050
FXUS64 KLCH 061725
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with
the highest probabilities across southeast Texas. Storms will
dissipate around sunset.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for southeast Texas and southwest,
central and south central Louisiana Monday. Maximum heat indices
will range from 107-113.

- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already developing across
southeast Texas early this afternoon in response to marginal
upper level support from the weakening upper level disturbance
that brought widespread storms to the region yesterday. This
influence will wane further through the afternoon as ridging aloft
builds south to the coast. A few thunderstorms will be possible
across the Louisiana parishes, but coverage is expected to be much
lower compared to yesterday afternoon.

The aforementioned ridge will continue building overnight creating
subsidence that will push temperatures into the mid 90s to near 100
for Labor Day. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
is expected to produce apparent temperatures in the 107-113 range
Monday afternoon. It`s been ten glorious days since this office last
issued a heat advisory, owing primarily to the influence of tropical
storm Edouard, but all good things come to an end and a Heat
Advisory has been issued for Monday. While many locals are likely
acclimated to the heat this late into the summer, outdoor activities
in celebration of the holiday lend additional reasoning to
advising citizens that it will, indeed, be hot out there.

Despite, and in part because of, the above normal temperatures,
scattered afternoon convection (30-50%) is still expected to be able
to overcome the subsidence of the ridge. These storms, as all storms
recently, will be capable of periods of torrential rain and gusty
outflow boundaries, but will gradually dissipate through the evening.

The rest of the upcoming week will be fairly uniform. The upper
level ridging will become centered over the Ozarks providing some
suppressive influence as far south as central Louisiana, but opening
up coastal portions of the region to scattered to numerous (30-80%)
daily afternoon thunderstorms which again will be capable of high
rainfall rates and gusty outflow boundaries. Temperatures through
the week will remain near to slightly above normal.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Some leftover
energy from an upper level disturbance over southeast Texas will
have the potential to produce a few showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon that may intermittently impact BPT. Elsewhere,
probabilities for precipitation are generally 20% or less. Winds
will remain light and variable through the period.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Low onshore winds and seas will persist this week as weak,
broad high pressure sits just inland. A tropical airmass in place
combined with a series of weak waves moving east to west over the
north Gulf will bring about daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A few small showers or thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon with the highest probabilities across southeast Texas.
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day through the upcoming
week. Away from storms, light southerly winds will prevail.  Rain
from tropical storm Edouard has provided significant drought relief
over parts of southeast Texas but much of western and central
Louisiana remain in ongoing drought.


&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66