Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
567 FXUS64 KLIX 261049 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 549 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 544 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Upper ridging continues to be parked over New Mexico, and doesn`t look like it is going to budge much for the next few days. It may drift a bit west to the Arizona state line by Saturday morning. That may be just far enough west to allow a MCS to move through the area late tonight and Thursday with at least borderline potential for wind damage and heavy rainfall. It`s this particular impulse that gives the most concern with excessive rainfall. Not enough confidence for Flood Watches, yet. Today, Friday and Saturday are going to look a lot like each other regarding thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day, but not everyone will see storms each day. High temperatures will get back into the mid and upper 90s today before storms start developing. Today will be the hottest day the rest of the month, as the eastern end of the ridge will be over us. Storm development probably won`t occur until after we get beyond noon each day. That`ll still allow us to get into the 90 to 95 range in most of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 By the second half of the weekend, the upper low over eastern Canada will shift eastward and ridging will try to build in underneath it across the southeastern CONUS. At the same time, much of the guidance envelope now indicates a plume of deep tropical moisture will slide into the northern Gulf and into the local area. This is a relatively big change from yesterday`s forecast, but not far from what was carried in the afternoon forecast package. Suffice it to say, there`s more than normal uncertainty going into the extended given the big shift in the last 24 hours. If this trend holds, though, Sunday and Monday could be quite wet with potential for locally heavy rain. By Tuesday, the axis of deeper moisture moves a bit away from the area, though there should still be enough moisture in place to result in scattered showers and storms. Will continue to monitor trends and expect the forecast to undergo additional adjustments as the situation becomes clearer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Terminals have generally been VFR this morning, but won`t totally rule out a little bit of ground fog for the next hour or so until the sun gets up. Expect scattered TSRA to start developing around 18z or so, continuing until near sunset, with PROB30 most common. Beyond that point, there`s some concern about an MCS dropping into the area late tonight from the northwest. some of the convective models bring it just to the northwest edge of the CWA around 05z or so and then dissipate it. Redevelopment indicated before sunrise, and becoming more significant by mid-morning Thursday. Will use PROB30 beyond about 09z, and in the case of KMSY, which goes 6 hours further out, have a TEMPO starting at 15z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly and westerly will predominate through the week. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW