481
FXUS64 KLCH 141737
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response
  to an upper trough.

- An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek,
  lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.

- A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in
  multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The combination of dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and afternoon
heating will be enough to overcome weak ridging both at the surface
and aloft to produce continued scattered convection this afternoon
and early evening. Inland storms will dissipate quickly around
sunset this evening although some may continue over the coastal
waters.

Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the northern
gulf Tuesday putting a lid on all but the most tenacious afternoon
storms. NBM PoPs of 20-30% appear reasonable for this scenario. The
more isolated convection and cloud cover will result in highs
climbing into the mid 90s especially across central Louisiana and
interior parts of Southeast Texas where afternoon mixing will allow
some slightly drier air (lower 70s dewpoints) to mix to the surface.

Wednesday will be a transition day as the upper ridge in place will
begin to become displaced by a weak tropical disturbance moving into
the eastern gulf. NHC presently gives this disturbance a 30% chance
of development over the next seven days, but regardless, the surge
of moisture and proximity of the low will increase PoPs. For
Wednesday, this increase looks to be limited to south central
Louisiana which may see some scattered convection from the outer
periphery of the disturbance. The remainder of the region will
remain more under the influence of the retreating ridge which will
limit storms and yield afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
90s.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The forecast for the second half of the week will be
largely dependent on the possible development and track of the
tropical disturbance. The vast majority of guidance keeps the
disturbance very weak and sloppy while drifting it westward across
the northern gulf. In this scenario, the region will see a
significant increase in precipitation chances Thursday through
Saturday especially closer to the coast. Most likely ensemble probs
depict 1-3 inches of qpf across the region while 90% exceedance
probabilities which are used as a reasonable worst case scenario
depict 3-5 inches with the highest totals across lower acadiana in
both cases. However, this is a very low confidence forecast and will
likely change over the next few days. The increasing cloud cover and
precipitation associated with the disturbance will temper afternoon
highs a few degrees Friday and Saturday.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Scattered, diurnally driven, thunderstorms will continue through
the early evening although guidance is indicating most storms will
be waning by 22Z. Away from storms, VFR conditions and light
southerly winds will prevail through the taf period. Upper level
ridging will strengthen over the area tonight into early Tuesday
which will limit thunderstorm development Tuesday.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through Wednesday. The forecast
through the second half of the week will be highly dependent on
the potential tropical development in the eastern gulf. Regardless
of development, much higher precipitation chances and increasing
winds and seas are expected Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Diurnal thunderstorms will
develop from late morning through early evening today, however an
upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Higher rain chances return Thursday
through Saturday as a tropical disturbance begins to influence the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  76  92  76  93 /   0  20   0  10
LFT  76  93  75  93 /  10  30   0  30
BPT  75  92  75  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66