Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
989 FXUS64 KLIX 082341 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Wow what a nice start to the new week! Temperatures early this morning ranged from a few (lucky) spots briefly touching the upper 50`s to many in the low to mid 60`s, with low 70`s over the Southshore/SE LA. Climatology/records show this not to be record- breaking by all means, but a good bit below normal for many. Taking a step back with a brief overview glancing at GOES-16 Total PW illustrates the nose of deepest/driest continental air has pressed into the region, with the front draped into the northern Gulf. 12Z KLIX RAOB illustrates the shallow depth of the driest air near the surface, with recent HRRR soundings mixing the PBL out nicely going through the rest of the afternoon. Did make adjustments to the next 6-8hrs (17-01Z) afternoon dewpoints to blend in 25th to 10th percentile to account for the NBM`s common weak point in deterministic guidance, matching ongoing trends well so far which brings MinRH`s into the low 30`s areawide. Very comfortable feel to the air! Next feature to monitor, looking at GOES-16 VIS is a pretty evident surface low spinning over the northeast Gulf. Currently, encountering sufficient westerly shear and dry air into the circulation which, fortunately, is not a concern for tropical development given these reasons, but will slowly drift west bringing a lobe of moisture with it. 09/15Z RAP guidance catches this well advancing into far eastern areas tonight, spreading west early Tuesday. CAMs identify enough associated moisture and lift to surge a few scattered showers/storms (squalls) west Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. However, these will be battling the dry continental airmass in place as they progress west. Not overly confident on coverage at this point, with NBM coming in generally in the 20-40% range (50-60% coastal) which is plausible given the aforementioned meteorological reasonings and short-range trends. Overall, best chances for a passing shower or storm will be across coastal SE LA and MS, and any advancement westward/inland could struggle as dry air eventually winds over dissipating activity. Will keep an eye on it. No additional adjustments to temperatures or major impacts anticipated in the short-term. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Going into mid/late week, quiet! High pressure begins to win over the eastern/southeastern US keeping to keep conditions calm and quiet. Few extra shots of dry continental air will continue to keep it comfortable following afternoon mixing. Highs in the low to mid 90`s but afternoon dewpoints in the 50`s to 60`s will prevent any excessive heat concerns. KLG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 VFR conditions through the overnight hours with prevailing winds pivoting from northerly to easterly through the period. Introduction of PROB30 TSRA lines begins from east to west with a band of squall showers and storms approaching from the Gulf waters on Tuesday morning. GPT, ASD, MSY, NEW could see SHRA/TSRA impacts as early 1200-1500Z. Additional TSRA lines are introduced for farther west sites of HDC and HUM become more likely with more diurnally-driven pop up storms off sea/lake breeze by early afternoon. Cannot rule out addition of TEMPO groups for BTR and MCB in future TAF packages if confidence increases of storm coverage, but drier air will prevail farther inland. Expect brief reductions in VIS/CIGs with any passing SHRA/TSRA, with VFR outside of this activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 This afternoon, winds continue to progressively lower across marine areas from what was observed overnight, however remain elevated in the 10-15kt range for outer Gulf zones. Given this trend and next 6hr wind forecast guidance, decided to keep SCS (Exercise Caution) headlines through 6PM for all waters expect Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas, where winds are already diminishing lower and will continue that way. Winds for all areas relax going into tonight. Next feature to monitor will be a weak wave over the NE Gulf, helping to send showers/storms west along progressive easterly flow setting up. Can`t rule out some gusty winds/squalls with these showers/storms early Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. Outside of this activity, could also briefly see SCS (caution) or SCY (advisory) conditions for far eastern waters. Otherwise, conditions will settle down mid to late week, turning dry with light to occasionally breezy winds and light waves/seas on the order of 1-2ft for protected waters, to 2-4ft for Gulf waters. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 87 67 89 / 0 20 0 0 BTR 64 90 70 91 / 0 20 0 10 ASD 65 87 68 89 / 0 40 10 10 MSY 73 89 75 91 / 0 40 10 10 GPT 70 87 70 89 / 10 40 10 10 PQL 68 88 68 89 / 10 40 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...TJS MARINE...KLG