435
FXUS64 KLCH 212331
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect until 8 PM for areas along
  and north of I-10. Expect highs 97 to 104F and/or heat indices
  111 to 114F range. Coastal areas under an Advisory until 8 PM
  for HIs up to 111F.

- Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for
  southeast Texas and Louisiana Friday; this level of heat stress
  will persist through at least Monday.

- A boundary capable of producing showers and thunderstorms will
  move through this evening. The greatest threat will be strong
  wind gusts and lightning.

- Lightning and volatile winds could exacerbate fire conditions
  with storm passage. Check with your local officials for burn
  bans across SETX and CEN/SWLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Looking to 500 mb, a shortwave perturbation moved southeast
through AR/MS, inducing a pressure gradient from south AR into
north LA. The gradient then opens to the south, inducing a region
of broad lift from northeast LA to central MS. Thus, a cluster of
showers and storms have developed. Weak showers have spread west
towards the Lakes region, but none of these updrafts have
successfully taken root. This is more or less the wall of
subsidence put on by upper ridging nosing over from east Texas.

A modest increase in coverage, and perhaps intensity, will be
possible for areas north of hwy190. According to meso modeling and
the 18z sounding, the airmass overhead does carry some
characteristics supportive of wet downbursts. There is plenty of
CAPE, and lapse rates are favorable for strong updraft growth,
which is what we are seeing in the more conducive environment to
the east. However, weak capping off the surface and warm mid
layer environment both existing beneath upper ridge influence
could be enough to limit any real organized severe potential.

Where storms can overcome the limitations, strong, damaging downdraft
winds and frequent lightning are expected.

The threat should diminish with sundown.

Hot conditions will then persist through the remainder of the
weekend as high pressure moves back overhead. Temperatures and
dewpoints should not be so enhanced that extreme heat warnings are
necessary, but heat advisories will be needed.

A heat advisory has been issued area wide from 11 AM to 8 PM
Saturday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are present across central
Louisiana and are expected to move south through the rest of the
evening. Near convection conditions will be MVFR/IFR with variable
and gusty winds.

Behind the storms conditons will improve with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Surface ridging extending over the entire Gulf will keep
conditions over the waters mostly clear of rain chances and with
low, onshore winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has developed across
northeast LA and south central MS. An increase in coverage is
possible across central LA into the mid to late afternoon and
evening as a weak boundary is pushed through the region.
Confidence is low for an organized severe risk, but there is at
least a 25 percent chance of strong outflow winds and frequent
lightning with storms this evening. These hazards could exacerbate
fire conditions.

Hot and dry conditions then return from Saturday through early
next week with daytime RH mins in the 30 to 50 percent range.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-
     044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074-252>254.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...14