Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 170105
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
705 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The upper air release this evening was routine with no problems
encountered. The 00Z sounding continued to depict a very dry and
stable atmosphere. The profile was dry throughout and the
precipitable water value was 0.41 inch. Light and variable winds
prevailed in the lower levels of the atmosphere while moderate
west-southwest to west flow was observed throughout the mid and
upper levels. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A fairly quiet pattern is setting up over the forecast area for
the next few days. High pressure will shift east over the next few
days and this will allow for some moderation in the temperatures
this weekend. We will nicely rebound to near 70 for a high on
Sunday.  Not expecting much in the way of rainfall over the few
days. Model guidance suggests a weak cold front moving through the
area on Monday. This should not have an impact in the forecast as
the atmosphere is relatively dry. There may be a few showers
Monday as it pushes through, but the greater chance of rain looks
to come by mid to late next week. Models still indicate a system
moving through the region on Thanksgiving Day. The GFS is more
aggressive and more north with the track with a pretty decent
amount of rain. The ECMWF is takes the system more south and only
impacting areas south of Lake Pontchartrain. Have used a blend of
models in this timeframe due to the uncertainty. This will need
to be watched over the next several days. Otherwise the forecast
is dry, and temperatures will rebound back to a normal range for
the next week.

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions for all terminals through the forecast TAF
period. Some patchy areas of fog may be possible again early
tomorrow morning in and around KHUM, primarily between 06-14Z with
visibility ranging 3 to 5 miles at times. However, direct impacts
should be limited. Otherwise, no additional impactful or hazardous
weather is expected through tomorrow afternoon. KLG

MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the central Gulf coast
region through the weekend and into early next week. No hazardous
seas are expected in this time frame with waves 2 feet or less,
accompanied by winds 5 to 10 knots. Winds are expected to pick up by
Tuesday from the Northeast ahead of the next storm system due in by
the middle to later part of next week. Model guidance still is in
disagreement on specifics with this system. Regardless, a weak
disturbance may bring periods of rain, increased wind and higher
wave heights during the middle to later part of next week. KLG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River flood warnings along Pearl River at Bogalusa and
            Pearl River.
            River flood warning along Mississippi River at Red River
            Landing

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend

Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
         Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  40  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  67  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  64  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  39  67  44  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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