265
FXUS63 KLBF 141121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence in some isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this evening with a heavy rain and flooding
  potential.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again
  Saturday night with a marginal severe risk and continued heavy
  rain concerns.

- The unsettled pattern continues into early next week, with
  near daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing
  across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently expected to develop across
Kansas and push northward into Nebraska through the early morning
hours. While the best instability exists to our south and east, some
weak instability is present over southwest and into central Nebraska
which should provide a favorable environment to sustain at least a
few stronger to briefly severe storms. Some hail as well as damaging
wind gusts will be possible, although heavy rainfall will likely be
the main concern with this activity. At this time, not anticipating
widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see
rises leading to some localized minor flooding, especially in
ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy
rain the past few days.

Lingering showers will likely continue through Friday morning mainly
east of US-183. The next round of thunderstorms arrive Friday
evening, after 6pm CT. Thunderstorms will develop across the
Panhandle before pushing eastward into the overnight hours. Models
are inconsistent in placement and development of these storms and
therefore confidence is on the lower end. Regardless modest
instability will be present across the region which should support
at least some stronger storms, but also a few severe storms. Hail
will be a threat initially, but as the low level jet intensifies
overnight, the potential for damaging winds as well as heavy
rainfall will increase. Again, some localized flooding may be
possible especially in urban areas as well as some of the locations
that have seen significant QPF over the last several days. However,
a lot will depend on the speed of the storm track and whether
rainfall can accumulate in one area to add to a flooding concern.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Saturday, with a
mostly dry forecast throughout the day and isolated thunderstorm
chances returning by the afternoon and into the evening as peak
heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. Ample instability
will exist across southwest and into central Nebraska which should
support at least a few severe storms across the region. As with
previous days, hail and strong winds will be the primary threats
with these storms. Storms will persist through the overnight hours
before diminishing by sunrise Saturday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain below normals through
the early weekend ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s both today
and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into
the upper 50s to low 60s through Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The active pattern looks to continue as we head into Sunday and
early next week, within strong and persistent west-northwest flow
aloft. Guidance suggests more than a few shortwaves will progress
through the mean flow aloft, with a near daily threat for showers
and thunderstorms across the area. That said, the transition from
southwesterly to west-northwest flow aloft, the area loses it
monsoonal moisture tap. This leads to PWATs falling below the highly
anomalous levels seen much of the past few days. Still, with strong
flow aloft and adequate instability, some threat for strong to
severe storms will likely continue into early next week as well.

Temperatures look to remain near to below average each day for
Sunday and into next week, with daily highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. The exception to this looks to be Tuesday at this time,
with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
boosts highs into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Regardless, the
upcoming week looks to continue to be a reprieve from the hot
conditions we saw earlier this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Low stratus and patchy fog will persist through late this
morning, with widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibilities
continuing. Gradual improvement back to VFR is expected for all
terminals into this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are
possible across western and southwest Nebraska tonight, though
confidence in impacts to KLBF remain too low for inclusion for
now.

Light and variable winds this morning become southeasterly this
afternoon, at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown