237
FXUS64 KLCH 170242
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
942 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s midweek

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Earlier convection continues to diminish over land with the loss
of daytime heating and air mass becoming more stable. Still
looking at a very moist air mass in place and with a weakness
aloft will see a chance for nocturnal activity over the Gulf that
will try to make it inland before dawn along the coast.

On Tuesday, will likely see a repeat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms by late morning, with latest guidance favoring
higher pops over eastern portions of the forecast area, Acadiana.

Made some minor changes, mainly to the pop and weather grids based
on latest radar trends and hi-res short term guidance.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Our upper-level pattern remains steady, with a trough digging
across the central Gulf Coast. While the trough is situated
overhead, our wet pattern will persist, bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. PWAT values remain
elevate, above the 90th percentile, supporting a Marginal risk of
flash flooding today and possibility again tomorrow. This trough
will eventually begin to shift eastward as a shortwave propagates
across the central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the
same time, ridging will begin to build in, promoting more
subsidence and leading to reduced shower activity by midweek.

Due to widespread cloud cover, high temperatures have struggled
to climb out of the 80s. However, we cant rule out a few 90s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

During the second half of the week, convection will be primarily
diurnally driven, with less organized activity and more airmass
thunderstorms developing along boundaries. As the ridge continues
to build overhead, rain chances will drop to more typical
summertime levels of 30 to 50% with showers mainly in the
afternoon. Showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, generally
dissipating after sunset.

With reduced cloud cover, temperatures will begin to rise into the
low 90s along the coast, with a few degrees higher possible
farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorm activity will be possible over the BPT terminal
through about 17/01z. As the air mass becomes more stable with the
loss of daytime heating and cloud cover from earlier convection, a
stray light shower may be possible at terminals through about
17/02z then fair weather and mainly VFR conditions through the
night. One exception will be the potential for patchy fog with
MVFR conditions at the KAEX terminal from about 17/10z to 17/14z.

On Tuesday, similar set up with a weakness aloft and a moist and
unstable air mass, so expected scattered showers and storms to
develop in the late morning into the afternoon.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  91 /  20  40   0  40
LCH  76  88  77  89 /  30  40   0  40
LFT  75  88  75  89 /  30  60   0  70
BPT  76  89  77  89 /  20  30   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07