Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
226 FXUS64 KLCH 101810 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1210 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry cold front pushing offshore will allow chilly lows overnight into Thursday morning then quickly moderate again by the end of the week with no significant chance for rainfall. - Another cold front is scheduled for Sunday that may bring a slight chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A strong low pressure cell is migrating across the E`rn Great Lakes region toward upper New England through tomorrow. Downstream of the parent low is a large synoptic front extending back to the Southeast Tx. After today`s quick onshore warm up, winds will shift and remain offshore through the overnight hours. Temperatures will fall to the low 40`s to mid 30`s further north across CenLA by Thursday morning. It important to note the divide between the cooler continental airmass and the subtropical airmass often, semi-persistent across the Gulf, are both very close our forecast area. Throughout the entire forecast period, it`s expected to waffle north/south offering a roller coaster like pattern with daily highs and lows. That said, this pattern of active winter time weather remaining to the north is very typical of a La Nina pattern. Winds will gradually veer southerly Thursday evening after highs top out in the low 60`s with more seasonable lows overnight into Friday. Subtropical ridging buckles across the northwest Gulf allowing a surface high over Florida to exert modest onshore flow and fairly warm highs in the mid 70`s. Concurrently a trough deepens east of the Sierra Madres in northern Mexico increasing dewpoints and moisture advection. That being said, ingredients are just not there to create any substantial rain opportunities inland. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Similar above normal temperatures and dewpoints are forecast during Saturday as the weak upper level disturbance broadens east across the Gulf. Still expect conditions to remain mostly rain free through the daylight hours. By evening, guidance continues to suggest a low end chance 10-30% of isolated showers developing overnight into Sunday morning. Winds will vary back out of the north likely hindering much convective potential for these showers. Thus, chances decrease during the day Sunday with notably cooler highs across CenLA, whereas the coast may trend warmer, in the low 60`s. Worth noting from a probabilistic standpoint there`s a realm of uncertainty amongst highs and lows Sunday given that aforementioned waffling interaction between the two airmasses, though it appears the cooler airmass will likely preside. High pressure is forecast to migrate east across the TN valley allowing a decent offshore regime overnight into Monday. Seasonable highs in the 50`s are likely as winds remain out of the north. While this high pressure migrates toward the Carolinas by next Tuesday, winds will once again veer onshore leading to gentle warm up through the following midweek. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions forecast to remain through the next six hours across all TAF sites. Expect winds to veer W to NNW though the period with occasional gusts to 18kts before winds ease after sundown. Winds will be light out of the north with mostly clear skies then vary east after sunrise on the 11th/AM. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front will continue to push offshore overnight resulting in a brief period of modest offshore winds for tonight and early Thursday before winds again become onshore by the end of the week. Also, no significant shower activity is expected through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A cold front moving offshore this afternoon will result in slightly cooler air and drier conditions with with minimum afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday around 40 percent. High pressure behind this front will move quickly to the east with southerly winds bringing warmer temperatures and an increase in low level moisture during Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 34 60 41 72 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 40 63 49 74 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 40 62 46 72 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 41 63 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30