Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
001 FXUS64 KLCH 161809 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog possible again tonight into early Monday morning. - Persistent weather pattern will continue into early week with above normal temperatures and high humidity. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday into Friday as a cold front moves through the area late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Warm and humid conditions will continue through the short term. High pressure is centered east of the local region while weak low pressure is over the plains. Between these systems the south flow continues to push in a warm and humid airmass. Aloft a ridge is over the northern gulf coast suppressing convection. Not much of a change into Monday and Tuesday from this weekend is anticipated. The only difference is a slight increase in south winds as a stronger low pressure system moves into the central plains and across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Not mentioned in the forecast is a very slim shower chance by Tuesday, less than 15%. A streamer shower or two will be possible from the gulf into west LA and SE TX, but any accumulation will be minimal to trace amounts. Patchy fog will be possible each morning while moisture remains high. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Tuesday into Wednesday an upper low will move into CA. The upper disturbance will move into the plains Thursday into Friday. Models have been waffling on the arrival time of the associated cold front and highest rain chances, however the ridge aloft will begin to shift east by mid week. This will allow rain chances to gradually increase from Wednesday into Thursday as the disturbance moves closer. With the uncertainty in the forecast regarding timing, it is hard to pin down if or when severe weather will be possible. At the current time, cape is forecast to be limited, but shear will be higher, therefore a severe storm can not be ruled out. Timing the highest rain chances, for now, is between Thursday afternoon into early Fri for SE TX and LA. Rain chances decrease through Friday with a cooler and drier airmass filtering in for the weekend. Temperatures may get back to around climo averages by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible this afternoon as the CU field develops. VFR conditions are anticipated late afternoon into mid evening, however patchy fog will redevelop late in the evening. Fog will burn off after sunrise. Rinse and repeat Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into the coastal waters into early week. This will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas. Onshore flow will increase somewhat by the middle part of next week as low pressure forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant shower activity will be Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in place into early week. An upper level high over the region will keep any significant rain chance out of the forecast through early week. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas of fog being patchy dense, especially near locations with residual smoke will be possible at night and during the early morning hours into Monday morning. The next chance for any significant rainfall will be during the middle to latter part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 60 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 61 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 65 82 64 83 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05