494
FXUS64 KLIX 280446
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1046 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Below normal temps expected through the remainder of the week.

- Another significant Arctic outbreak is increasingly likely late
  Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front will usher in another
  very cold airmass, with the primary threats being dangerous
  cold and renewed hazardous conditions across the coastal waters.

-  Small Craft Advisory to possibly Gale force winds look to be on
   the horizon the entire weekend, starting as early as Friday
   night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Broad upper-level troughing has generally encompassed most/all of
the CONUS for a week or so now. It`s expected to persist across much
of the country through the upcoming weekend which will maintain a
pattern supportive of periodic frontal passages across the Gulf
South. Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the base of the
parent trough, with the first affecting the region today. This
feature is weak and low-amplitude, and little sensible weather
impact is anticipated locally beyond maintaining dry pattern in
place.

As that feature continues east Thursday, gradual warming trend
resumes due to increasing 500mb heights. Keep in mind that `warm` is
a relative term...comparing to last weekend. Lows/Highs will still
be several degrees below normal even at its warming point.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Attention then turns to a much stronger system late in the week into
the upcoming weekend. Deterministic guidance from both the GFS and
ECMWF, along with strong ensemble support, continues to show a high-
confidence signal for a polar vortmax diving southward from Ontario
into the southeastern US. This trajectory favors direct southward
transport of a very cold continental polar airmass down to the
northern Gulf Coast region. Surface ridging originating from this
far north and remaining west of the CWA at its southern extent is
strongly correlated with significant cold analogs locally.

So how cold will it be? Initial thoughts are that temperatures will
be similar to possibly even colder than the recent cold spell. This
would likely include at least one day (Saturday) with highs
struggling to rise much above freezing, along with several nights of
subfreezing temperatures and potentially one or two nights with lows
in the upper teens to near 20 degrees. Some guidance is much colder
than that btw.  No threat for wintry precip as moisture appears
limited and the cold air arrives largely post-frontal.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light and
variable winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Substantial drop in winds occurred today as surface ridge settled in
across the northern Gulf Coast. A weak shortwave will slide through
early this morning which brings a reinforcing boundary into the Gulf
waters. It`ll likely too weak to support any headlines but will
maintain offshore flow. A short period of onshore flow could develop
Thursday as surface ridge from the weaker front slides east. Bigger
impacts return over the weekend as a potentially next arctic blast
marches through. Current guidance suggests at least Small Craft
Advisory conditions and maybe a period of Gales as well.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ056>060-064>068-
     077-087>090.

GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME