Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
482 FXUS64 KLIX 300442 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry forecast through midweek with hot afternoons and comfortable low temperatures. - Rain and storm chances slowly increase at the back end of the workweek and into the weekend. - Winds and seas will increase late this week and weekend leading to Cautionary Headlines or Small Craft Advisories likely and minor coastal flooding possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Overall, the synoptic pattern is rather weak today with only slight upper level ridging over the CWFA. The area resides in a slight weakness between a developing ridge over the northern MS River Valley and a weak ridge over the western Gulf. That said, thicknesses and heights are elevated a bit, which will again prove to provide a source for strong surface warming. Like the last few days, strong surface heating will cause dewpoints to mix downward this afternoon, however, as we seen this afternoon behind the sea/lake breeze, the dewpoints rebounded right before sunset making it feel a bit more humid. That said, going into this afternoon and Wednesday there is just enough low level moisture associated with these mesoscale boundaries where a nonzero shower potential may be possible. For now left any mention of precip out because we need just enough moisture return to have at least a silent 10 out there. Wednesday looks to be a bit better with easterly or just slightly south of due easterly flow tries to develop help gradually increase low level moisture quality right along the immediate coast. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Going into the long term the synoptic pattern wakes up a bit, if you will. An upper level weakness extending westward cross the western Atlantic and into the north central Gulf will begin to close off into an upper level low by the start of the long term period. At the surface, a bit stronger easterly flow begins to develop over the region. From this point rain chances south of I10/12 start to rise little by little with some modest low level moisture doing what it can to move back into the region from the east. The upper level low parks itself over the southeast going into the upcoming weekend. At the surface a weak stalled frontal boundary will reside over the central Gulf Coast. Temperatures later this week will likely cool a bit to around average or perhaps just a skosh below? Lower to middle 80s will be possible. However, overnight lows no change - still around average. The cooler daytime highs can mostly be contributed to the upper level low (cold core...which will mean something in just a moment as we get further into the weekend). Additionally, the cloudiness and some rainfall will also do it`s part in keeping the region a bit cooler than we have seen earlier in the week and last weekend. Further, the GFS is trying to develop some surface feature over our waters. While simply looking at the pressure field it could seem a bit more intimidating. However, taking a look at H200 the region will be under a cold core upper level low meaning it likely will NOT be a tropical entity. Maybe a hybrid if anything even forms at all. The other globals have an inverted trough and residual troughing along the weak stalled front, however, at this juncture the GFS is the outlier. Even the ensembles aren`t exactly happy with the operational GFS runs as of late. Regardless, the feature is absorbed by the more dominate upper level low on Sunday. Needless to say, low confidence, but there certainly could be some rain and storms around. Again, as the cold core low sits up over our region there will be a need to pay attention to the updraft strength because the signal for small hail at least will be there. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 VFR VIS/CIG for all terminals through the forecast cycle. Winds will continue to remain light or generally less than 10 knots and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Generally offshore flow will continue across the local waters through midweek or so. Convection and rain chances will gradually increase from midweek through the end of the forecast period. Moderate easterly flow develops by Thursday and will likely continue and perhaps even further strengthen through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories for both winds and seas are looking increasingly likely by late this week and into the weekend. Additionally, expect a bit higher seas and winds in and around convection. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 67 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 92 74 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 90 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF