040
FXUS64 KLIX 281056
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
556 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Impactful heat conditions will persist through much of the week
  with the most intense heat today and Wednesday with heat
  indices 110-115 degrees.


- Rain chances will remain very low through Wednesday. Scattered
  thunderstorms should return Thursday through Saturday as the
  upper ridge weakens and a frontal boundary settles toward the
  northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A few storms will dot the map today and Wed, but for the most
part, the heat will be the main story. Heat index readings should
top out today and Wed in the 110 to 115 range. The trough that is
hanging up just east of the area will eventually lay to the gulf
coast farther west bringing at least coastal Miss into slightly
more unstable environment. But it will still take a lot of heating
to get storms to ignite which means it will be after the strongest
heating of the day. Chances for storms will rise a bit by Wed and
that should be focused near and east of Gulfport. The boundary to
our east should remain locked over coastal Miss and points north
of there into the end of the week keeping precip numbers a bit
higher in these areas. Some type of heat headlines will likely
remain for at least the western 2/3rds of the area into the end of
the week as well unless cloud cover can keep this from occurring.
A frontal boundary will then begin to approach late Friday to give
us our wx for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The wet pattern increases going into the weekend as a rather robust
H5 impulse moves south and east within the east coast trough. At the
surface the frontal boundary will remain over the region helping
provide a good amount of low level convergence and with the
increasing upper support expect numerous to even widespread
convection Saturday and especially into Sunday.
With the area being under a northerly or northwesterly flow a late
season convective complex may develop and slide through the region,
which could have some gusty winds in the strongest activity. Both
GFS and ECM are fairly similar in the overall synoptics and both
have high rain chances going right into Monday, especially during
the diurnal cycle. By this time on average most of the area would
likely have picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain, which means hydro
concerns will start to develop where locally high amounts fall
across the region.

By Monday night the upper level feature will begin to retrograde
into Texas from northern Mississippi allowing gradually for high
pressure to start nosing back into the forecast area. As for
temperatures, below average due to cloudiness and storm coverage.
We may get close to 90 or maybe into the lower 90s especially
Saturday, but this would be tough with an early convective
initiation time, at least in terms of an area wide average. The good
news is heat headlines are unlikely going into the upcoming weekend.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

High pressure over the southeast gulf will keep a predominantly
westerly to SW flow regime through the remainder of the week. There
will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters
where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during
the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ057-058-064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>085.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE