805
FXUS63 KLBF 220534
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase late tonight though Wednesday,
  especially across the Sandhills.

- Cooler Wednesday, especially across portions of north central
  Nebraska, where highs may struggle to reach the lower 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday,
  with locally heavy rainfall possible due to anomalously high
  moisture across the region.

- Hot and predominantly dry conditions are expected to return
  this weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 90s to lower
  100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An expansive area of upper level high pressure remains anchored
across Colorado. The center will slowly drift to the southeast into
the Southern Plains through Wednesday night. This will allow for
increasing sub-tropical moisture to move northward through the
Rockies and then turn eastward across the Plains on the northern
side of the upper high. An embedded wave within the flow will enhance
lift across the area late tonight into Wednesday. Models and
ensembles continue to advertise a swath of decent (potentially
locally heavy) rainfall across portions of the Sandhills. This is
roughly centered along Highway 2. ECMWF ENS PWATS are impressive
before the onset of any rainfall, generally around 1.4", area wide.
That corresponds well with the observed 18Z sounding at North Platte
with a measured 1.36", which is above the 90th %tile for this date.
As lift increases with the approaching wave tonight, showers with
embedded thunder should blossom from west to east across the
Sandhills. This precipitation shield peaks during the morning hours
then wanes during the afternoon. Amounts greater than 1" will be
possible in spots, again most likely along the Highway 2 corridor.

Another disturbance and rainfall is expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. This could focus a bit farther south than the first round,
but also give the Highway 2 corridor area additional rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday, a weak mid-level disturbance will move across the
area, providing increasing warm air advection (WAA),
frontogenesis, and differential cyclonic vorticity advection
(DCVA) sufficient to support widespread showers and
thunderstorms through much of the morning. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity given weak deep-layer shear.
However, moisture across the region will remain quite
impressive, with recent model guidance continuing to depict
precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding 1.5 inches. These
values are near the 95th percentile to near the climatological
maximum for this time of year, highlighting just how anomalous
the atmospheric moisture will be. Forecast soundings also
indicate deep moisture profiles supportive of efficient rainfall
processes and locally heavy rainfall. Wherever the primary band
of showers and thunderstorms ultimately develops, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. Current NBM guidance depicts the
highest probabilities of rainfall exceeding one-half inch across
portions of central Nebraska. There remains considerable
uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall axis will
ultimately set up, and some adjustments to its placement are
expected given the forecast remains two days out. Forecast
trends will continue to be monitored over the next several
forecast cycles. High temperatures Thursday will range from the
middle 70s across central and north-central Nebraska to the
lower and middle 80s across western and southwest Nebraska.

Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
as additional lift spreads northward into southern Nebraska,
potentially bringing another period of precipitation to portions of
central Nebraska Friday morning. Once again, moisture profiles will
remain quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes and locally
heavy rainfall. Confidence in the exact placement and timing of
precipitation remains modest at this range, and forecast trends will
continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles.
Temperatures will begin to moderate, with highs in the middle 80s
across central Nebraska and the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
remainder of western and north-central Nebraska.

Saturday and beyond, the upper-level ridge centered across the
southwestern United States is expected to strengthen and expand
northward across the central Plains, with forecast 500-mb heights
approaching 597 dam by Saturday afternoon. In response, 850-mb
temperatures are forecast to increase into the 25 to 30C range.
Given sufficient daytime mixing, these temperatures would support
widespread afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across
much of the forecast area. This pattern is expected to persist
through the remainder of the forecast period, favoring hot and
predominantly dry conditions as the primary storm track shifts north
of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with
ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. There is a small
threat for light rain showers overnight but with expected
isolated coverage, will forgo mention in the KLBF TAF. Expect
broken to overcast ceilings to carry over into the day on
Wednesday with ceilings ranging from 7000 to 15000 FT AGL. For
the KVTN terminal: There will be a threat for rain showers in
the vicinity of the terminal overnight with a better threat for
showers Wednesday morning. Ceilings may fall off to 1500 to 3000
FT AGL in heavier showers, mainly from 14 to 18z Wednesday. The
threat for showers will end early afternoon Wednesday with
ceilings increasing to 3500 to 6000 FT AGL through mid
afternoon. Ceilings will then increase to 6000 to 10000 FT AGL
late Wednesday afternoon, persisting into the evening hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Buttler