance for thunder as
well. Convective coverage should remain isolated to widely
scattered with -SHRA/-RA more widespread. Eventually a dry slot
will arrive from the southwest and herald an end to
precipitation for many southwest Nebraska terminals including
KLBF. Though precipitation may end/taper off, winds will
increase with strong LLWS for the region overnight tonight ahead
of a strong front arriving by the end of the period and strong
northwest winds in the post-frontal airmass.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ