Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

353
FXUS64 KLIX 220921
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
421 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed a deep 992mb low over NY/NJ with a
trailing cold front south/southwest to Georgia to east central
Mississippi. A 1022mb high was located eastern Oklahoma and
Arkansas pressure gradient relaxed with a mb change from the high
to our forecast area. Upper air analysis showed the main trough
axis slightly negatively tilted from Hudson Bay to the Mid
Atlantic States and northwest flow over Mississippi Valley this
morning. In addition, a cyclonic circulation was located over
Utah.

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough will remain on the east coast. However, the
system over Utah will move west over the Central Plains late
Friday. The approaching system will increase heights over the
Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday. While not a true ridge
ahead of this system, the slight warming trend will continue with
afternoon temperatures for today and Saturday about 5 degrees
warmer than yesterday. All in all, weather will remain dry and
spring like through the weekend.

The system will push east Sunday through Monday. Several
disturbances will provide a push southeast from southern Arkansas
to northeast gulf on Monday. Surface base cape values of 800 to
1000 j/kg will be available but positively tilted trough axis will
yield 0-3km helicity 100 m/s midday Monday. Will maintain
isolated TS with generally scattered showers. Rain threat will
push south Monday night with drying Tuesday behind the cold front.
Slight cold air advection will knock down temps back to near
normal for late March.

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period for
all terminals. -BL

&&

.MARINE...High pressure currently in place will move eastward
tomorrow afternoon.  Winds will generally be light but the winds
will shift to onshore flow Saturday as the high pressure moves away.
The next real chance of rain and stronger winds will be on Monday as
a cold front moves through the area. -BL

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River Flood Warnings

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue =  Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
        visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory
         issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =   Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive
        rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  70  52  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  68  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  43  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.