028
FXUS63 KLBF 022025
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for light precipitation will continue through this
  evening for most locations across the forecast area. The
  threat for precipitation will linger into Tuesday and Tuesday
  evening for far eastern portions of the forecast area.

- Gusty northwesterly winds will continue tonight into Tuesday with
  gusts of 40 to 50 MPH possible.

- Expect near seasonal temperatures from Wednesday through
  Monday with highs mainly in the middle to upper 50s. Other
  than a slight chance for precipitation over the Sandhills and
  portions of north central Nebraska Wednesday night, dry
  conditions are forecast through Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A highly amplified UA pattern was present across the CONUS and
Canada this morning. A broad trough of low pressure extended
from southeastern Manitoba, south-southwest into New Mexico.
Within this trough, satellite imagery has two areas of low
pressure. The first is over northern South Dakota and a second
is over far southeastern Colorado. A shortwave was also present
over southeastern Wyoming. Low amplitude ridging was present
from the Ohio Valley north to the Great Lakes. West of the
central CONUS trough, high amplitude ridging extended from
central California, north into southern portions of British
Columbia and Alberta. West of this ridge, closed low pressure
was approximately 700 miles off the coast of northern
California. The low over northern South Dakota had forced a cold
front through western and north central Nebraska. The first
front was a wind shift which is being followed by a secondary
front which was the leading edge of stronger cold air advection
and stronger winds. As of 2 PM CT, this boundary was located
roughly from O`Neill, to Broken Bow to south of North Platte.
Skies were mostly cloudy and readings ranged from 49 degrees at
Gordon to 63 degrees at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The threat for precipitation, associated with the southern area
of low pressure aloft, along with wind potential over the next
24 hours are the main forecast concerns. For Tonight, the
southern stream upper level low will track across southern
Kansas, ending up in southern portions of the Flint Hills of
Kansas by 12z Tuesday. Further west, the upper level disturbance
will drift south from southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and western Kansas. Precipitation will be focused in
two areas tonight, first from south central into eastern
Nebraska in association with deformation precipitation on the
back side of the Kansas low. Second, across the panhandle into
far SW Nebraska in association with the southeastern Wyoming
shortwave and modest isentropic lift (305k thetae level). As for
a corridor from North Platte to Ainsworth, limited lift and
moisture generally below the H750 level will limit precipitation
chances overnight. This was incorporated in the gridded
forecast for tonight and for North Platte, precipitation chances
were actually decreased from the previous forecast. As for
temperatures tonight, the forecast was initialized with the NBM
and lows appeared to be on the low side. With the expected cloud
cover tonight and gusty northerly winds and persistent mixing,
decided to trend lows tonight upward which brought them more in
line with the latest MET and MAV guidance. This yielded lows
generally in the lower 40s tonight with some mid 40s in the east
and upper 30s in the far west. With respect to winds tonight
into Tuesday, the latest NAM12 soln has a decent surge of H85
winds later this evening into the overnight, from western South
Dakota into central and western Nebraska. This surge in winds is
coincident with some pressure rises and limited cold air
advection. That being said, feel confident in at least some 30
to 40 MPH wind gusts overnight, especially in the Sandhills. On
Tuesday, the upper level low will track north-northeast from
southern portions of the Flint Hills of Kansas, into
northwestern Iowa. As the upper level low approaches NW Iowa,
deformation precipitation on the western periphery of this
feature may back into eastern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area Tuesday/Tuesday night As for highs Tuesday,
persistent northerly winds, and cloud cover will limit highs to
the middle 40s in the northeast and east, with some lower 50s
possible further west in the eastern Panhandle and far SW
Nebraska. With clearing expected in the central and west Tuesday
night, lows will bottom out in the upper 20s to around the
freezing mark west of a line from Broken Bow to Ainsworth. East
of this line lows will range from around freezing to the middle
30s in the O`Neill area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The upper level low will slowly cross northern Iowa into
southern Minnesota overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
shortwave, rotating around the western periphery of this
feature, will approach northern Nebraska Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. This will bring a slight chance for showers,
mainly north of the interstate. At the same time, a southern
stream disturbance will track from the southern Rockies into the
southern plains. Precipitation in association should remain
well south of the forecast area. Expect dry conditions to
commence beginning Thursday afternoon, continuing through
Monday. Highs will generally be in the middle to upper 50s into
the weekend with 60s possible early next week. The latest NBM is
on the cool side of the guidance envelope and falls short of
the ECX and MEX guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect MVFR ceilings over the next 24
hours with ceilings down to around 1500 FT AGL. Showers will be
possible in the vicinity of the terminal tonight with no
reductions in visibility anticipated ATTM. Northerly winds will
be gusty over the next 24 hours, reaching up to around 35 KTS
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect MVFR ceilings today with cloud decks ranging from 1000 to
1500 FT AGL. Ceilings will fall below 1000 FT AGL this evening
and remain there until late morning Tuesday. There will be a
threat for very light rain/drizzle tonight with visibility
possibly being reduced to 3 to 5 miles at times. Like the KLBF
terminal, northerly winds will be gusty at times through 18z
Tuesday with gusts generally in the 25 to 35 KT range.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler