841
FXUS63 KLBF 292325
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms along a cold front may lead to
  locally heavy rainfall this evening across central Nebraska.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will lead to a threat
  for heavy rainfall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
  The greatest threat for heavy rain is southeast of a Grant to
  Bartlett line.

- Cooler and drier conditions return for Friday and into the
  weekend, with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently, scattered showers continue to slowly exit central
Nebraska, with light accumulations possible through late afternoon
east of HWY 183. Further west, a cold front bisects the area and is
positioned from roughly Imperial to Tryon to Spencer. Temperatures
range from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

For this evening, expect the aforementioned cold front to move
very little and remain positioned across the Sandhills into
tonight. High resolution guidance continues to suggest scattered
thunderstorm development along this boundary, within a narrow
corridor of MLCAPE as high as 750-1000 J/kg. Meager deep layer
shear suggests limited updraft organization, though near record
PWATs and long, skinny CAPE suggests a threat for locally heavy
rainfall. These storms are expected to end after sunset, with
drier conditions briefly returning into the early overnight
hours.

Attention then turns to the much advertised threat for heavy rain,
in association with the remnants of once Hurricane Polo. As of
this afternoon, Hurricane Polo is coming onshore of western
Sonora, Mexico, where it is expected to quickly transition to
post-tropical as it approaches the Mexico/New Mexico border.
This low is then expected to move quickly north tonight,
reaching southwestern Kansas by tomorrow afternoon. As this low
lifts north towards the area, a deformation axis of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move northwards towards the I-80
corridor by tomorrow afternoon. Near record PWATs remain in
place across much of the area this afternoon and tomorrow, and
this suggests very efficient rainfall in any showers and storms
across the area tomorrow.

Confidence continues to wane with respect to rainfall amounts, with
the area expected to be on the northern side of the heaviest swath.
A very sharp cutoff in amounts is expected across the area with this
system, as a consequence of a northern stream trough expected to
quickly move across the northern tier tomorrow. This will usher a
much drier Canadian airmass southwards into the area, and this drier
air will limit the northward extent of any showers and
thunderstorms. In fact, this has many similarities to a typical
winter system, where drier air to the north leads to a sharp cutoff
within an FGEN snowfall band. Still, believe a threat for a swath of
1 to 2" exists for areas south of I-80 through Thursday morning.
Confidence in heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding continues to
wane, though plan to keep the Flood Watch intact as is. If trends
continue to shift the heaviest rainfall further south and east,
further adjustments and possible cancellations of the Flood
Watch may be warranted, especially on the northern end.

The system begins to quickly depart by Thursday afternoon, with
drier conditions then expected as surface high pressure spills
southwards into the area. This will bring in much drier air and will
allow for much colder lows into early Friday morning. Lows in the
lower 40s seem to be a good bet, and some potential for lows to dip
into the upper 30s exists. Trends will continue to be monitored, as
this could bring the first Fall frost to portions of western
Nebraska Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The area then settles into a much more Fall-like pattern for Friday
and into the weekend, with mild afternoon highs in the 60s to 70s
amid much drier air. This will also allow for overnight lows in the
middle to upper 40s, which is much closer to average than we`ve seen
for much of the month of September. As upper ridging begins to
amplify across the western CONUS into early next week, temperatures
will begin to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s across the
area. This will also moderate overnight lows, with lows returning to
well above average in the middle to upper 50s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of
southwest and north central Nebraska into the evening hours. These
showers will remain fairly isolated, but some brief visibility
restrictions are possible. A brief dry period will persist through
the overnight hours, but ceilings will drop to near 1000 feet across
southwest Nebraska. Currently not expecting any fog development, but
will continue to monitor this possibility over the next few hours.
Increasing rain chances return Wednesday afternoon as the remnant
moisture from Polo pushes into the region. Expecting widespread
showers through the afternoon with visibility restrictions down to 3
miles at times. A strong push of drier air from the north will keep
showers confined to areas mainly south of Highway 2 with the only
impact across northern Nebraska and KVTN being some lower ceilings
down to 5000 feet.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ038-058-059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik