Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 290002
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
702 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020


.AVIATION...

Tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts will
continue at KSMY/KNEW/KASD/KGPT over the next few hours as Zeta
quickly tracks across and exits the area. Winds will weaken
considerably by 06z or earlier. IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings
will linger through 09-11z before dry, cooler air behind Hurricane
Zeta advects across the area, improving conditions to MVFR/VFR.
Gusty, post-frontal west to northwest winds between 15-25 knots
are expected at each TAF site tomorrow (Thursday).


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

SYNOPSIS...

Hurricane Zeta made landfall at 4 PM CDT near Cocodrie, Louisiana
as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 95 knot/110 mph winds. Storm
accelerating northeast around 25 mph and will cross the CWA in
next 6-8 hours.

SHORT TERM...

The only real forecast issue is Zeta, which will be out of the
picture by tomorrow morning. Trailing upper low behind Zeta will
already be off the coast Friday, with weak upper ridging moving
into the area. Much cooler and drier air behind the hurricane
with overnight lows Friday morning 30 to 35 degrees cooler than
this morning...in the 40s for most of the area. High temperatures
mainly in the 60s to around 70 for Thursday and Friday. Highs 70
to 75 Saturday.

LONG TERM...

Strong upper trough moving across the Great Lakes will push a re-
inforcing cold front through the area on Sunday. No significant
precipitation expected through much or all of next week.
Temperatures in the lower and mid 70s Sunday as the front moves
through, but only in the lower and mid 60s on Monday, at least 10
degrees below normal. Some locations could see lows in the upper
30s Tuesday morning before temperatures start to moderate toward
normal by midweek.

MARINE...

Obviously, dangerous conditions across all coastal waters tonight,
with some improvement by sunrise. Still likely to require at least
Exercise Caution headlines across at least the open waters into
Friday or Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  55  66  45 /  90  70   0   0
BTR  80  51  65  45 /  80  40   0   0
ASD  80  56  68  45 / 100  90   0   0
MSY  80  56  67  50 / 100  70   0   0
GPT  79  61  70  47 / 100  90  10   0
PQL  82  64  74  45 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Warning for LAZ039-040-049-050-056>070-072.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ040-058-062-064-066>070.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ039-040-058>070-072.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ037-071.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ050.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ077-080>082.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ080>082.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ071-077-080>082.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ070-071.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

&&

$$


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