706
FXUS64 KLIX 302008
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
308 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over
  open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines to be posted in
  addition this will help to create minor coastal flooding along
  sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during
  high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood
  advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor
  coastal flooding.

- Rain returns to the area Saturday with the best chance of rain
  likely Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday possibly
  impacting some Halloween Trick-or-Treating or parties.

- Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesdays next
  week. Rain will begin during the day impacting election day
  while strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night
  through early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main concern for this weekend is your Trick-or-Treating forecast.
As we have been mentioning all week it doesn`t look like a
complete washout but after 3 weeks of dry weather rain decides to
return on Halloween day, yeah not cool. That said the forecast
for this weekend and especially tomorrow afternoon through midday
Sunday is not extremely clear. There is no real focus or low level
feature/front to grab and there will be multiple weak mid lvl
disturbance moving through the southwest flow aloft. First more
noticeable s/w is currently moving north over southern TX and
along the lower TX coast. This disturbance or atleast a piece of
it will move through the Lower MS Valley tonight and will help to
prime the airmass by greatly aiding in moisture recovery however
not much outside of a few very light showers are expected with
this.

The more likely time for rain will be when what looks like the
leading peace of energy associated with the nose of the mid lvl
jet quickly races east-northeast across the border of
AZ/NM/Mexico and into northern TX by midday tomorrow. This
disturbance then moves east into the Lower MS Valley tomorrow
afternoon and evening increasing the lift over the area. That will
combine with PWs that may actually approach 2" and this should
have little problem getting showers to start developing across the
region. There isn`t a great deal of instability but there will be
some so expected some embedded thunderstorms with the activity
tomorrow evening and night. Most likely locations for storms will
be over the Gulf where the better instability will reside however
adequate forcing and at least some mid lvl instability will allow
for a few thunderstorms inland.

As mentioned earlier there is no real feature in the low level or
boundary layer do this may be more of a just a dreary afternoon
and night with numerous light showers and isolated to scattered
moderate heavy showers/storms. Overall most of the region likely
see half and inch or less but there is one area that could see
maybe as much as 2 inches of rain and that could be coastal MS and
perhaps backtracking to the northwest east of McComb. Even though
this is not a very dynamic system there is a potential for storms
to line up or even back build from northwest to southeast
overnight and through Sunday morning. From around Tyler town
southeast towards the central/eastern MS coast there will be a
time frame where there is some decent LL confluence. At the same
time the jet will dive southeast into the Gulf placing the
northeastern half of the CWA under the LFQ with very strong upper
level Diffluence. The combination of these two features overnight
and early Wednesday could combine with just enough instability
over coastal MS and to the northwest that a few more efficient
thunderstorms could develop leading to slightly more rainfall in
those areas. Given this setup and that much moisture available it
would not be a complete shock to see one or two locations receive
a could inches of rain if not slightly more. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The extended portion of the forecast is a little more concerning.
Models continue to come in fairly decent agreement with a very
sharp trough swinging through the MS Valley region Tuesday night
and early Wednesday. Models a few days ago were in disagreement by
as much as 24-36 hours but trended much closer in time frame
yesterday and remain that way today. With decent agreement in the
operational models and their associated ensemble means and given
that this system is still back in the Pacific and 5 days out we
will stick close to the latest NBM.

As for our system Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging that quickly
built back in behind this weekends system will quickly be ushered
out Monday night and early Tuesday. This system will move onshore
over the Pacific coast Sunday while a strong subtropical jet
coming across the Baja will merge into the base of it over New
Mexico early Monday. This will sharpen the trough as it moves
into and across the Plains Monday night and early Tuesday. This
will also lead to Lee-side cyclogenesis likely around eastern CO
with this sfc low deepening as it lift to the northeast/east-
northeast towards the Upper MS Valley by Tuesday afternoon. A cold
front will extend south all the way into TX and will be on
knocking on the door of the Lower MS Valley by late
afternoon/early evening. As we move into the evening and overnight
hours the trough will continue to sharpen up as the axis starts to
swing through the central CONUS/MS Valley possibly taking on a
negative tilt overnight as it moves through the Lower MS Valley.
This will provide very strong forcing across the region easily
producing showers and thunderstorms along and likely ahead of the
front.

As said early this system is still in the Pacific so expect some
refinement and changes as it starts to move into the upper air
network maybe as early as Sunday morning and with that we won`t
get into all of the details however this is looking like a potent
system with the potential to bring strong to severe storms across
the area. A neutral to possibly negative tilt trough will
traverse the area. winds will respond at all levels with a LL jet
possibly developing along and maybe just ahead of the front
overnight. Mid lvl flow of 40 to 50 kt out sw/ssw while at the
same time we may move under a coupled jet structure from aloft.
All of this just continues to hammer the impressive amount of
forcing and lift we will have. So the question could be
instability. We don`t get completely cleaned out by out system
this weekend but we will see drier air move in at all levels of
the atmosphere. PW`s may drop to 1.25" or lower but dewpoints
could drop down into the lower 60s and we don`t really begin to
see any type of recovery kick in till late Monday possibly even
overnight. Even with the rather dynamic system, with the sfc low
so far to our north the response in the boundary layer is more
muted than all other areas and thus the recovery period will be
slower. In addition there are some indications that we could see
some decent coverage of isentropic lift/WAA showers through much
of the day. This would hurt daytime heating and thus keep the
overall instability down some.

The possibility of some decent rain coverage during the day and
lower instability is the main thing that is keeping this system
from really becoming a big concerns for our area from a severe
weather standpoint. However, this is a very dynamic system with a
lot of forcing and that can and has many times in the past helped
to overcome any lack of instability. With that we will need to
watch this system closely as the main time frame at this point
appears to be the evening and overnight hours which is always a
bad time for severe weather. In addition rain and possible
thunderstorms during the day Tuesday could impact polling sites on
Election Day. /CAB/







&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Overall terminals should remain in VFR through this evening. Can`t
completely rule out a momentary MVFR cig due to some cu but
nothing of any real impact. Clouds and rain may become a greater
concern tomorrow before 18z and will likely begin to impact
a few terminals after 18z Saturday. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad
surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds
will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes,
sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However,
the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20
knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet.
Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the
open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some
minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for
east facing shores starting through the weekend. There will be
some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and
Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no
significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the
weak thunderstorms that do develop. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ086-
     087.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB