139
FXUS63 KLBF 311938
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers with a few thunderstorms remain
  possible through late tonight.

- Watching for the potential for fog development early Monday morning.

- Roller coaster temperatures are likely in the extended
  forecast with a warm up through Tuesday, falling temperatures
  again Wednesday/Thursday, then warming again for the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

This Afternoon/Tonight...satellite and radar analysis depicts
decreasing coverage and intensity of rain activity for much of
central and western Nebraska. Further west, drier air working south
of the backside of the main system aloft has eroded cloud cover over
the western half of the forecast area. This has allowed afternoon
temperatures to jump into the middle 70s beneath partly to mostly
sunny skies. This has also allowed steeper low-level lapse rates to
develop. Though a warm nose around h6 and associated subsidence from
the main system to the east should quell much activity, diurnally
driven showers and weak thunderstorms are possible where the
greatest overlap of richer atmospheric moisture and boundary layer
mixing can be found. HRRR generally suggests with good run-to-run
consistency, that this will favor the area between the Highway 83
and Highway 183 corridor. Though more isolated activity is possible
further west, most locations will likely remain dry. Meanwhile, far
north central Nebraska remains beneath the nose of a modest belt of
stronger h85 flow. This is helping drive activity via WAA and
convergence in this area. Even so, radar returns are far from
impressive and local observations suggest only light rain on the
order of a few hundredths of an inch per hour. Outside of potential
weak convection later this afternoon, this should generally be the
norm for rain intensity through overnight. A slight increase is
probable closer to midnight as a localized area of fgen develops on
the north edge of another modest meso-low. This may lead to a small
area of rainfall closer to 0.25"/hour but not lead to any issues.
Low temperatures the past few nights have remained fairly mild
compared to statistical guidance. Because of this, leaned heavily on
deterministic high resolution guidance with a blend from the NBM
solution. This paints values closer to 60F under clouds and lower
50s in our far west where clearing should occur. This clearing and
cooler temperatures should allow for fog to develop, potentially
dense in spots. Confidence in placement and precise magnitude
preclude any headlines at this time.

Monday/Monday Night...what`s looking to be our last rainy and overly
cool day for central Nebraska. Surface heights will climb as weak
high pressure settles into western South Dakota. The previously
mentioned meso-low will continue to settle south and east through
South Central Nebraska during the day. This should take rain chances
with it with gradually decreasing probabilities. More uniform flow
across the area are expected as a result with breezy north-northeast
winds gusting up to 20 mph likely. Though this tends to favor CAA,
temperatures should see a 2-4F bump across the board from Sunday
with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. A dry forecast is in place
for nearly all locations by Monday evening into early Tuesday. Lows
will dip a few more degrees into the low to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Tuesday...highly amplified flow develops as ridging builds aloft and
climbs into far southwest Canada. Broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS will bottle up the cooler temperatures to the east and weak
downslope flow will promote warming across the area. Temperatures at
h85 will be boosted to the middle teens east to near 20C in the
west. This supports moderating temperatures and highs climbing back
into the low to middle 80s for most outside of upper 70s in central
Nebraska. The forecast calls for dry conditions through the whole of
Tuesday as latest guidance holds the fast approaching frontal
boundary until early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday/Thursday and beyond...within amplified flow on the
backside of the eastern trough, a much stronger trough will dive
south of out the Canadian Prairies. A strong ~550 dam h5 low will
move into the upper Mississippi Valley around midday. The strongest
dynamics with this system...strong height falls, DCVA, and
associated upper-level divergence from a 100-120 knot upper-level
jet...will largely remain well north and east of the forecast area.
This leaves any appreciable forcing for ascent to the lagging
frontal boundary which will make its pass through the day Wednesday.
The model blend populated Wednesday with largely 15-35% PoPs,
favoring far north central Nebraska in closer proximity to the
Niobrara Valley. This is in close agreement with individual EPS/GEFS
output and so have no qualms with this. Temperatures will once again
fall, however, slower arrival of the frontal boundary now produces a
larger range in forecast daytime temperatures. Highs vary from near
80F in the southwest to upper 60s in our northeast. This also
continues more into Thursday now with later recovery from FROPA.
Highs will again range from near 80F in the far west to upper 60s in
the east. This will be with dry conditions as the progressive front
settles into southern Kansas and the upper-level system remains over
the northern Great Lakes. This feature will likely cutoff and settle
over western Ontario/eastern Manitoba.  Strengthening southerly low-
level flow downstream of shortwave ridging will bolster temperatures
though and daytime highs make a run back to the 80s. The associated
ridge axis appears set to arrive on the High Plains sometime next
weekend with subsequent ridge breakdown following that. Though
setups like this typically herald fire weather concerns, recent
rains should temper overall concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Upper-level disturbance continues to slowly shift east with a
clearing line in the clouds slowly following. This clearing line
should settle around the LBF/VTN line though clouds are likely
to remain in both terminals. Conditions have already improved to
VFR at LBF and should remain largely SCT through the afternoon
though occasional BKN are possible. Thicker clouds will remain
at VTN and have maintained MVFR conditions through the day
Sunday as a result. Can`t rule out isolated shallow convection
in VTN airspace, but given sparse coverage I am not overly
confident in direct impacts so will limit to VCTS for now.

Tonight, expect redeveloping low stratus across the area to
include both LBF and VTN again. Have IFR returning to both
terminals with BR and 2SM visibility. Magnitude remains somewhat
uncertain and so will monitor trends going forward.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ