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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A highly amplified H5 pattern was present over the CONUS
and southern Canada this evening. Closed low pressure was present
over Lake Superior. A broad trough of low pressure extended south of
the low to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Within this trough, strong
shortwaves were noted: One over sern Minnesota and a second along
the Texas/Oklahoma border. West of the trough, high pressure was
anchored over southwest Oregon with a ridge extending north into
southern British Columbia. East of the trough, high pressure was
present off the east coast of the CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure was anchored from the central Rockies, northwest into
Idaho. Skies were mostly clear and temperatures as of 2 AM CT ranged
from 34 to 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A weak warm front will push through western and central Nebraska
today. H85 temps will reach around 20C this afternoon in SW
Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
Late this afternoon mid level cloudiness will begin to increase
over northeastern Nebraska INVOF of a frontal boundary. Highs will
be cooler in the northeast in the vicinity of the boundary. In
these areas, highs will reach the middle 70s. Winds this afternoon
could be on the breezy side, especially over the northern half of
the forecast area. Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing
potential this afternoon with the potential for wind gusts
approaching 25 to 30 MPH in northern Nebraska. Gust potential
appears lighter in SW Nebraska given the weak warm air advection
regime this afternoon. Gust potential in these areas appears to be
on the order of 20 to 25 MPH. With respect to critical fire
weather conditions today. Forecast relative minimum relative
humidity, bottoms out around 16 to 21 percent in far SW Nebraska
(fire zones 210 and 219). Wind gusts during the afternoon reach 20
to 25 MPH during peak heating. Given the dry fuels and gust
potential approaching 25 MPH, will hoist a RFW for zones 210 and
219 for this afternoon. By tonight, a cold front will approach
northern Nebraska by daybreak Wednesday. South of the front, winds
will be light from the west and lows will be in the 40s. The
before mentioned front, will push south Wednesday morning, passing
through the forecast area by midday. Highs Wednesday will range
from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s mainly south of
Interstate 80. A reinforcing shot of colder air will settle into
the area Wednesday night. With the expected cold air advection,
winds will not totally decouple, preventing widespread sub
freezing temps Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

The frontal boundary will stall across the Nebraska Panhandle
Thursday. H85 temps will range from around 4C in the east to
around 14C in the west. This will lead to highs in the middle 50s
in the northeast, to the middle 60s in the southwest. Clear skies
and light winds are expected Thursday night with guidance lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. If this verifies, it would be
the first night this fall with widespread sub freezing temps
across the forecast area. If forecast lows continue to trend in
this direction, we may need to issue a freeze warning with
subsequent forecasts. Beyond Thursday, ridging will continue
across the western CONUS. Temps will remain on the cool side with
the ridge off to the west. By Monday, the ridge will begin to
transition east with highs reaching back into the lower 80s in the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

The long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will progress eastward
while rapid upper ridge building in the Northwest Territories
results in further height falls across the northern Plains. This
will allow a backdoor front to move into the area and slightly
better mixing potential for winds on Wednesday as flow returns to
northerly. However, very little in the way of even cloudiness
expected, and no precipitation with frontal passage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Stoppkotte