520
FXUS64 KLCH 122349
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms with lightning and heavy downpours possible for
  coastal areas thru sundown. Highs will range from 90 to 97,
  depending where rain falls, resulting in indices 101 to 107F
  across the area.

- High pressure moves back in Sunday with limited rain chances and
  hot conditions expected next week.

- Heat Advisory may be needed as afternoon maximum indices could
  range from 103 to 109F Sunday. Monitor the forecast closely for
  those vulnerable groups.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

There is a mix of diurnal and confluence showers/storms developing
along the immediate coastlines of Texas and into the Atchafalaya
Basin. The coverage increases from west to east as the confluence
zone has set up on the LA coastline from the Vermilion Bay to the
toe of the boot.

Not much has come from aforementioned convection, considering the
upper shortwave from recent days` activity is still near, but
east, of the region. On the western edge of the trof is a dome of
high pressure also acting to staunch the inland extent and overall
intensity of convection.

With a lack of cloud cover and rain to move inland, many areas
have warmed in to the 90s. Sfc dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
are working overtime to drive the real-feel temperature out into
the low 100s already. No Heat Advisory is in effect, but isolated
pockets up to 109F will be possible for brief periods.

Upper trof pulls out on Sunday with high pressure waiting to
quickly take the parking spot. Another 20 to 30 percent chance of
rain-kind of day will be in store between the departing weakness
and subsident high moving in. Rain chances only diminish each day
through the midweek with high settling in.

There may be a need for Heat Advisories on Sunday as highs drive
back into the upper 90s and heat indices into the 100s. The
Saturday 18Z RAOB is already considerably drier than anticipated.
The higher temps could cause more sfc mixing than we`ve been
seeing in previous days, and so HIs may be held in check. Will
continue to monitor afternoon max AptTs today to give some insight
to how tomorrow may progress.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A few lingering thunderstorms will continue to diminish over the
next hour or so with no additional development overnight. Guidance
has some intermodel consistency in indicating some possible light
fog development early Sunday morning between 09 and 13Z. This is
meteorologically reasonable given swaths of wet ground and
expected nearly calm winds. Any fog that develops will dissipate
quickly no later than 13Z. A few thunderstorms are expected to
develop around and after 18Z Sunday afternoon, but coverage will
be limited. Any impacts will be transitory and short lived.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Pockets of coastal showers and storms are ongoing across nearshore
waters. These will persist through sundown. Primary concerns will
be cloud to water lightning and locally volatile winds. High
pressure builds in Sunday through the midweek which will diminish
rain chances each day. By Wednesday, only isolated chances are
expected.

High pressure will also keep winds and seas low through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Scattered seabreeze storms will be possible for areas along and
south of interstate 10 through the early evening. Frequent
lightning and isolated downpours will be the primary concerns.
High pressure builds into the region from Sunday through the start
of the week. The chance of afternoon seabreeze storms will
diminish each day from Sunday onward with the developing upper
high. Outside of storms, expect hot and very humid daytime
conditions.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...66