848
FXUS64 KLIX 040623
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
123 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Next potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall
  will be with a frontal passage Wednesday night.

- Additional rounds of rain, occasionally heavy, are expected
  Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Highs will climb to around 80F today and continue into the mid 80s
by Tuesday. Nights will remain cool in the 50s tonight but warming
into the upper 60s with southerly flow Tuesday night. No
complaints with this kind of weather but the muggies will be
coming back rather quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The extended portion of the forecast could get quite
interesting. First the possible system that will provide some
potential for severe weather will be overnight Wednesday but the
severe aspect should be done before sunrise however the cold front
associated with it is where models get hazy, murky, or is it wishy-
washy :). This makes the forecast a little uncertain for Thursday
and Friday and even into the weekend. The mid lvl pattern that the
models are advertising is in fairly good agreement for Thursday
through the weekend but it is how things play out Wednesday and
Wednesday night that will have the biggest impact on the forecast
for the extended. And right now that is how the front is handled.
13z NBM only had 30-40 PoPs for Thursday afternoon through Friday
and that was way to low given what we are currently looking at.
Coordinated with WPC to bump PoPs up for at least Thursday afternoon
through midday Friday but that will depend on the latest NBM which
doesn`t come in till after 2z.

So what does the end of the work week and into the weekend look
like? Trends suggest that maybe we will see something a little
similar to what we saw this past Thursday and Friday. First off as
mentioned the previous night that s/w dropping out of Canada seems
to be a real player with how the mid lvl pattern actually sets up
and impacts us with regards to the severe potential Wednesday
night. The trend with that was a little farther west dropping more
south along the Rockies and thus slowing the front down some and
leading to a little more of a sw to wsw flow regime. What does this
mean with regard to Thursday, well that front may not have as much
of a push to the south and there is now indications that it could
stall along or near the coast, this mornings ECMWF actually has it
draped ssw to nne across the CWA. This is practically parallel with
the mid lvl flow and that would once again foretell a favorable
pattern for moderate to even heavy rain with the prime time frame
possibly being overnight Thursday night.

If the front does stall over the area this is what it will have to
work with. Moderate to strong mid lvl flow of 55 to 70 kts midday
Thursday through Friday morning directly over and parallel to the
stalled/meandering front. Moisture will be still be in place with
PWs likely around 2" which is around record values for this time of
the year. We will be under the RRQ of a 125-145kt jet. We will be
under unidirectional flow from at least h85 through the column
suggesting training/backbuilding of storms. With that the 30-40 PoPs
that were in the forecast will need to be bumped up and possibly a
lot. With all of that it would not be surprising if the new ERO`s
form WPC highlight the area for excessive rain in the new day 4 and
5.

There should finally be enough of a push to move the front through
late Friday/Friday night with slightly drier air sliding in. The
front likely onw`t move through cleanly or very strongly so don`t
expect the same nice days we had yesterday and Saturday this coming
weekend. However, the deeper moisture will finally get shoved out of
the area with much weaker mid lvl flow back in place and northwest
flow across the Mid and Upper MS Valley likely leading to at least a
less eventful weekend.

Now the caveat, if the severe weather threat is a much more
impactful event for our area and that helps to drive the cold front
well into the Gulf then the heavy rain potential for Thursday and
Friday will not occur. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR through this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

High pressure will continue to settle over the waters today
resulting in light winds and calm seas. As the high pulls to the
east on Tuesday, winds will turn southerly and increase to 10 to 15
knots. Further increases to 15 to 20 knots or exercise caution
conditions will occur on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes
to the north of the area.  A weak front will slip into the waters
and stall over the region on Thursday leading to more variable winds
of 10 to 15 knots.  By Friday, the weak front will dissipate and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will return.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE