Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
019 FXUS64 KLIX 051721 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Starting off with this afternoon and taking a glance at the synoptic overview shows mainly quiet/calm conditions across the area, dominated by weak mid-level flow and subtle/weak high at the surface. To our NW, a well-defined front, associated with a deep sub 990mb surface low north of the Great Lakes contains much cooler/drier air filtering into the northern US which (thankfully) will be headed our way this weekend, but more about that shortly. The 12Z KLIX RAOB and 12Z HRRR forecast soundings shows plenty of dry air in the low to mid-troposphere, all above a well-mixed dry adiabatic mixed layer. Just enough moisture/positive buoyancy residing at/above the LCL to produce a cumulus field, but the aforementioned dry air aloft supported by compressional warming is keeping a lid on vertical development. Meanwhile aloft in the upper-levels, a strong ridge centered over north-central MX and deep troughing over the northern US will surge moisture east, in the form of upper-level clouds/cirrus overnight into tomorrow. Should`nt cause much, if any issues with temperatures but something to keep note of. No adjustments to temperatures this afternoon into tonight were needed. Going into Saturday, the front approaches the area steadily with time from the north entering out area. Seeing recent HRRR runs sprinkle a few pop-up showers/storms here and there which was reflected by the latest 13Z NBM (HRRR higher weight) with 15-25% PoP`s. Taking a closer look, appears plausible given an increase in low-level moisture and attendant frontogenetic lift to squeeze out a couple of showers or storms, moreso collocated to regions of best/greatest mesoscale forcing (any seabreeze/lakebreeze development aiding in sfc confluence). Definitely won`t rain everywhere, but something to keep in mind. Again, no adjustments needed as Saturday is looking like a nice day! KLG && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Sunday into early next week, the aforementioned front slows/stalls into the northern/central Gulf, allowing much drier even cooler air to continue to filter into the region. Ah yes, the moment we`ve been waiting for as many are eager for the first signs of fall! It`s looking notably more comfortable, particularly Monday and Tuesday as the bulk of the driest air builds into the region. Did apply a very subtle lower bias in temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning, to account for recent NBM bias as we`re peaking into the first signs of a seasonal transition, still bringing many into the low to mid 60`s especially along the I-10/12 corridor on north. Additionally, did apply a minor lowering to dewpoints during the afternoon to account for peak afternoon PBL mixing within this dry airmass, making MinRH`s reach the mid to lower 30`s across the northern half of the area both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Without a doubt, it`ll feel different albeit highs still reaching the upper 80`s to low 90`s. The continued higher sun angle will still feel hot in the sun, but mornings/evenings will be very pleasant with the lower humidity. No further adjustments required beyond into the long range. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain light at around 5-8kts this afternoon ranging from the E to SE, lowering going into tonight with cumulus dissipating around sunset. SKC to FEW250 overnight with no impacts through the rest of the cycle. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Generally weak easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across marine areas through the next few days into Saturday. On Sunday, a front will pass through marine waters introducing gusty winds from the northeast on the order of 10-15kts for all marine areas, with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots which will likely reach Small Craft exercise caution criteria Sunday and Monday, and could briefly touch Advisory criteria especially early Monday. Waves/seas will respond to around 2-3ft for protected waters to 3-6ft for outer Gulf waters. Conditions improve going int on the middle of next week with progressive easterly flow, albeit still breezy at around 10-15kts which will keep waves/seas slightly elevated at 1-2ft for protected waters to 2-4ft for outer Gulf waters. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 89 68 87 / 10 20 0 10 BTR 73 92 71 90 / 0 20 0 10 ASD 70 91 70 90 / 0 20 0 10 MSY 76 93 76 92 / 0 20 0 10 GPT 72 91 72 91 / 0 20 0 10 PQL 70 92 70 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...KLG MARINE...KLG