Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
080 FXUS64 KLCH 120525 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1125 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures over the period will become well above normal with little to no rain chances until this weekend into early next work week. - Rain returns this weekend the chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The surface high quickly moved from atop the region over the day Tuesday and is currently centered off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Southerly flow returned as a result, and has tapered this evening. Aloft there is a ridge off the Pacific Coast of Mexico that will build into the region over the short term. We will see a rapid warming and moistening trend as a warmer Gulf airmass continues to advect into the area. From Wednesday through the rest of the short term, MaxTs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s while MinTs only fall to the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dewpoints will also see a steep rise, but despite this increasing moisture, PoPs will remain near zero. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The long term will start off the same way that the short term ended with the warm and dry (rain wise), yet humid pattern persisting. However we can expect a pattern change from late this weekend into early next work week. Model guidance still depicts a cutoff upper low hailing from the California Coast then moving eastward, however timing and locations have split amongst the models. This split will play a role in when and what we can expect in our area. The consensus seems to be that the low will weaken as it treks eastward across the CONUS this weekend, bringing back isolated to scattered showers mainly in the early work week period. While it is far too early to talk about specific QPF amounts, current guidance shows high confidence in rainfall: there is a 70 to 90 percent chance of receiving measurable (0.01+ inches) rainfall and a 40 to 70 percent chance of receiving a wetting rain (0.25+ inches) early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the forecast period, with light winds from the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 With high pressure building along the Florida Panhandle, conditions will be calm with light southerly flow and waves below 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Weak winds and moisture return will help alleviate fire weather concerns for the rest of the week. Wetting rain is looking more likely for the next work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 44 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 66 56 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 62 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 68 56 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87