Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
581 FXUS64 KLCH 190622 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1222 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog will clear through the mid morning hours today. Increasing cloud cover will limit fog potential during next few days. - Persistent weather pattern will continue toward the end of the work week with above normal temperatures and humidity. - Precipitation chances return tomorrow night into Friday ahead of a Pacific cold front that will reach the area late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 High pressure over the eastern Atlantic continues to exert modest ridging into the central Gulf where it coincides with an upper level subtropical ridge this afternoon. This pattern will keep onshore winds in place for the remainder of the short term. With high pressure aloft and decent southerly fetch, evening temperatures continue to remain 10-15F above normal allowing daytime high temperatures also exceed climatological norms by a similar margin. Low 80`s are projected for today through Friday. Meanwhile lows will hang in the 60`s. Do expect to see some increasing nocturnal cloud cover tonight onward decreasing the potential for dense fog. Combination of subtropical ridging to the south and larger trough over southern Canada block the eastward movement of broader shortwave trough near the Four Corners region late Thursday evening. While this feature is forecast to help bring some precipitation to the local forecast area, the trough will begin to rotate and retrograde across the western CONUS into Friday while favorable region of speed divergence lifts north of ARKLATEX into the TN Valley. Thus, Friday`s rainfall amounts are shaping up to be modest at best. There is some conditional instability which could help a few efficient showers / storms, but by and large most areas are progged to see 0.25 inch or less. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A weak frontal boundary will move offshore and begin to stall along the northern Gulf Saturday. Very little advection due to slack pressure gradient will cause winds to become variable with some light north breezes across northeast Texas and north Louisiana. With skies clearing midday, temperatures will have a chance to jump into the low 80`s once again. Temperatures do show a slight downward trend for highs and lows moving into Sunday-mainly for interior locations- but still likely to remain several degrees above normal for this time in November. Given the expected broader gradient across the TN Valley, the aforementioned low that retrogrades off the Coast of California now gains westward acceleration as it establishes continuity with the northern Jet by Monday. There is plenty of time for this forecast to adjust either direction, however, much of the forecast guidance brings the feature across the Ozarks with a deeper amplification. The resulting forcing dynamics aloft along with a SE surface fetch off the Gulf appear more promising, or practical rather, for a wetting rainfall trending into Tuesday as the system is carried ENE along the subtropical Jet. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Areas of patchy are forming through the remainder of the nocturnal hours this evening. Winds do remain light and slightly elevated above ground level leading to BKN ceilings under 100-300ft AGL. Fog will likely striated with low ceilings through dawn before gradually mixing out 1-2 hrs post sunrise. Worth noting upper level clouds may allow for locations across CenLA slower to develop fog and likely maintain higher VIS through much of the overnight. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A series of waves moving north of the region will bring about a prolonged period of variable pressure fields and onshore winds at a breezy to occasionally moderate flow. Thursday night, a deeply amplified weather system will be approaching from the west bringing about stronger onshore winds and periods of showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will gradually increase from early Thursday into Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Persistent forecast will prevail over the coming days with elevated moisture still settled into the region. With increasing nocturnal cloud cover and winds through the later half of this week, potential for dense fog decreases. Day time RH values ranging from 50 to 65 percent with no rainfall likely until Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 83 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 82 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 82 63 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 83 66 84 66 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30