Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
841 FXUS64 KLCH 040535 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances continue Sunday as an upper level trough, weak surface boundary, and tropical wave all merge into a very moist air mass over the region. - There is some potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday, especially over lower Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin where the best moisture and lift will be located. - Lower rain chances are expected for most of the work week as drier pushes in Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Latest SFC analysis showed a quasi-stationary frontal boundary stretching along a line from near Natchez, MS to Houston, TX. The MSTR pooling along and ahead of this boundary is quite impressive, with the KLCH 00Z RAOB sampling a PWAT of 2.57 inches, which exceeds the daily max. Farther south, a broad area of low pressure was noted over the SW Gulf, imparting a generally easterly flow across areas south of the front and the Gulf waters. The pattern aloft is quite messy, with an upper low over the Bay of Campeche, a ridge over the SE CONUS, and an upper trof axis stretching NE to SW across the TX/OK panhandles into northern MX. Radar imagery this evening has depicted mostly isolated showers and the occasional thunderstorm drifting westward in the low to mid level easterly flow across the area, despite the abundant MSTR and adequate instability. Nebulous/weak forcing for ascent seems to be the primary reason for the overall lack of activity, and examining latest model progs does not offer much of a reason to believe that will change significantly. While the upper trof to the west is expected to translate EWD, it will be weakening as it does so, doing just enough to get the front and associated deep MSTR pool offshore. There will be a period tomorrow afternoon/evening when the boundary sharpens across lower Acadiana, and this may help focus more robust/sustained convection in this area. Otherwise, expect that the isolated/scattered nature will continue until a drier airmass pushes in SUN night. For the rest of the work week, high pressure will settle in just north of the area, with an easterly low level flow prevailing underneath westerly flow aloft. Deep MSTR will remain lurking just offshore, keeping rain chances near the coast and over the Gulf waters. Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal normals. Forecast uncertainty increases Friday and into next weekend with the approach and evolution of an upper level low, but the increasing rain chances shown by the NBM are reasonable. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 MVFR CIGS are starting to gradually fill in while radar continues to show mainly isolated showers. Still low confidence in the temporal and spatial details of convection the rest of tonight and on Sunday, so didn`t make many changes from the 00z package in that regard. Since the lowering CIGS seem to be playing out about as forecast, generally preserved the previous forecast for the coastal terminals as they are expected to persist here into SUN evening while introducing an improvement to VFR at KAEX late evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Moderate northeast winds and moderate seas are expected through the weekend as multiple disturbances approach the area. Winds of 10-20 kt and seas 2-5 feet are anticipated through the weekend, and small craft are urged to exercise caution. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected through this time and will cause locally higher winds and waves. Modest northeast winds will persist through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 A very moist airmass will continue across the area through Sunday, with afternoon minimum RH values in the 65 to 75 percent range. Good rain chances also persist along and ahead of a weak, slow moving frontal boundary draped across the area. This boundary will push south of the area Sunday night, with relatively drier air moving in on Monday. Dry weather will persist the rest of the week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...13 AVIATION...13