444
FXUS64 KLIX 171139
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

I can see clearly now that rain has ended...for a few hours. Yep
thats right more storms can be expected today and tomorrow and
Thursday..and.......There is already a few showers and a few
thunderstorms that have been trying to develop overnight and once
the sun comes up storms will quickly start to percolate again.

Nothing has changed and nothing looks to really change for at least
another 48 to 60 hours. We remain between two ridges with the Lower
MS Valley in the middle of a weakness and even some troughiness.
with no real suppression in place and moisture abundant it won`t
take much to get convection and then once a few storms get going all
it takes is boundary interaction. If storms fire very early then
they will likely move through quickly but that would allow for
additional storms later in the afternoon and early evening as it
will not take anything for us to recover and destabilize. If storms
hold off till late morning/midday then we will likely see one more
prolonged round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon
with things quickly quieting down mid/late evening. Favoring more of
a 2 clusters of storms approach today given what looks like
convection trying to fire already just off to our southwest.

The best things about the numerous storms and cloud cover is it does
help contain the afternoon temps some with most of the area only
getting into the upper 80s with a few lower 90s. That said can`t
really say it is much of a relief as the heat index is still
climbing into the mid to upper 90s today. However tomorrow and
through the week the heat index could be a bigger issue as low level
moisture looks to increase with the afternoon heat index back in
the low 100s for a good chunk of the area. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Well if you are ready for Summer it looks like it will finally
arrive by the end of the work week and through the weekend. That
said rain chances will still remain elevated they will just not be
as high as we have been dealing with and storms will likely be a
little more scattered. Models are in good agreement with the
evolution of the pattern so confidence is high in the forecast.
NBM may be a touch too high with the PoPs but afternoon highs and
morning lows look pretty good so no deviations made from the
latest NBM values.

Mid lvl pattern finally shifts with our ridge to the west sliding
east and building. By late Friday it will be centered over the Lower
MS Valley but it will only be a 593dm ridge which is not that stout
and with PWs still above 1.8" this may act a little more like a
dirty ridge. In addition the center of the ridge will be well north
of the area putting us on the southern periphery of it which guess
what, yep keeps the elevated rain chances over the area. PoPs will
be around 40-60% which is a far cry from the constant 70-90% we have
been seeing but still well above normal of 20-40%. H925 temps around
24-25C which if there is less rain and cloud cover should yield a
few more mid 90s but given the likelihood of scattered storms and
clouds isolated highs around 93-94 may be the best we see Friday,
not complaining.

This weekend the ridge will continue to build and by Sunday could be
597dm which is quite a bit stronger the problem is, it will be be
centered over the Ohio Valley. With it displaced so far to the NNE
we will be well into the easterlies which should yield daily
convection with each weak easterly wave that moves across the
northern Gulf and into the area. So yes slightly lower PoPs than now
but still pretty darn good chance of seeing storms for much of the
area.

One thing to mention is we will need to keep a closer eye on the
heat index Friday and through the weekend. If highs are able to get
into the mid 90s, the boundary layer will be very humid and the heat
index values will climb above 100 possibly approaching the mid 100s
for a few locations. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

With the exception of MCB all terminals are in VFR status and MCB
will be back in VFR status as this low stratus quickly burns off
in the next hour. Biggest issue is the same as it has been the
last week, convection. Storms are already trying to pop to our
southwest and those along with additional storms will likely begin
to impact terminals by 16/17Z. Obviously with convection, reductions
in cigs and vsbys are expected. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Overall, benign marine conditions expected through the cycle a
high pressure dominates the region. Winds should generally be
moderate at max with some gusts up to 15 knots or so toward the
end of the week as surface high pressure interacts with the
leeside trough across the high plains. Otherwise, diurnally driven
convection typical for this time of year can be expected with
locally higher winds and seas in the heaviest convection. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  90  73 /  80  40  60  10
BTR  90  74  91  75 /  80  40  70  10
ASD  88  74  91  75 /  80  40  70  10
MSY  89  78  92  78 /  80  50  80  10
GPT  86  78  89  77 /  70  40  70  30
PQL  88  74  89  75 /  80  30  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB