330
FXUS63 KLBF 121055
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
555 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight
  into Sunday morning across northeastern areas.

- After very warm temperatures in the 80s Monday, temperatures
  will trend downward Tuesday continuing through Thursday.
  Highs will generally be in the 70s those days. By Friday
  readings will climb back into the lower 80s for western and
  southwestern areas.

- There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
  Sunday night and continuing into the remainder of the work
  week. The best chances for precipitation appear to be Sunday
  night into Monday morning over the northern half of the
  forecast area, and the southern half of the forecast area
  Monday night through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Today into tonight, surface high pressure will settle over Nebraska
today as a cold front drops into southern Kansas. A breezy northeast
wind across the south until mid morning, then light east to
southeast winds in the afternoon. Could see isolated rain showers
across the Sandhills into central NE this morning where adequate mid
level moisture exists within fast zonal flow. Much cooler today with
highs from 73 to 77, which will be about 5 degrees below normal.
Tonight, weak warm air advection will bring low chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms after midnight across eastern portions of
north central Nebraska. Lows from near 50 to the mid 50s.

Sunday, a warm front will lift into central KS with a stationary
front back into southeast WY. A chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms in the morning across the east. Highs will
contrast from the low 80s far southwest to upper 60s in the
east. Confidence in highs is below average, as NBM guidance
shows an 8 to 12 degrees difference in the 25th and 75th
percentile max Temps. This is more pronounced across
southwestern areas. An upper ridge axis will extend across
western NE early afternoon with southwest flow across Rockies. A
disturbance located from south central WY into north central CO
will move into the panhandle by late afternoon with a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorm by late afternoon across the
northwest Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Periodic
precipitation chances continue to be the main forecast challenge in
the long term. Upper level low pressure will track from the Pacific
NW into the northern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night. In advance of
this feature, a lead shortwave will approach the central Rockies
Sunday afternoon. As this feature interacts with a narrow band of
favorable thetae and moisture along the front ranges of Colorado and
Wyoming, thunderstorms are expected to develop in these areas late
Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. Southwesterly winds
will carry this activity east into western Nebraska Sunday evening.
A low level jet, oriented from Kansas north into the Nebraska
Sandhills, will help to sustain convection into the overnight. ATTM
based on the latest deterministic GFS and NAM12 solns, along with
the NBM ensemble forecast, areas across the Sandhills into north
central Nebraska stand to see the best chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday morning. In the wake of precipitation
Monday, upper level low pressure will track across southern
Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba. Deepening surface low pressure
in association with the upper level low, will force a cold front
into the western Dakotas Monday. This feature will approach
northwestern Nebraska Monday afternoon, pushing through the
remainder of the forecast area by Monday evening. In advance of this
feature, very warm air ahead of the front will lead to highs in the
80s with near 90 in the southwest. In a setup similar to the last
12 hours, westerly winds in advance of the frontal boundary, will
limit low level moisture Monday, focusing the threat for
precipitation INVOF the front Monday evening. That being said, the
best chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be
along the cold front. This favors the southern half of the forecast
area. As for severe chances, low level moisture remains meager
Monday-even in the southeastern forecast area. Limited CAPE is noted
Monday afternoon/evening in the southeast. Given the meager amount
of CAPE, believe the severe threat will be limited at best.
Overnight Monday night, the front will be forced south into Kansas
where it will stall for the next 24 to 36 hours. This will limit
precipitation chances Tuesday into Tuesday night across the area. By
Wednesday, a deepening trough of low pressure aloft over the
intermountain west, will begin to draw the front north bringing
better precipitation chances to the southern half of the forecast
area Wednesday into Wednesday night. These chances will continue
Thursday into Friday as the upper level trough across the
intermountain west, slowly transitions east northeast into the
northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Skies will scatter out by late morning
with scattered ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. In the meantime,
ceilings will be around 15000 FT AGL. Skies will remain
scattered into the evening hours, before becoming broken after
06z Sunday. For the KVTN terminal: Scattered cloud cover is
expected through this evening with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL.
Overnight, broken ceilings around 25000 will develop and persist
through 12z Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler