935
FXUS64 KLCH 261745
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Updated the POP grids earlier to account for the widely scattered
convection which was already popping up along/south of the I-10
corridor, then blended into the previously published afternoon POP
grids which continued to look good based on latest guidance. Will
need to continue to watch the MCS sinking swd across the Red River
Valley/srn AR to see how much swd progress it can make before
dissipating...CAM guidance is all over the place with whether it
will survive the trip down here and exactly when it would encroach
the CWA. Otherwise no significant changes were made to the
inherited grids/zones as obs/trends showed they were in good
shape.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upper level ridge remains centered over New Mexico this morning
while a trough is over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. The ridge
extends across Texas and into LA. The subtropical ridge extends
from the Atlantic, across Florida, and into the gulf coast which
is providing the light onshore flow locally.

Today the ridge aloft will gradually weaken and slowly shift west
while the trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Already this
morning a few nocturnal showers are moving into the coastal areas
and generally dissipating around the I-10 corridor. Additional
convection is anticipated with the sea breeze by mid day. With the
ridge still in place, albeit weaker, temperatures are still
expected to rise well into the 90s with apparent temps climbing
into the the 105 to 110 range across inland areas. A heat adv will
be in effect this afternoon for some interior locations, although
most areas may only briefly hit the criteria of 108 before clouds
thicken and showers begin to develop. If clouds develop earlier or
slightly later, criteria may or may not be met. Shower coverage
across the lakes may be less and therefore criteria should be met
more easily for the heat adv.

The ridge will continue to weaken into Thursday and Friday
allowing more convection in the afternoons due to diurnal
heating. While conditions will be summery, a heat adv is not
anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Ridging will build back across the area this weekend. High
temperatures will once again increase a couple degrees while
convection decreases, however the typical humid gulf coast air
mass will remain in place. This may still provide a scattering of
afternoon showers and storms, especially over Acadiana which will
be farther from the center of the ridge.

A weak surface trough may drift close enough by early next week to
provide a brief uptick in convection Monday, however this will be
short lived as the upper ridge becomes centered over the Lower MS
Valley by Tuesday and surface feature washes out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with forecast soundings/time-height sections showing
pooled moisture remaining elevated enough to remain out of sub-VFR
levels. Meanwhile, a mainly wswly low-level flow will gradually
shift a little more srly as high pressure over the Gulf shifts
ewd. The main question remains convection potential, specifically
at KAEX, with a decaying MCS heading that way from the ArkLaTex...
for this issuance, have elected to cover with a PROB30 for a few
hours mid-afternoon knowing an amendment may be required if the
system can hold itself together long enough.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go
along with mainly low seas. Tomorrow through the weekend,
scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Coverage looks to be best across the coastal
waters through the morning hours. Elevated winds/seas will be
possible in and nearby thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  74  92  73 /  40  50  60  10
LCH  91  78  91  78 /  30  30  60  10
LFT  94  78  92  77 /  50  40  80  20
BPT  94  78  94  79 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...25