Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
035 FXUS64 KLIX 131052 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 552 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 - Not much day to day change in temperatures for the rest of the workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Upper trough now well to the east over Georgia and Florida, with a trailing shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. A strong upper ridge was over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was over the eastern Gulf to the south of Panama City. High pressure extended from the Carolinas to east Texas. There were some scattered clouds around at midnight CDT, with temperatures ranging from 65 at McComb to 75 at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans. High pressure will slide slowly eastward across the area over the next 48 hours. The only sensible weather concern would be the potential for fog development around sunrise. Drier air has been a bit slower to arrive than originally expected, but it is in northwest portions of our CWA. If there`s a most favored area for fog development, it will be over southwest Mississippi, but not confident enough to post advisories at this point of the night. Mostly sunny skies across the area both today and Thursday, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Morning lows Thursday morning will be a bit lower than this morning, as drier air will finally be in place. Friday morning lows should be a degree or two warmer than Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Generally dry and warmer weather will continue through the weekend with highs sticking around the mid to upper 80s. Mostly zonal flow will hold over the southern CONUS through the weekend. Some weak ridging will start to build early next week. There is some disagreement in the global models into the start of the new week. The GFS/GEFS seems to be backing off with any significant POP chances, while the ECMWF bringing some light POP chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Cloud cover has been rather variable overnight, but fog has not developed. There have been a couple of different cloud decks affecting terminals. One has been above FL040, while the other has been considerably lower, as low as FL007 at KHDC in the last hour. Will carry MVFR to IFR ceilings where appropriate for the first couple hours of the forecast until a combination of dry air and sunshine either raises cloud bases to above FL030 or mixes out the clouds entirely. By mid-day, clouds should be mostly gone, with VFR conditions beyond that point for the remainder of the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Winds will remain offshore into Thursday night, until the surface high to the north of Mississippi and Louisiana gets far enough east to allow winds to return to an onshore component. For Friday through the weekend, winds will be southeasterly, generally between 10 and 15 knots. The threat for thunderstorms may again return to the waters by the end of the weekend. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW