273
FXUS64 KLCH 151728
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances decrease slightly into the midweek
  ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain possible
  through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Warm, wet, and muggy is the story starting off the new week today.
A rather stagnant pattern across the NW Gulf consisting of a
quasi-stationary upper level trough will remain within close
proximity of the forecast area facilitating scattered daily
rainfall chances.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters will extend
broadly into the central Gulf while abutting the troughing that
accompanies the eastern trades over the tropics in the NW
Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, thermal troughing over central Mexico
will help moisture advection veer inland over the Southern
Plains. Currently there is only a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall across the forecast area through tonight, however, given
the above normal precipitation that has fallen, risk of isolated
instances of flash flooding remain possible throughout the early week
ahead, particularly within urban locations that have slow or poor
drainage. Highs will trend around 90F north of the immediate
coastline. The only relief will likely to come from passing
thundershowers or cirrus blow from those in nearby proximity.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

As we turn the page to look at the remainder of the week, upper
level troughing begins to modify and fill as passing shortwave
embedded within the northern steam meandering over the Midwest
absorbs the remnant pressure falls. Model guidance suggests 850mb
subsidence to increase locally behind the upstream shortwave,
which expected over the eastern Great Lakes region by Thursday.
This pattern has been associated with a consistent signal for
diurnal highs to increase a few degrees- hedging further into the
lower 90`s by the end of the week. While isolated shower / storm
activity remains possible, increasing mid-upper level subsidence
will be a limiting factor into the following weekend.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Popup showers and thunderstorms are once again impacting multiple
terminals across the region. Near convection conditions can
quickly drop down into IFR/LIFR with areas outside convection
conditions are VFR with a scattered field of cumulus at FL030. A
line of thunderstorms will impact AEX in the next two hours with
VIS and CIGs dropping to IFR conditions.

After sunset conditions will rapidly improve with VFR conditions
at all terminals. Once again we expect fog to form at AEX with
MVFR conditions.

Monday morning and afternoon will see a repeat of scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several
days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady
for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts
from showers and thunderstorms, primary during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  91  73  91 /  30  70  10  50
LCH  76  89  77  89 /  30  60  10  60
LFT  74  89  75  89 /  30  80  10  80
BPT  75  89  76  88 /  30  60  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14