290
FXUS64 KLCH 091803
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1203 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A sharp Canadian cold front moving through will bring
  unseasonably cold temperatures into the new week. Portions of
  the region will likely receive their first freeze.

- Strong gradient winds from surging high pressure has resulted
  in a wind advisory over lower southeast Texas and south Central
  Louisiana today with a Gale Warning offshore in place through
  tonight.

- A Red Flag Warning is in place today given elevated winds, low
  RH, and antecedent dry conditions making dry fuels easily
  ignitable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The strong cold front continues to progress offshore with elevated
winds in its wake and a drier airmass. Due to the strong winds and
gusts, a Wind Advisory is currently in effect and will remain for
the duration of the afternoon to early evening. In addition to
this, A Red Flag Warning is also in effect thanks to the combination
of enhanced winds, low RH, and dry antecedent conditions.

Current temperatures are just barely getting into the 70s, with
highs expected to top out in the low 70s. Tonight temps will drop
into the lower to upper 30s, with near and below subfreezing
temperatures for parts of interior SETX and CenLA. As a result, a
Freeze Warning was issued. Outside of that, winds will still be a
bit breezy overnight, with wind chill values bottoming out in the
mid 20s to lower 30s.

On Monday, the concern for fire weather will still persist,
however winds will come down a bit as the surface high nears.
Nevertheless a Red Flag Warning will not be out of the realm of
possibility as MinRHs drop into the lower 20s to 30s range
areawide. By early Tuesday morning the surface high pressure will be
directly overhead with light to calm winds, clear skies, and the
coldest temperatures so far this season. A Freeze Watch is in
place for that time period with subfreezing conditions likely for
nearly the entire CWA outside of the coast. While pipe busting
temps are not expected, there is a 50 to 95 percent probability
of areas along and north of the I-10 corridor experiencing
subfreezing temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

From the middle of the work week through the rest of the forecast
we can expect warmer and more humid conditions with temps getting
to around 10 degrees above climatological norms. The high
pressure will be centered over the FL peninsula, with southerly
flow becoming more established. Aloft, the flow will be near zonal
to WNWrly as an upper ridge takes shape over MX / the Gulf. It
will flatten out as we get closer to the weekend, with an upper
trough approaching out of the west. There will be little to no
chance for rain until the end of next week and into the weekend;
even then, chances and totals remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A strong cold front has moved through the region with elevated and
gusty winds in its wake. While winds are expected to taper
somewhat overnight, they will remain slightly elevated and become
gusty again late tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A robust cold front continues to surge offshore today. Winds will
quickly increase with sustained north winds over 20-25 knots and
frequent gusts of 35 knots. A Gale Warning was issued for the
coastal waters and a Small Craft Advisory was issued for the
inland lakes and bay. Waves will build in response to the winds,
building between 6 and 10 feet today and Monday. Winds will start
to ease on Monday night, falling below 20 knots by Tuesday
morning.

A low water advisory is in effect through this afternoon as gusty
north winds push waters offshore in combination with low tide cycle.
It is possible waters will briefly fall toward 1 ft below MLLW
Monday morning, but an advisory is less likely with easing winds.

The pressure gradient tightens Tuesday into Wednesday as a high
pressure system moves off to the east. As a result, we could see
elevated onshore flow and the potential for marine fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Due to critical combination of enhanced winds, low RH, and dry
antecedent conditions, elevated fire weather conditions will
persist from today through Wednesday. Today will be the biggest
concern for fire weather as the dry cold front passes through the
region and very dry air will follow. Current RH values are in the
upper 20s to 40s, with them expected to bottom out in the mid 20s
to 30s. In addition, 20-foot winds will be from the north around
15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35. While today will be the main
concern for fire weather, elevated fire weather will be an issue
through Wednesday. For the extended forecast, to the end of next
work week, no measurable rain is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  31  54  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  38  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  58  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ027-028.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-153-154.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ180-259-260.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-516.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Low Water Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87