967
FXUS64 KLIX 240301
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
901 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Overall, forecast is in good shape. temperatures falling through
the 30s in most areas, and likely to reach the freezing mark.
While forecast lows could be a degree or two on the chilly side,
the fact that we have about 10 hours to go to sunrise, don`t feel
comfortable raising them any.

Will send the evening marine update shortly. but currently don`t
have any plans to update the ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Finally much of the area was able to climb into the mid 40s to lower
50s. This definitely had an impact on the snow and ice over the
area. Many locations that have been shaded from the sun though are
still holding onto the snow and will take another day maybe even a
second to completely get rid of but by tomorrow afternoon we should
be almost snow/ice free.

Even though the snow and ice is melting and evaporating we are still
going to be chilly. The trough axis is off to our northwest and will
swing through the Lower MS Valley tomorrow. But we quickly move into
zonal flow as the mid lvl flatten out across the central and eastern
CONUS. This will bring about a progressive pattern into the area
and we will see big difference this weekend from where we were 36
hours ago. High pressure builds in tonight with light northerly
winds still in place. The cirrus that was streaming over the area is
pulling away to the east and a decent radiational cooling night is
in store. Now we will not be anywhere close to what we saw the
previous 3 nights but it will still be a cold one with dewpoints
tanking into teens and mid 20s. Lows tonight will drop towards and
moderate to hard freeze across much of the area. Winds will be
fairly light tonight but still around 4-6 mph out of the north,
especially south and southwest of the tidal lakes. This will present
slightly colder wind chills tonight than the actual temperature.
With actual lows and/or wind chills drop down to or below 25 again
tonight across the entire area we issued another Cold Weather
Advisory for all areas along and south of I-10/12. Temperatures will
climb above freezing even faster tomorrow morning with highs in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

Friday night could actually be slightly colder than tonight for the
northern and especially areas east of I-59. High pressure will be
directly centered over the area going into the evening but it will
slowly slide northeast through the night. This will allow the ridge
to wedge into the area from the northeast and usually very favorable
for cold air drainage across the area. This should lead to the
PAscagoula and Pearl drainage areas to drop quite a bit again with
another night of light to hard freezes across the region. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Heading into the weekend we will start moderating and seeing the
moisture recover over the area. The zonal flow aloft will likely
send one or two subtle impulses across the area late this weekend
and into the new work week. That along with an inverted trough
draped across the Lower MS Valley Sunday night and into Monday may
spark showers and perhaps one or two rumbles of thunder but that is
not looking too likely. With the fast zonal flow overhead we will
slowly moderate through the work week with mid to upper 60s expected
by Tuesday and even a few 70s by Wednesday. Morning lows will also
slowly climb with mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday morning and upper 40s
to mid 50s by Wednesday. Next shot for some decent rain looks to be
late in the week as a potent closed low tries to work east across
the 4 corners. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Overall, anticipate VFR conditions through the forecast period.
There`s a small potential for shallow fog/freezing fog overnight,
probably at KHUM if any occurs at all, but threat is too low to
carry as a prevailing condition at this time.

Likely to be a brief period of mid or high clouds with trough
passage tomorrow, but with cloud bases expected above FL100, no
major impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

High pressure will dominate the region but with it still centered
off to the WNW tonight northerly to northeasterly winds will
continue to and could approach 12 to 15 kts over the outer waters,
especially west of the mouth of the river. High rpessure this
moves directly over the area tomorrow and continues to push NE
overnight with return flow trying to quickly set back up Saturday
morning. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  23  47  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  25  50  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  25  51  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  31  49  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  26  48  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  22  51  23  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for LAZ046>048-
     056>060-064>070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...CAB