598
FXUS63 KLBF 181122
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence severe storms this afternoon and evening
  with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Low to moderate confidence in thunderstorms again Wednesday
  afternoon and evening with a marginal severe risk.

- Temperatures increase for late week and the weekend, returning
  to near average (highs in upper 80s to low 90s) for mid-
  August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The majority of the showers and thunderstorms are pushing out of the
region, however a few additional showers will push into the
Panhandle by sunrise. Not anticipating these showers to become
severe, but a few stronger wind gusts will be possible. While the
majority of today will remain dry, another round of severe
thunderstorms returns by late afternoon. Recent model guidance shows
ample instability across the area which should provide enough
support for isolated to scattered severe storms across portions of
north central Nebraska. Storms should initialize by late
afternoon lasting into the evening hours and the environment
should be favorable for some large hail as well as gusty winds
up to 60 mph. While storms will weaken after Midnight CT,
lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
through Wednesday morning. These showers are not expected to be
severe, however, the lingering showers could hinder the severe
potential across the region later in the day. Still, some
moderate instability will exist across the region allowing for
at least a few stronger to severe thunderstorms to develop.
Overall, current thinking is that any severe potential on
Wednesday afternoon/evening will be fairly isolated which aligns
well with the latest SPC outlook for Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain near normal in the 80s both today and
Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into
the upper 50s to low 60s through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The threat for strong to severe storms persists into Thursday,
primarily for areas near and east of HWY 83. A surface trough is
expected to bisect the area on Thursday afternoon, providing a focus
for convective development. Flow aloft remains strong enough to
support a supercellular storm mode, and with ample instability in
place suggests a threat for both large hail and damaging winds.

Upper ridging then begins to establish establish across the
Rockies and amplifies into the weekend. This brings height rises
aloft along with increasing warm advection. Highs return to the
upper 80s to lower 90s for late week and this weekend,
returning to near and slightly above average for mid-August.
This increasing subsidence aloft also casts some doubt on
thunderstorm threats, though confidence in this remains low for
now. With the eventual approach of this trough axis, lesser
winds aloft will lead to weaker deep layer shear and at least
some reprieve in the recent severe weather across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Scattered low stratus will persist into late morning across
portions of north central Nebraska, before VFR is expected
to prevail for all terminals this afternoon. By late afternoon,
scattered thunderstorm development is possible, with storms
persisting into tonight. These storms will pose a risk for brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Winds become northerly today, at 10 to 15kts this afternoon.
Winds then become light and variable overnight, at 5kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown