023
FXUS63 KLBF 220601
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
101 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms will
  continue today through Thursday night across the area with the
  greatest threat over central and eastern portions of the
  forecast area.

- Much cooler temperatures are likely today and Thursday, mainly
  over central and eastern portions of the forecast area with
  highs reaching only into the 70s. More seasonal highs are
  expected over southwestern Nebraska with highs in the 80s to
  around 90.

- Hot and predominantly dry conditions are expected to return
  this weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 90s to lower
  100s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over western Kansas with
a ridge extending west-northwest of this feature into southern
Idaho. Tropical storm Bertha was located approximately 100 miles
south of Mobile Alabama. North of this feature, a strong trough
of low pressure was located over eastern Ontario. This feature
extended south into the upper Ohio Valley. In between this
trough and the ridge across the central Rockies, northwesterly
flow extended from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and
Nebraska. Within this flow several weak disturbances were noted
tonight from southwestern Montana into Wyoming. Radar imagery as
of midnight indicated a couple of meso vortices, one around
Scottsbluff, and a second southeast of Cheyenne. The second area
has led to some light rain showers along the Cheyenne ridge.
Another area of light precipitation was present along the
SD/Nebr. border, but the majority of this has been slow to reach
ground level.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today through Thursday...Precipitation chances over the next 36
hours will be the main forecast challenge in the short term.
Mid level frontogenesis will spread east southeast from southern
South Dakota into northern and northeastern Nebraska this
morning. Increasing lift in the mid levels, will lead to
precipitation development, mainly this morning across northern
portions of the forecast area. Eventually this precipitation
should make it to the surface. Very warm mid level temperatures
will limit instability and convective potential today, so the
main mode of precipitation will be showers with a limited threat
for thunderstorms. The threat for precipitation will wane
across north central Nebraska as the afternoon progresses.
However, anticipated cloud cover, will limit highs to the 70s in
the north. Further south, with more sun anticipated, highs
should reach into the 80s today and possibly around 90 in the
Imperial area. A second area of mid level forcing will track
from northwestern into portions of central Nebraska tonight. The
favored track of this forcing is roughly along highway 2 from
Antioch to Broken Bow. Again, mid level instability is weak at
best given the warm mid level temps and should limit the
thunderstorm threat with the main precipitation mode being
showers. As for QPF potential with the two rounds of expected
precipitation, the latest wPC and NBM forecasts have trended
down their amounts with this evening`s forecasts. Given the mode
of mid level forcing being mid level frontogenesis, am
expecting a sharp cutoff in precipitation with QPF`s quickly
decreasing outside of the areas with the best mid level
frontogenesis. Given tonight`s GFS and NAM runs, not expecting
much in the way of precipitation across far SW Nebraska over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Precipitation will shift southeast of the
area Thursday morning. With cloud cover persisting across
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area, highs again
will struggle to get out of the 70s. Late Thursday afternoon, a
decent mid level trough will approach the Black Hills and
Nebraska Panhandle. Two areas where precipitation potential is
highest is over northern Nebraska in the vicinity on the nose of
an inverted trough. A second area of precipitation initiation
may take place over northeastern Colorado INVOF a warm frontal
boundary. This activity may push into SW Nebraska Thursday
night. However, this scenario is only supported by the GFS soln
as the NAM keeps precipitation south of the area over northern
Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday night...An H7 closed low over south central SD into north
central NE will drop southeast into the Mid Missouri Valley by 12Z
Friday. This will bring chance POPs across the area during the
evening, and the eastern zones after midnight. Model consensus is
for most of the measurable rainfall will be across north central NE.
NBM 12hr hour probabilities for greater than 0.10 inch is only from
25 to 40 percent east of Callaway through Bassett. Areas to the west
look drier with only a 5 to 15 percent probability.

Friday...The upper ridge center will intensity over the Four Corner
Region as upper ridging builds back into Nebraska. Sunny with light
south to southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Highs reach 92 to 96 west of
Highway 83, with 85 to 90 in the east. With dewpoints near 65, heat
indices reach 90 to around 95, making outdoor activities unpleasant.

Saturday through Tuesday...The upper ridge will remain centered from
Colorado through Oklahoma, with upper ridging extending north into
the Northern Plains.  Mainly dry conditions, although isolated
thunderstorms are possible. H7 temperatures around 18 to around 20C
Saturday warm to around 20C Sunday through Monday. Mainly dry
conditions, although isolated storms appear possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday, despite the warm
temperatures aloft.

Hot temperatures are also likely. NBM probability of exceeding 100
degrees is from 60 to 90 percent across north central NE, the
western Sandhills and southwest for both Saturday and Sunday with
forecast highs from the upper 90s to low 100s. Highs Monday are
likely to remain hot in the upper 90s, with around 100 possible.
Highs may lower a bit Tuesday into the low to mid 90s, as an upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes with a weak cold front through
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with
ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. There is a small
threat for light rain showers overnight but with expected
isolated coverage, will forgo mention in the KLBF TAF. Expect
broken to overcast ceilings to carry over into the day on
Wednesday with ceilings ranging from 7000 to 15000 FT AGL. For
the KVTN terminal: There will be a threat for rain showers in
the vicinity of the terminal overnight with a better threat for
showers Wednesday morning. Ceilings may fall off to 1500 to 3000
FT AGL in heavier showers, mainly from 14 to 18z Wednesday. The
threat for showers will end early afternoon Wednesday with
ceilings increasing to 3500 to 6000 FT AGL through mid
afternoon. Ceilings will then increase to 6000 to 10000 FT AGL
late Wednesday afternoon, persisting into the evening hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler