140
FXUS64 KLIX 280525
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1225 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early
  next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns today behind a cold front. A Red
  Flag Warning is now in effect for today.

- Hazardous boating conditions for small craft due to strong north
  winds and rough seas today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
  effect for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A fast moving cold front will be through the area by daybreak
bringing dry air and some cooler temps. Highs will drop back by 10
degrees for highs only reaching the mid 70s. This won`t last long
though as a quick moving surge of moisture will move over the
area from the east starting before midnight tonight. This will
also be capable of touching off a few showers and maybe aven a
storm or two mainly near the coast and offshore. Once this moves
through, we should see a diurnal drive to the sh/ts for the next
few days starting Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Upper ridging over the Florida Straits on Monday will take up
residence over the Bahamas for much of next week. This will place
the local area in zonal or perhaps even southwesterly upper flow for
the workweek next week. We`ll essentially get into a Bermuda high
pattern, which is more of a late spring or summer pattern. This will
produce a southerly or southeasterly low level wind flow, bringing a
moist airmass to the area, likely for the entire workweek.
Precipitable water values will be around the 75th percentile (1.25
inches) for much of the area Monday through Wednesday before
creeping up to about the 90th percentile for the end of the week.

While we don`t expect a frontal passage across the local area during
the week next week, there`s likely to be one close enough to bring
at least a daily chance of showers and/or thunderstorms to the area
during the afternoon hours each day. Timing of individual impulses
that far out is going to be problematic at best, so not a strong
target of opportunity regarding precipitation chances. No real
indications of severe weather or organized heavy rainfall at this
point.

Much above normal temperatures expected for the entire workweek,
with overnight lows generally in the 60s and highs upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR through this taf cycle. There will be some cigs moving through
this morning but should be no lower than 4kft. But even these will
dissipate after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front will sweep through the waters starting
around daylight today. In the wake of this front, northerly winds
will increase to 20 to 25 knots and seas will rise to 5 to 7 feet in
the open Gulf waters. Given the strong winds and rough seas expected
in all of the waters, a small craft advisory is in effect this
morning into tomorrow. Sunday will see continued rough conditions
for boaters as winds turn easterly, but remain near 20 knots through
the day. The winds will finally begin to ease on Monday as high
pressure strengthens over the area with southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots expected. These winds will continue through the middle of next
week. Seas will also improve to 3 to 5 feet as winds decrease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Red flag warnings remain in effect for portions of the area
generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for today. This is
due to a period of critical fire conditions that is expected  in the
wake of a passing strong cold front with very little to no rain.
Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 25 percent on today
and winds will be between 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to
30 mph through the afternoon hours.  Conditions will quickly begin
to improve on Sunday as winds turn southerly at around 10 mph and
humidity increases. Minimum RH values will climb to between 40 and
50 percent Sunday afternoon and then further rise to between 50 and
60 percent each day next week. There will also be increased
scattered shower activity that will bring some wetting rains to the
area each day starting Monday. Fog is not expected to be a concern
the next couple of nights, but may return as we move into next week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-
     077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE