531
FXUS64 KLIX 301652
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1152 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will
  continue this weekend as water continues to drain from recent
  heavy rainfall.

- Drier pattern through this weekend with increased rain chances
  returning middle of next week.

- Summertime temps coming with highs around 90 degrees and heat
  indicies near 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Two broad upper level lows are situated over the country, one near
main and another near the intersection of Colorado, Wyoming and
Utah. Both are quite expansive both also far away from the CWA. More
locally, remnant shortwave that was aloft recently has dissipated
and the flat ridge near the Bay of Campeche will be able to expand
north across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Increased
subsidence and expanding 500mb heights will limit convection and
moderate temps through the afternoon. Should be topping out over the
next few hours with highs around 90. Isolated to scattered storms
could develop this afternoon with greatest probs in coastal counties
as they`re closer to the periphery of the ridge. The depth of warmth
is quite evident in model soundings this afternoon. This results in
less CAPE than what`d likely be needed for SVR hail. However,
inverted-V low level profile suggests at least some potential for
gusty winds and with DCAPE closing in on 1000j/kg, a marginally SVR
storm not out of the question. Sunday will basically mirror today,
but possibly with slight uptick in high temps and heat indicies.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Should really be feeling like the start of summer end of this
weekend and into the start of next week. Monday, the upper high
pressure system mentioned above will expand northward into the
Central Plains. Resultant 500mb heights over the CWA will solidify
low 90 degree highs for all but coastal areas. At the same time,the
actual trough axis will actually be shifted more westward over TX vs
directly over LA. That`ll mean less convective stunting subsidence.
Scattered storms (around 40% coverage) mainly initiating along sea
breeze boundary convergence. Midweek onward is a little more
uncertain than previous forecasts. Deep upper low situated east of
the CWA today looks to still be there middle of next week. Global
models suggest it will drift southward as the week progresses. How
far south it goes definitely will play into how much dry air it
pushes into the CWA. That puts range of POP forecasts from minimal
to numerous.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A much drier and more stable area of high pressure will continue to
build over the area today. This will keep prevailing VFR conditions
in place through the evening hours. There will be some isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity that develops this afternoon, but
the probabilities are too low to mention in the forecast. During the
overnight forecast period, weak boundary layer decoupling could
allow for some light fog development at MCB after 09z. Obs from last
night showed VIS only touching 6sm, so probably similar tonight.
Persistence going into Sunday with SKC after sunrise with MVFR CU
field mid morning that`ll lift to VFR as temps warm.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the northern Gulf will
keep a persistent light onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots in place
through Tuesday.  These light winds will allow seas to remain calm
at 2 feet or less through Sunday.  A weak backdoor cold front will
stall as it slides into the northern Gulf Monday into Tuesday. This
will weaken the pressure field and lead to light and variable winds
that period. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will turn back to the
southeast as a broad area of low pressure begins to form over the
central Gulf.  This low will continue to move toward the area on
Thursday and winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots from the
southeast as the low strengthens.  Seas will also increase to 2 to 4
feet as these winds develop.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME