171
FXUS64 KLIX 160423
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

A weak upper level vorticity max and an associated pool of deeper
moisture will move through the Gulf South today, and this will
lead to higher PWATS of between 2 and 2.1 inches across the
forecast area. This deeper pool of moisture and the weak forcing
aloft associated with the vorticity max will support another day
of greater convective development across the area. Convection
should develop by the late morning hours along the seabreeze
boundary in coastal Louisiana and then spread northward before
reaching southwest Mississippi by the late afternoon and evening
hours. Given the more favorable conditions for shower and
thunderstorm activity today, the PoP forecast has been increased
slightly to a range of 50 to 70 percent. Storm motion will remain
at 5 knots or less, so there could be some localized street
flooding issues with the heaviest storms today. Due to the higher
rain chances, the temperature forecast has been lowered a few
degrees and this will keep heat index values near or just
slightly below advisory levels this afternoon. However, the heat
advisory is already active for tomorrow, and there could be window
where advisory criteria is briefly hit in the mid to late morning
hours before the thunderstorm activity gets going.

Sunday through Monday night will see a return to more average
PWATS in the 1.6 to 1.9 range as the vort lobe pulls to the west
and some drying aloft takes hold. Temperatures will also be near
average in the lower 90s each day and heat index values will
remain below advisory limits at around 105 degrees. Overall, a
very typical mid-August regime will be in play. Diurnally induced
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
seabreeze or pre-existing outflow boundaries each day before
quickly dissipating in the early evening hours with the loss of
daytime heating. PoP values will be near average in the 30 to 50
percent range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Tuesday will see little change from the pattern observed on Sunday
and Monday with normal August conditions expected. However,
another surge of moisture will feed into the area on Wednesday as
a broad ridge over the region shifts to the west and a weak trough
axis and associated surface boundary drift toward the region.
PWATS will quickly increase to between 2 and 2.2 inches once again
on Wednesday and remain at those levels through Saturday. The
pattern is also more supportive of a series of mesoscale
convective complexes forming over the Arklatex region and then
sweeping southward as a split flow pattern forms over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This is something we will need to monitor as
these convective complexes can produce stronger winds and very
heavy rainfall. These complexes may also lead to later convective
impacts as the storms initially form to the northwest of the
region and then sweep in through the evening hours. This concern
is reflected by having lingering chance PoP in the forecast
through the late evening hours. In fact, there may be the typical
initial convective activity that forms along the seabreeze front
in the late morning and early afternoon hours and then a secondary
round of thunderstorms that moves through in association with any
mesoscale convective systems that do form. Temperatures should be
near or slightly cooler than average from Wednesday onward due to
the increased convective activity expected. More refined details
on the evolution of this pattern will develop over the coming
days and forecast confidence in this overall pattern will also
increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

The primary concern for aviators will be scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms that could impact the terminals for time
to time mainly between 17z and 00z. Brief periods of gusty winds
to around 20 knots, lightning strikes, and downpours that could
reduce visibilities to MVFR range or lower can be expected with
any storms that pass over a terminal. PROB30 and TEMPO wording is
in place to reflect the convective risk at all of the terminals
between that 17z and 00z time period. Outside of the convective
threat, VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals
through the entire forecast period. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

The Summer doldrums will continue across the coastal waters
through the middle of next week. Light winds of 10 knots or less
and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will also develop in the early morning hours
each day across the offshore waters. The storms will then move
more inland and impact the tidal lakes in the afternoon hours. Any
of these storms could produce locally higher winds and waves. A
few could also produce some waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  73  92  74 /  50  10  50  20
BTR  90  75  93  77 /  60  10  60  30
ASD  92  75  92  76 /  40  10  60  20
MSY  89  79  91  80 /  50  10  60  30
GPT  93  77  90  77 /  40  10  60  20
PQL  91  76  90  76 /  30  10  60  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG