984
FXUS64 KLIX 220504 CCA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1204 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Extreme heat warning has been issued for today as heat indices
  look to increase to 110-115 degrees over most of the area. A
  heat avisory has been issued for coastal Mississippi with
  readings of 105-112 expected today.

- Abnormal impacts are expected as Tropical Storm Bertha moves
  west over the Louisiana gulf coast today with hot, dry and
  breezy conditions inland while rainfall, breezy conditions along
  with coastal flooding at the coast (mainly south of I-10).
  Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in place for coastal
  areas along and south of I-10.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Abnormal tropical storm conditions is putting it lightly. I for
one have never seen a tropical storm warning and a heat
advisory/warning for the same time frame in the same area. But
here we are. The northern half of the area will only notice the
wind speeds rise with a tstorm possibly moving through but for the
most part will be very hot and dry. As one moves closer to the
coast, this is where the more typical conditions for tropical
activity should be found. But even here, it will not be to the
degree that one would expect. Rainfall will occur along with some
storms but getting more than an inch of rain will be tough to do
even right at the coast. Coastal flooding is expected but also not
to the degree one would think either. Cloud cover is the biggest
question mark at this point as it is unclear how far the low level
rotating deck of clouds will get and remain long enough inland.
We are sure this deck won`t make it to the northern half of the
area(maybe a fair wx cu field) but the southern half is
questionable. Obviously where this deck is able to persist, the
temps and heat index will be lower and this is the reason for the
advisory part of the thinking. The deep convective cloud cover
will quickly get forced to the SW, so basically, all we will
depend on is the low level deck or swirl of clouds as high
pressure continues to build from the north. We will be leaving
all heat products in place for now since the extent inland of
cloud cover is still questionable from this low level deck. Will
some areas near the coast not reach heat warning criteria? That
is a very likely scenario, but this would most likely be within a
few parishes deep of the coast. As we move into Thursday, things
will begin to improve as far as any rainfall and winds, but the
heat will continue right through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Surface and upper-level ridging should expand across the central
Gulf Coast during the weekend as the remnants of Bertha move farther
west and dissipates. Increasing subsidence and somewhat lower deep-
layer moisture should reduce the shower/storm coverage compared with
the middle of the week. However, sufficient moisture will remain for
isolated to scattered afternoon convection along the sea breeze,
lake breeze, and any remnant outflow boundaries.
Rain chances should generally remain in the 20-40 percent range into
Sunday, with the greatest coverage during peak afternoon heating.
With weak steering flow, any storm that develops could produce
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds,
but there is no current signal for organized severe weather or a
widespread heavy rainfall event.

Heat will again become the primary concern during the weekend and
early next week. High temps should generally reach the low to mid
90s, with locally upper 90s possible across northern and western
portions of the area, Persistent dewpoints in the upper 70s could
produce afternoon heat indices between 105 and 110, potentially
requiring additional heat headlines.

The ridging may strengthen even further on Monday and Tuesday, which
would favor slightly lower rain chances and continued above-normal
temperatures. Confidence is moderate in the overall hot and mainly
diurnal-driven convective pattern, but lower regarding daily
thunderstorm coverage and whether the center of the ridge is strong
enough to largely suppress convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Terminals over the southern half of the area MVFR cigs
are expected. PROB30 groups will time the SHRA and TSRA. Winds will
be at 20-25 knots shifting from northerly to southerly as Bertha
moves through. HDC, MCB, BTR will remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The center of Tropical Storm Bertha will move west along the
Louisiana gulf coast today through Thursday. As the system moves
over our local waters, expect winds and seas to increase with
tropical storm conditions possible for most if not all the local
waters. The system will move west of the region Thursday and
conditions should improve going into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ058-094-096.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ064-070-076>078-087-089>093-095-
     097>100.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ058-077-
     080-082-093-095-097-098.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ070-076-078-
     091.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ529.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-
     570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ083>085.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ086>088.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MSZ068>071-077.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ083>088.

GM...     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE