979
FXUS63 KLBF 092356
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening, favoring the Panhandle through
  southwest Nebraska, with an isolated strong to briefly severe
  thunderstorm possible.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week. Highs
  in the 80s are expected, with potential to break into the 90s
  Monday and Thursday.

- The combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions, will lead
  to at least elevated fire weather concerns for next week.
  Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday bring the greatest risk for near
  critical to critical fire weather conditions. The risk
  encompasses the entire forecast area on Monday, northeastern
  areas on Tuesday and western portions of the forecast area on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The Montana shortwave, will continue to track southeast this
afternoon, initiating convection over the western and
southwestern Panhandle in the 2 to 4 PM CT time frame. This
activity will track to the east southeast impacting portions of
the southeastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska through mid
evening. The latest NAM12 soln this morning does develop a
modest area of 300 to 600 J/KG CAPE along and south of a line
from Oshkosh to Brady this afternoon. This area is in the
vicinity of very steep H85 to H70 lapse rates, of which are
maximized along a line from Scottsbluff to Chappell. Forecast
soundings in the panhandle and SW Nebraska this afternoon, do
indicate decent mid level instability, however low level
instability appears lacking with the cold front backing in from
the northeast and expected weak low level easterlies. Inverted V
type soundings appear to favor gusty winds with the stronger
storms, with a limited severe hail threat located over far SW
portions of the forecast area into northeastern Colorado. This
severe threat appears to be maximized during the 4 to 8 PM CT
time frame. Overnight, the threat for precipitation will shift
southeast from the Panhandle, exiting SW Nebraska during the
overnight hours as the shortwave trough enters NW Kansas and
eastern Colorado. Surface high pressure Sunday morning, will
transition south of the forecast area during the afternoon
hours. Light westerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon with
cooler temps expected behind the exiting shortwave. Highs Sunday
will top out around 70 with partly cloudy skies. Lows Sunday
night will be around 40 degrees with mostly clear skies and
light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Ridging will begin to build into the southwestern CONUS Monday
with ridging extending north into the Intermountain West. North
of the ridge, a northern stream disturbance and surface low,
will track across southern Canada. Southwesterly winds will
increase across the forecast area Monday leading to much warmer
temps in the upper 80s to near 90. This feature also will
produce gusty winds across the forecast area. The latest NBM
ensemble wind gust probabilities, indicate a 80 to near 100
percent chance of 25+ MPH wind gusts Monday afternoon. With
highs around 90 and afternoon dew points generally in the 30s,
critical fire weather conditions look probable across the entire
forecast area Monday afternoon. One area which we will need to
watch is the far western forecast area Monday with respect to
RFW potential. Trailing south of the southern Canada low is a
surface trough of low pressure. The latest GFS soln has this
feature over the western Panhandle Monday afternoon, while the
NAM12 soln has this feature anchored over NW Nebraska. INVOF
this feature, am expecting lighter winds which will play into
the decision for any Monday RFW headlines. A decent cold front
will push into the forecast area Monday night, shifting the
winds to the north. For a short period Monday night, we could
see some gusty winds with passage of this feature. By Tuesday,
the gusty winds will be confined to eastern portions of the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler with
passage of the front, topping out in the middle 70s to lower
80s. However, with very dry air noted behind the front, we could
see another day of critical fire weather conditions. This would
be mainly over the eastern forecast area, where low RH and the
strongest winds are co-located. The latest NBM ensembles favor
the highest probabilities for 25+MPH wind gusts over far
northeastern portions of the forecast area into eastern South
Dakota. Ridging aloft, will transition east into the Rockies
Wednesday. This will lead to increased southerly winds across
the forecast area Wednesday and decent warm air advection. Highs
Wednesday will reach into the 80s for the entire forecast area
with the warmest readings in the west and southwest. Winds will
be strongest across the western half of the forecast area with
decent gust potential above 25 MPH Wednesday afternoon. Minimum
RH Wednesday afternoon will bottom out in the 15 to 20 percent
range, leading to a decent threat for critical fire weather
conditions in western areas. Ridging aloft will migrate east
onto the plains Wednesday night, being forced by a west coast
trough. The mid range solns show signs low level jet development
Wednesday night, driving decent low level moisture into the
forecast area for Thursday. This moisture does transition east
Friday into Saturday. However, the latest NBM forecast does have
a continuation of limited low level moisture into Saturday.
This leads to limited POP chances and a continuation of daily
fire weather concerns across the area. The deterministic GFS and
EC solns have remained consistent with the notion of moisture
return late next week, so will not highlight any fire weather
concerns beyond Wednesday. With the NBM, unseasonably warm temps
will continue with daily highs well into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will be the rule across all of western and north
central Nebraska the next 24 hrs. Localized showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible this evening across the
Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Later tonight a few scattered
showers may also develop in generally the same area. Surface
winds will decrease and become light early this evening and
continue overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor