Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
796 FXUS64 KLIX 061049 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 549 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 504 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 - Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The difference today will be the first crop of thermals will be home grown just like yesterday with the greatest coverage over the western half of the area. The second crop will be developing to the NW of the area in and around the Texarkana region by late afternoon. This new development will move SE toward the area but the limiting factor will be time as it will be just after sunset that these cells begin their approach to the area so they should be weakening. A few of these could reach the area but shouldn`t be much more than some left over lightning and showers. This is very mesoscale in scope so it will take getting closer to development and movement before this can be deciphered. The same strength argument will hold as far as downbursting winds and waterspout/weak tornadic probabilities. Heavy rainfall will always be possible with these type of storms, when there is good cell movement, rainfall accums don`t stack up very well, but when cells don`t move much, that`s when it can be an issue. The higher numbers will hold into Tue and possibly even Wed before some drying of PW values cause precip numbers to fall a bit as we move into Thu. All that just to say this is very typical for this time of year. Although some years can be a bit drier, our normal precip distribution is around 30%, give or take 10%, on a daily basis. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Going into next week there will be a weak H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and northeastern Gulf. This will continue to promote slightly above average temperatures across much of the southeast. However, being on the western periphery of this ridge will also place our area in a more active southwest flow aloft, which with correctly timed upper impulses within the flow will continue to enhance the potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially during peak heating over our landbased zones (overnight and morning over the marine zones). The best QPF signal appears to be slightly displaced to our north where a more pronounced weakness resides over the midsouth, however, we will likely see some modest upper support with plenty of surface triggers around (mesoscale boundaries) to keep at least some coverage of convection despite the weak ridge in somewhat close proximity. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 and prevailing groups as coverage will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Along and west of a line from MCB to NEW is where most if not all terminals will be impacted at some time today by TSRA producing at most MVFR conditions temporarily. Elsewhere, chances will fall into PROB30 grouping. All activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then from a SE direction by the end of the week but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE