Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
567 FXUS64 KLIX 311759 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the week as an active weather pattern sets in across the local area. - While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. - Tropical Depression Five (TD 5) may strengthen to Tropical Storm Eduoard later today. At this time, local impacts are expected to remain limited to marine areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Upper ridge was centered along the Arkansas-Missouri border this morning, with newly designated Tropical Depression Five (TD 5) about 130 miles south of Morgan City. To this point of the morning, convection over land in our area has been rather minimal, but do expect some uptick in areal coverage over the next few hours. Temperatures generally 85 to 90 at noon CDT with dew points in the mid 70s. Per NHC forecasts, TD 5 is expected to move away from the local area and reach the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday. No major impacts are anticipated over our land areas today or tonight, although an increase in areal coverage of precipitation, compared to the present, is expected this afternoon. Center of upper ridge drifts slowly eastward over the next few days and will be along the Kentucky-Tennessee border on Thursday. Another weak low pressure is expected to be in the eastern Gulf at mid-week to the south of the upper ridge, but not a lot of agreement between the GFS and ECMWF as to how far west it may move in that time. Precipitable water values continue to run mainly between the 75th and 90th percentiles through Thursday, which should support scattered to numerous showers and storms over land each day with brief heavy downpours. Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall is primarily in case those heavy downpours occur in sensitive (urban) areas. At least for now, antecedent conditions don`t justify any need for watches. Highs likely to top out in the 90 to 95 degree range at most each day, with convective temperatures not getting above that point. Did back off hourly dew points a degree or two during the day, as conditions and guidance don`t support the NBM forecasts in the afternoons. Heat index values should remain just below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Medium range models gradually rebuild the upper ridge westward over the weekend, with it centered over Kansas/Oklahoma by next Monday. Not a lot of agreement at this point regarding timing, strength or location of any upper trough or surface low pressure moving across the local area south of the upper ridge. The operational global models would lean toward the ECMWF as a bit wetter solution, but neither would indicate any day as being completely dry, or a total washout. Any outdoor activities during the holiday weekend should plan for potential interruptions, but those interruptions could be fairly brief. No significant cooling anticipated over the next week. If conditions end up a bit drier than anticipated, highs could again get into the middle 90s over the weekend, which may necessitate Heat Advisories. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Cumulus field across the area has produced scattered MVFR ceilings and isolated SHRA/TSRA. The TSRA could produce brief IFR visibilities in some areas. Wouldn`t rule out one or two wind gusts to 35 knots or so, as happened at KMSY this morning. Most convection should dissipate toward evening. Overnight, mainly VFR, although visibility restrictions possible where rain occurs this afternoon and winds go calm. Only fog mention in current forecast is at KMCB though. Tuesday not much different than today with SHRA/TSRA redeveloping by late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Depression Five (TD 5) is forecast to continue to move west-northwest through Tuesday, reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for our far western waters, including Terrebonne Bay, through the overnight hours tonight before TD 5 gets far enough away for winds/seas to diminish. Otherwise, winds should remain near or below 15 knots through the forecast period outside of thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ541-551-570. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ551-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW