083
FXUS64 KLCH 081118
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
618 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level ridge will build in through the beginning of the
  week helping to reduce shower activity to the more typical
  isolated to widely scattered coverage during the afternoon.

- Conditions will become even hotter and humid later in the week with
  afternoon heat index values reaching between 100 and 109
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Sunday night/Monday morning surface analysis shows high pressure
over the southeast US, providing a light onshore flow across the
forecast area. As a result, another warm and humid night is ongoing,
with temperatures currently ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s amid
partly cloudy skies. 00Z LCH sounding showed a PWAT of 1.83", which
is between the 75th and 90th percentile according to SPC climo.
While not dry by any means, this is an improvement from the last few
days of deep tropical moisture and an indication of what`s to come
this week.

A trend towards "drier" conditions will continue as we head into the
work week, as upper level ridging begins to build over the east
CONUS and provides a small cap for afternoon convection. As ridging
builds aloft, onshore flow continues to prevail at the surface, as
is usual for this time of year, keeping a steady influx of low level
moisture into the region. This will bring about a shift towards a
more typical summertime pattern of isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms each afternoon, with coverage expected to be
overall much less than the last few days. Temperature wise, highs
will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s through the forecast period,
while lows range from the mid to upper 70s. By the later half of the
week, heat indices will begin to approach the upper 100s range,
nearing heat advisory criteria for a few locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A band of light showers can be seen on radar stretching from
southeast Texas to central Louisiana. The current VFR conditions
will continue for most of the day with a slight chance for popup
showers and storms in the afternoon. Near convection conditions
will be poor with gusty winds and heavy rain. Away from convection
winds will be light and from the south.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow along with seas near 1-4 feet will
prevail through the work week, with little day to day changes
expected. An isolated shower/storm or two is possible each day, but
overall dry conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

MinRH values will run in the 50-70% range each day through the work
week as a warm and moist summertime atmosphere remains in place.
While isolated afternoon showers and storms will be possible each
day, a bit of capping aloft will keep rain chances largely in check
through the week.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...14