296
FXUS64 KLIX 041129
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A weak tropical wave in the central Gulf will continue to slowly
  approach the LA coast by Friday. This is leading to strong winds
  and will drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area Friday
  through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue
  through Friday leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor
  coastal flooding. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of
  the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for
  all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through Friday.

- Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widepsread light
  to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday through
  the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12
  corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Front, although becoming weakly defined now is in the Gulf with
much drier air slowly infiltrating from the northeast leading to a
wide range in the PWs over the area. PW values according to
GOES19 TPW product are around 1.3" in our northeast while 2" PWs
sit over the Atchafalaya basin. Winds have already increased over
the coastal waters and that is driving the water inland with
Waveland and Shell Beach topping out around 2` and 2.3` MHHW
respectively. This was a little higher than what was expected
yesterday and the tide forecast today is expected to be higher
this afternoon possibly by half a foot. We will also see other
sights start to feel some minor impacts from the tides.

The main forecast problem today and into the weekend is the tropical
wave over the central Gulf and the impacts that it is expected to
bring into the area, mainly Friday and Saturday. That said we are
not anticipating significant impacts but there will be impacts
mainly for the marine and coastal communities. Locally heavy rain
will also be watched closely. As for today it should be quite a
bit drier than what we have seen the last few days however, that
doesn`t necessarily mean we will remain dry. Still expect showers
out there today but most of the activity will likely remain
confined to the coast and across much of the River Parishes.
Biggest impacts today will be the marine hazards covered in the
the Marine discussion below and the tidal concerns. Already
mentioned a little about the tides today but to reemphasize we may
see a little more widespread minor impacts today with Port
Fourchon possibly seeing some minor coastal flooding. Generally
strong easterly flow isn`t the optimal direction to get coastal
flooding west of the mouth of the MS river but what is likely
occurring is the water as a whole is being nudged north and that
could lead to tides around 1` MHHW which is right at the level
where we begin to see minor impacts and not just the typical
tidal fluctuation impacts. Because of that all of the coastal
sections with the exception of the tidal lakes are in the coastal
Flood Advisory. This includes areas around Lake Salvador. We will
need to watch those closely because the water has definitely
started to enter Lake Pontchartrain now and the Bayou Gauche gage
just norhwest of Salvador has increased quickly (this is relative
though as quickly just meant 4 tenths since midday yesterday to 7Z).

Heading into Friday conditions will likely begin to go downhill as
the tropical wave approaches the coast. Not expecting this wave to
intensify so no further tightening of the pressure gradient is
anticipated thus winds over the region will likely be about the same
as the are today, 10-15 mph inland and 14-18 mph along the immediate
coast with gusts probably around 20 to 25 mph across much of the
area. Biggest change would be winds will start to veer and likely be
out of the southeast and east-southeast. This will also lead to rich
tropical moisture surging into the area, especially for areas east
of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridor. With that
anticipating much greater coverage of rain tomorrow and a decent
chance of rain lasting from late morning into the evening hours for
some areas. So with that one would think that flooding should be a
problem, well yes but it doesn`t seem like it will be a major impact
at this time. Yes we will have abundant rich moisture but with the
lack of adequate instability we are likely looking at a more showery
setup. What about warm rain processes, eh that doesn`t really
look that likely either with h5 temps ranging from -5 to -6C so
that doesn`t seem to be a concern. We will also be dealing with a
ridge centered just off to our east (subsidence). The areas that
may have the best chance of seeing locally heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding is the one area that currently has much drier air
so, that will need to recover quickly and saturate. I hate to say
it but that area looks like coastal MS and perhaps just west
across the Pearl River and even portions of the Southshore.
Coastal MS may have the best LL convergence as the LL winds will
be strongest on the east side of the wave which will be just east
of the MS Delta. We may also have favorable upper level diffluence
just above that region as well however, with very mild
instability to work with, Showalters of 0 to maybe -1C, ML CAPE
around 500 J/kg or lower, and mid lvl lapse rates around 5.5
isolated embedded thunderstorms may be the best we see in that
area. So a wet dreary day for much of the area especially the
Southshore and all coastal locations with a slightly better focus
over coastal MS but probably not the quick intense rainfall rates
we saw a week ago.

Rain starts to taper off in the evening and generally with a
tropical like system there is the possibility of convection
consolidating but refiring overnight the more hybrid nature of this
system doesn`t quite suggest a nocturnal maximum with convection
but we will see the activity pick up once again with numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms storms early Saturday and through
much of the day. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Upper ridging on Sunday evening will extend from the eastern Gulf
northward along Interstate 65 to Lake Michigan. Troughing will be
over New England and the northern Plains States. The northern Plains
trough will shift the northern portion of the ridge eastward to the
Appalachians by Tuesday evening, where it will weaken by Wednesday
evening. The upper ridge will recenter itself over Missouri or
Illinois by Wednesday evening. This will place the local area back
into easterly flow by midweek next week.

The airmass will still be rather moist on Sunday with precipitable
water values near or above 2 inches, above the 90th percentile.
Forecast soundings do indicate some drying for Monday and especially
Tuesday, which looks to be the driest day (or at least the least
threat of heavy rain), if we have one. If nothing else, there should
be at least fewer showers and storms Monday through Wednesday as
compared to the upcoming weekend. Moisture does start to ramp back
up on Wednesday for a couple of days, with a bit of an increase in
areal coverage of convection.

The lower chances for rain early next week should mean high
temperatures a few degrees warmer than over the weekend, with high
temperatures topping out around 90 or so from Monday onward. We
won`t see appreciably lower dewpoints, so overnight lows are
likely to remain in the 70s across most areas. /RW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

All terminals are in VFR status and low cigs haven`t quite
developed. Most terminals will likely remain rain free most of
the day but the southwestern half of the cwa will see light -SHRA
at times this afternoon. Given the lack of confidence in coverage
today only going to indicate PROB30`s for some terminals while
removing the mention of -SHRA. Other issue to bring up is LLWS
through this morning. Only indicating that at MCB, HDC, ASD, and
GPT while all other terminals. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Front, although weakly defined, is in the Gulf while the weak
tropical wave is moving into the central Gulf. A tight pressure
gradient in place between the wave and high pressure over the
southeastern US is leading to strong easterly winds with solidly
sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots over all of the coastal waters.
Gusts above 30 knots are occurring. Seas are still climbing with the
outer waters already around 7 feet. These hazardous conditions will
continue through Friday before finally seeing winds start to veer
around to more southeasterly and then southerly this weekend as that
tropical wave moves towards the Louisiana coast Friday and inland on
Saturday. Going into this weekend some improvement takes place, but
winds and seas will remain moderate. We will see an increase in
storms Friday and Saturday, especially east of the Mississippi River
Delta and that will lead to locally higher winds and seas. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078-
     091.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531>536-
     541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531>536-541-
     543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB