Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
829 FXUS64 KLIX 170503 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1203 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - A drier pattern is expected into next week. The primary concern will be increasing heat. Heat indices will approach advisory criteria today but should surpass criteria for at least some areas Saturday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Not much in the way of rain chances over the next few days. The soonest that any chance of rain moves in will be Saturday evening. This will be due to the deep moisture beginning to slooooowwwwly move west as the synoptic SW high eases ridging into our area into the next week. Sat evening rain chances are only around 10% at the moment but this may move up to around 20-30% over the next few model runs. Either way, chances will not be robust. But the heat will be. Any chance of a cooling storm will be best east of I55 late Sat afternoon. The progression of deep moisture will not move farther than I55 through Monday and chances of rain will remain about the same through Monday. As far as heat advisories, we will be at or very close to criteria today, but most likely will surpass Sat into the new week. No advisory will be issued with this package, but this could change if new guidance comes in hot. Broad troughing over the SE CONUS and adjacent marine areas will remain in place through at least the short term of this fcast. A disturbed area of sh/ts will also begin to develop and pulse over the NE gulf for the next several days. The TUTT low that is currently moving over the FL Keys will slowly move north over affecting the area of storms in the NE gulf causing quite a bit of upper level shear at least through the weekend. The TUTT low moves near the Jacksonville area by Sunday leaving behind a more relaxed shear profile by the start of the work week. The stacked high to our west and the Bermuda High to the east will provide a channel for this to eventually move north or NE. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Lingering mid-level troughing over the northeast Gulf will begin to lift out as we start next week. This will allow the eastern flank of an expanding ridge over the southern central CONUS to slide overhead and continue to favor above normal temperatures during the work week. Heat indices could approach 110 degrees some days and consecutive days of this level of heat could increase the risk for heat-related illness. There are some discrepancies in the model guidance on whether troughiness lingers over the eastern Gulf and attempts to slide under the periphery of the central CONUS ridge. This, in addition to another trough (depending on its depth) diving around the northern ridge periphery into the Great Lakes, could help to erode the eastern flank of the ridge and ease off the worst of the heat threat as we get into mid-late week. This would also reduce the capping inversion stifling afternoon shower and storm development and allow for a bit more typical summertime lake and seabreeze convection which is reflected by NBM guidance in PoPs increasing toward climatology Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 As high pressure slowly moves west, winds will begin to fluctuate from north through west and speeds will remain around 10 knots through the middle of next week. The number of thunderstorms will be very limited through Saturday, but any that do develop will cause wind direction and speed to become erratic and strong. Thunderstorm numbers may increase into next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE