Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

959
FXUS64 KLIX 052202
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
402 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...Another quiet day across the region however there was
more cloud cover today as a deep plume of Pacific moisture has been
streaming across northern Gulf coast. Highs today appear to be
a few degrees above normal.

Two main forecast issues right now. The first appears to have little
to possibly no impacts on the region. A potent s/w just now leaving
the 4 corners will continue to work east-southeast tonight and
tomorrow moving through the Lower MS Valley and towards the
southeastern CONUS. Initially this looks like it could provide a
decent shot of convection, however all model solutions suggest that
this wave will significantly dampen out as it moves through the
region. The developing surface low will also begin to fill and drop
southeast quickly across the area and into the Gulf. Initially we
could see a few weak isentropic lift showers (seen around the 295K
level) across the coastal areas. Around late morning through the
afternoon light showers may become a little more numerous as the sfc
low and s/w drops through the region. That said rain chances
don`t look very good as hghts actually remain steady or slightly
rise. In addition the moisture gets shunted east rather quickly
with LL convergence remaining well behind and we are not in a very
favorable location in relationship to the jet. Will hold on to
chance PoPs, however anticipating most sites will only see a few
hundredths, a few could see a tenth or two.

Overall this weekend looks quiet. We will move under weak northwest
flow Friday night but that quickly flattens out Saturday. High
pressure will dominate the land areas through Sunday, but there will
be a weak area of low pressure south of the MS/AL coast allowing
winds to remain out of the northwest. LL temps will drop a little to
allow for slightly cooler to near normal highs but lows will still
be slightly above normal.

Next week is beginning to look more and more wet. Another system
will work through the Plains and into the Great Lakes Monday sending
a cold front into the Lower MS Valley. This front will eventually
stall and lay up southwest to northeast across the region. Where
this occurs will be a key player. Aloft we will move under southwest
flow Monday and the front will parallel the flow aloft and this could
set the stage for multiple rounds of rain beginning late Monday
and continuing into early Wednesday. A lot of questions come into
play by Tuesday night/Wednesday and whether or not the front
gets a clean push through or waits for the next system to finally
drive it into the Gulf. If the front hangs up then rain could
remain in the picture through Thursday morning. At this time not
anticipating very heavy rain however this pattern suggest the
potential for at least multiple bouts of moderate to locally heavy
rain possible. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through
the evening. Lowered CIGs will begin to develop between 6-12z over
much of the area and most locations should begin to experience MVFR
CIGs between 12-15z. Vsbys should not be an issue until shra begin
to move in and even with that not anticipating much below 4-5SM as
shra will be fairly light tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...Cold front moves through the tomorrow. Offshore flow will
develop behind it and slowly veer around to the northwest. With high
pressure dominating the land areas and weak low pressure south of
the MS/AL coast northwest flow will remain in place through Saturday
night. Winds will remain in the 10-15 knot range over that time and
then quickly slack off as the sfc low fills in. Moderate onshore
flow will develop Monday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  72  52  64 /   0  50  30  10
BTR  54  77  53  65 /   0  40  20   0
ASD  50  75  52  66 /   0  40  30   0
MSY  57  76  57  65 /   0  40  30   0
GPT  53  70  53  64 /   0  40  30   0
PQL  50  74  52  68 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.