Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
291 FXUS64 KLCH 061146 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 546 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry air moving in overhead will limit rainfall potential today and Sunday. Best chances for light rainfall will be Lower Acadiana. - High pressure moving east of the region brings moisture and warmth back to the region into Sunday before a sharp cold front moves through into Monday. - Dry and cool conditions expected through the midweek as a stronger high pressure area and cool/dry airmass moves into the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Analysis indicates sfc high is located just over cenMS with frontal boundary now fully clear of Louisiana. It was a very cool day today. As such, dry air is leaking in overhead (see improvements to PWATs from 12 and 00z RAOBs), but with surface influence largely characterized as deeply cool and moist, cloud cover is going nowhere fast. Upper trof remains in its position, oriented southwest to northeast from the Baja Peninsula to Minnesota, with jet influence overspreading everywhere east of its axis. Over the following days, this trof begins slowly edging east. Surface troughiness begins to form and the jet maxima descends towards the surface. This will throw a few more drizzly, piddly showers over portions of the area today and perhaps Sunday due to right entrance region passing overhead. Within any showers that develop, not anticipating any acute rain banding as the airmass continues losing that deep moisture supportive of very efficient rainfall. Sfc high shifts off to the east today, goaded on by aforementioned troughiness. This will result in quick return flow and airmass modification today and Sunday. As a result, much warmer, near normal, temps are anticipated today with temps in the 70s Sunday. Upper patterns become more meridional into the start of next work week, signaling the progression of the weather pattern. A sharp cold front will move through the region late Sunday/early Monday bringing about a ROLLERCOASTER of temperatures no one bought a ticket for. Highs in the 70s Sunday will give way to 50s by Monday with brisk offshore winds and dry conditions. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The progressive pattern swiftly moves things along by Tuesday. High pressure slides quickly east of the region bringing about return Gulf flow. Combined with ridging (rising heights) developing overhead, very warm, above normal, temps and humid conditions will develop to the end of the work week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light showers this morning will end from west to east as the boundary responsible pushes offshore. IFR conditions will improve to VFR at BPT, LCH and AEX by mid to late morning where they`ll remain through the early evening while LFT and ARA are expected to see ceilings improve to MVFR over the same time frame. Light northeasterly winds this morning will gradually turn southeast this afternoon lifting a weak warm front north from the gulf. The increasing low level moisture will support IFR ceilings redeveloping overnight tonight. Model consensus indicating high probabilities of fog formation beginning as early as 4Z through Sunday morning. LIFR visibilities and ceilings will be possible at all terminals early Sunday morning. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Offshore flow should again exacerbate low tide cycles today and low water conditions are expected on Sabine and Calcasieu Bays during daytime hours. Thus, a Low Water Advisory has been issued until 6 PM today. Showery rainfall can be expected until late Sunday/early Monday when a sharp cold front moves through. Very strong offshore winds will quickly develop Monday morning and a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 High pressure moves off to the east today allowing return flow to resume late in the day. This will bring about much warmer and more humid conditions today and Sunday before a sharp cold front moves through late Sunday/Monday. Early next week dry air will reduce the chance of rain to zero with gusty north winds and minimum RH values in the 40 to 50 percent range through the midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 45 67 38 / 0 0 30 10 LCH 63 52 74 43 / 20 10 30 10 LFT 61 51 73 44 / 30 10 40 20 BPT 65 53 74 42 / 10 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...66