138
FXUS64 KLIX 211048
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
548 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Hot conditions will persist through much of the week, with highs
  near records thru mid week and generally above normal thru the
  weekend.

- Rain chances will be highest today into Tuesday, but rain
  amounts will generally be less than one half inch this week as
  not much rain is expected for the remainder of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20
2026

The synoptic picture is quite easy to see with a upper low and
trough over the Pacific coast. Another upper low over the northern
Rockies and yet another centered over Florida(more of a TUTT
feature). The upper highs are also extensive with a continental
non-stacked high over northern Mexico. And the second upper
maritime high over the Bahamas extending into the Caribbean.
Today we will see the upper trough currently extending from
southern TX NE to near the Great Lakes move east and will
eventually be located over our region later today. This will
definitely help weaken cap strength today and this is the reason
for higher precip numbers than we have seen lately. We then fall
under a N to NW flow regime by Tue which is not reflected in the
mid level flow, so we should move back to more normalized
ditribution levels of sh/ts. By late Tue into early Wed, we
should begin to see a cold front moving south through Arkansas and
northern Miss which will be visiting the gulf coast states by Wed
night. The high behind this front is quite aggressive which is
not totally abnormal for this time of year but is a bit early. The
high looks to bridge the front along its direction of movement
axis, which is over our area. This would effectively take precip
numbers to 10% or less for Wed, even as the front passes late Wed
night which would mainly be seen by dew pt gradients. Again, this
type of pattern is very Octoberish, but does start some years by
the end of September and leads to some of the driest weather we
get during the entire year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Heading into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be nearly centered
over our area. This in turn keeps PoPs low, which is shown with no
PoPs over 10% for any area onshore through Saturday. The outer
waters may see some isolated convection, but nothing substantial. A
deepening trough off the east coast and surface high pressure over
the TN valley will begin to break the ridge down late Friday. This
also introduces northeasterly flow in the lower levels, which brings
in a little bit of drier air. This is shown in the afternoon dew
points falling into the mid to upper 60s for many on Friday and
Saturday. While the beginning of the long term period will see the
continuation of above average high temperatures, heading into the
weekend many areas fall a couple degrees into the upper 80s. We also
see a downtrend in the morning lows, which drop into the mid to
upper 60s for many especially northern areas. With this being pretty
late into the forecast, some uncertainty remains and we will have to
watch the trends of the upper level pattern over the east coast.

HRL

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Not all terminals will be impacted by TSRA today, but there will
be more storms around which will cause tempo IFR conditions for
those that are impacted. All activity is expected to begin
weakening after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Broad surface high remains close to the northern Gulf Coast,
maintaining a weak pressure gradient and generally benign marine
conditions. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable nearshore,
becoming more consistently southerly during the afternoons. Storm
coverage will increase today and any thunderstorm could briefly
produce locally higher winds and seas along with frequent lightning.
A more persistent northeast to east flow should develop Wednesday
through the latter part of the week but remain 15 knots or less.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE