Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 081157
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
557 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The latest GOES West mid-level WV imagery indicates a wave moving
into the Gulf of Alaska. This wave is forecast to move through the
Pacific Northwest and northern CA by 12Z Thursday. At the surface,
low pressure currently extends south from Alberta Canada southeast
through WY into eastern CO. Across western NE, cloudy skies were
exiting the far northeast with mainly clear skies across the west.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper teens over the western
Sandhills with some upper 20s in north central NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The forecast focus in the short term will be the warmer temperatures
today followed by a cooldown Thursday.

An open wave currently was located over the NV, UT and AZ borders
and will lift northeast today and cross western NE this evening.

For today, mostly clear skies this morning with increasing high
clouds this afternoon with the approach of the before mentioned
wave. Surface low pressure will deepen to our west, with a south
to southwest winds increasing to 10-25 mph by afternoon. Highs to
reach around 55 across the west and central (near 60 far
southwest) to near 50 far northeast.

Tonight, the upper flow will remain fairly zonal as the upper trough
drops into the Pacific NW and northern CA. Will also see a weak cold
front move into the area later tonight.

On Thursday, the upper trough will deepen and advance into NV and
srn CA by late afternoon. Snow will overspread much of the region
north of the Four Corners and extend as far east as the NE
panhandle. Highs behind the front will be cooler from the upper
30s northwest Sandhills to the upper 40s and low 50s southwest
NE. Winds will turn to the north and northeast during the
afternoon as mid and high clouds quickly overspread the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The main forecast concern in the long term will be the potential for
some significant snow accumulations Thursday night into Friday.

This upper trough axis will reach western WY and the Four Corners
Thursday night as mid level frontogenesis increases from
southeast WY into the Nebraska panhandle and north central NE.
Surface low pressure will deepen over southeast CO into southern
KS. A warm front will become located east across central KS.
Colder air will be drawn southward from South Dakota and eastern
WY into western NE.

The deterministic GFS, NAM and ECMWF continue to generate moderate
to heavy snow Thursday night across the northwest Sandhills eastward
to near Mullen and Ainsworth. A look at 300mb winds, a jet max
(120 to 140kts) will be located from northwest CO and far
southeast WY across SD into central MN. This will support upper
level divergence from the right entrance region of the jet across
the panhandle and north central NE Thursday night through Friday
morning. This and the resulting mid-level frontogenesis in the
850-700mb level will focus the heaviest snowfall amounts north of
a Lisco through Thedford and Ewing line. Forecast snowfall
amounts for this area remain similar to the previous forecast from
5 to 8 inches. Locally higher amounts near 10 inches possible in
Sheridan and western Cherry County. This continues to line up well
with the current Winter Storm Watch in effect. The gradient along
the southern edge did tighten up with slightly lower snowfall
amounts along the I80 corridor now from 2 to 3 inches.
Northeasterly winds Thursday night will turn northerly on Friday
and increase to 15 to 25 mph. This should cause patchy to areas of
blowing snow to develop across much of the area as highs will
only be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Confidence is medium on the track of the system and resulting
snowfall amounts. The latest models runs have shifted the track of
the system slightly north. Will continue to monitor model trends
with this system. Those with travel plans should closely monitor
the latest forecasts, as travel may become very difficult with
snow and blowing snow reducing visibility.

Dry and chilly Saturday with highs from 35 to 45, warmest in the
southwest. Upper ridging builds in and persists Sunday through
Tuesday, with upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday/Monday and 50s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Surface winds will become
gusty from the south this afternoon. Gusts could approach 30 kts
across portions of northern Nebraska. A few high clouds expected
otherwise clear skies. Winds just off the surface will increase
from the northwest late tonight and could lead to low-level wind
shear.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
afternoon for NEZ004-022>024-094.

Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for NEZ005>010-025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor


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