215
FXUS64 KLCH 172326
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook is outlined for eastern
  portions of the forecast area today while minor river flooding
  is expected to persist over the next few days across portions of
  Sabine and Neches

- Rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease slightly into
  the midweek ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain
  possible through the forecast period

- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of
  the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tomorrow night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Isolated to scattered showers ongoing mainly across the parishes
and Gulf waters, however we will see more of our afternoon pop up
showers and storms across most of the CWA within the next few
hours.

Currently there is a weak upper trough pretty much stretched over
the Mid West States down to the MS River Delta. This trough will
continue to weaken as it drifts eastward. However with a shortwave
rounding the base, we will see an uptick in our diurnal activity.
This activity is expected to taper this evening shortly after
sunset.

With the trough shifting off and the western upper ridge slightly
building into TX, PoPs will be isolated at best over there,
however we will still have iso to sct showers and storms tomorrow
over our eastern / southeastern parishes. Winds will still be
southerly and PWATs will still be high, so it will not take much
to get things going by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mid to late work week an upper ridge to our west will build
eastward, eventually centering itself over AR by the weekend. We
will see a reduction in moisture leading to an overall reduction in
PoPs. We will still see our run of the mill diurnally driven PoPs in
the afternoon to evening hours, however less so across parts of
SETX and parts of CenLA.

Temperatures will remain to be shower coverage dependent. Areas that
see prolonged cloud /  shower coverage will be a few degrees cooler,
however MaxTs will be hovering around climo norms with MinTs sitting
a few degrees above. It will remain humid and feel like a normal
Gulf Coast summer with heat indices in the 100-106 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A few showers or storms may be in the vicinity of the
KAEX/KLFT/KARA terminals until about sunset or 18/02z. Otherwise,
VFR expected through the night with the exception of possibility
of patchy fog with MVFR conditions at the KAEX terminal from about
18/11z to 18/14z.

On Wednesday, a moist and unstable air mass will combine with
daytime heating to produce scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, with the higher probability over Acadiana.
Therefore, will have PROB30 groups from 18/18z to 18/24z for
KLFT/KARA. Away from any convection, VFR conditions are expected.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  73  93 /  10  20   0  50
LCH  77  89  77  90 /  10  30  10  60
LFT  74  89  75  90 /  10  50  20  80
BPT  77  90  77  91 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07