Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
117 FXUS64 KLCH 301739 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances continue through Monday as a weak frontal boundary interacts with deep tropical moisture. - Storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. - Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region and reinforce a drier/cooler atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 A very active, wet start to the weekend has unfolded across SE TX and SW LA this morning, while the eastern half of the forecast area remains dry and partly sunny at this time. The I-10 corridor from Lake Charles to Beaumont has received anywhere from 1 to 7 inches of rain so far today, thanks to a lingering frontal boundary and a very moist airmass overhead. And while rainfall has begun to taper down, more does seem to be on the way particularly for SE TX. Area radar shows a swath of rain moving southward across Tyler/Jasper CO, and while a lull in convection should keep ongoing flooding in check for the time being across Beaumont/Orange, further flooding issues will be possible this afternoon as this next round of convection makes its way south. Elsewhere, guidance shows some isolated convection may develop across south-central LA later this afternoon, but widespread flooding is not expected to be a concern. Otherwise, rainfall and overcast cloud cover has largely held temperatures in check and should continue to do so, with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Tomorrow, the stalled boundary continues its slow meander southward into the Gulf waters, while a very moist airmass persist overhead. Moisture looks to be highest across SE TX and SW LA once again tomorrow, which correlates with both the highest rain chances tomorrow as well as the position of the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall outlined by WPC. While some showers will be possible across the I-49 corridor and south-central LA rain chances are much lower, similarly to today. Overnight tomorrow into Monday, an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS begins to amplify, finally giving the lingering front overhead a good push and sending it (and the swath of elevated moisture associated with it) well south of the coast line. However, rain chances will remain somewhat elevated across the southern half of the region on Monday (generally along and south of I-10), which is also where a WPC has again outlined a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Convection should be a bit more isolated to scattered on Monday vs what we are seeing today and what is expected tomorrow, as the front and moisture slowly push south through the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The shortened work week brings a slow drying trend, both in rain chances and dewpoints, as upper level troughing continues to strengthen over the eastern CONUS and sends a series of weak fronts through the forecast area. Low end rain chances continue into Tuesday, ahead of the first of these fronts that should move through Tues PM/Wed AM. This first boundary brings slightly drier air, with rain chances tapering down and dewpoints gradually falling into the mid/upper 60s through Wed. A second boundary moves through late Thurs/early Fri, bringing a more significant shot of drier air to end the work week. NBM shows dewpoints falling into the lower to mid 60s around sunrise Fri and only increasing slightly from there through the day. While temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 through the week, the drier air should bring a nice reprieve from our typical early Sept heat/humidity. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue across the western half of the area through the afternoon, affecting BPT and possibly LCH for a bit, while scattered convection is beginning to develop near Acadiana. Mainly VFR CIGs are ongoing and expected to continue at BPT and LCH, while the remaining terminals should continue to see MVFR CIGs with occasional breaks to VFR this afternoon. Convection comes to an end this evening, with light winds and VFR conditions then prevailing overnight into early tomorrow. More showers and storms should develop near BPT/LCH towards the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Scattered showers and storms will continue across the coastal waters today ahead of a meandering frontal boundary that is currently near I-10. This front will slide toward the coast later today into tomorrow, before eventually moving through the coastal waters Sun into Mon. It will continue to serve as a focus for storm development Sunday through Monday as it does so. Winds will turn offshore today through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon, redeveloping tomorrow and again on Monday in response to a slowly advancing frontal boundary bisecting the region. The boundary will continue to slide towards the coast this afternoon into tomorrow before eventually moving through the Gulf waters on Monday. This will result in light northerly winds area-wide through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 87 68 89 / 0 20 10 30 LCH 74 87 73 86 / 20 50 30 50 LFT 73 89 73 87 / 10 30 10 40 BPT 75 87 73 87 / 40 60 40 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17